The real Hall of Fame debate: Pedro or the Big Unit?

Randy Johnson's first-time Hall of Fame candidacy has prompted discussions of his place as possibly the best left-handed pitcher in baseball history.

But the certain enshrinee when voting is announced today can't even claim with certainty to be the best pitcher on this year's ballot.

Pedro Martinez joins Johnson as today's sure things – so much so that the specter has been raised again of a first-ever but still unlikely unanimous selection.

The borderline candidacies, near-misses, PED connections and perceived slights will be debated all the way to next year's announcement and beyond.

Meanwhile, welcome to the Hall of Fame, guys. What's left to debate – other than who was the better pitcher?

Voting totals won't really provide a clue to Martinez and Johnson's ranking among the electorate. It's difficult to imagine anyone deciding either pitcher isn't eventually deserving of Cooperstown. If one of them gets more votes than the other today, it's more a matter of a couple of individuals assigning value to that old first-ballot argument.

So what of the two greatest pitchers to ever be traded by the Montreal Expos?

They provide a wonderful case of making numbers support whatever you believe in the first place.

Martinez pitched 18 seasons, but longevity works against him in this discussion. Johnson was the most physically intimidating pitcher of his era, yet if it's dominance you desire – advantage Pedro.

It's easy to close your eyes – as most of us would do if we ever stepped into a batter's box against him – and imagine Johnson glaring just over his glove before he went into the windup that seemingly would end halfway to home plate.

He looked angry … mean … and wanted you to think so.

Pedro might on one day proceed with an apparent indifference toward whoever might be batting. On another, you might think you perceive a smirk … just before he buzzed one under your chin. If anyone was likely to be angry with Martinez on the mound, it was the batter or the faux-brave folks chirping from the bench or the enraged masses screaming from the stands.

"Nasty" has morphed into an adjective about stuff. These guys were old-school nasty, when the word described the pitchers, not the pitches.

Don't forget, Martinez led the league in hit batters back when he pitched for the Expos – that is, when he batted. He once had Reggie Sanders rush the mound when Pedro hit him during the eighth inning of a perfect-game bid. But Pedro also rushed the mound one day when he was drilled by the Phillies' Mike Williams.

In other words, bring it on.

These are guys with not only the stats but the personas that rank at the Hall of Fame level for baseball lore.

What of those stats, though?

Johnson is second all-time in strikeouts and No. 1 in strikeouts per nine innings, hardly shocking to anyone with even a cursory memory of watching him pitch. But Martinez is third all-time in strikeouts per nine.

The difference is longevity. Johnson pitched 22 seasons to Martinez's 18, but the innings gap is gaping – 4,135 to 2,827. Obviously, there's something to be said for the durability of one man a foot taller than the other.

But Martinez hardly comes up short on his peak period of dominance. In fact, this is where he thrusts himself into the discussion of the best pitcher … ever … for at least one significant chunk of time.

Johnson has a clear advantage in career Wins Above Replacement, a cumulative number. He amassed a 104.3 pitching WAR, ninth-best all-time. Martinez is 17 ^th at 86.

Now, take ERA-plus, the number that compares a pitcher's performance with league averages for the period being measured. The adjusted version of ERA-plus even accounts for the pitcher's home park – certainly a factor for Johnson's years in Seattle's Kingdome.

During the 2000 season, Martinez's ERA-plus was 291. That's the highest post-1900 number for a season. Martinez, Greg Maddux and Walter Johnson are the only pitchers with two of the Top 10 single seasons in ERA-plus. But Pedro has five of the 34 post-1900 seasons of 200 or better – something nobody else can match.

That's more than enough time for a peak period of consequence.

Sandy Koufax, the other modern product in the best-lefty discussion, had his career cut short after 12 seasons. That final year, he had a career-best 190 ERA-plus, one of two times he led the National League.

Simply said, no pitcher dominated his era at his peak like Martinez. He led his league five times.

Johnson? His highest ERA-plus was 195, but he did lead his league six times. And he produced one of the game's most amazing small-sample periods of dominance in 1998, when he was traded from Seattle to Houston for the stretch drive.

Johnson was 10-1 with a 1.28 ERA for the Astros but his ERA-plus was a staggering 322 for those two months.

In the end, though, Johnson's career ERA-plus was 135, well below the 154 that ranks Martinez No. 1 all-time among starters. As a bit of perspective, right behind Martinez on the career list is Clayton Kershaw at 151. Koufax is at 131.

The only higher number among pitchers with at least 1,000 innings is the 205 by Mariano Rivera – still four years from Hall eligibility. Maybe that's when we can have that unanimous-vote discussion.

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