Organizational report: Tigers need rejuvenated Verlander
As they begin their quest for a fifth consecutive division title, the Detroit Tigers have an undeniably different look.
Gone are two-fifths of the rotation, including 2013 Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer, who parted amicably for a record $210 million deal with the Washington Nationals.
In is left fielder Yoenis Cespedes, acquired in a swap of pending free agents for right-handed pitcher Rick Porcello, as the Tigers opt for power at the plate and afield over a steady fifth starter.
And their fate this season surely will be tied to how one-third of their lineup — first baseman Miguel Cabrera, DH Victor Martinez and shortstop Jose Iglesias — recover from offseason surgeries and ailments.
Yet for all the change and flux, the longest-tenured Tiger might be the most important one.
Justin Verlander had his offseason surgery a year ago, a procedure that repaired core muscles around his left hip and robbed him of a winter of weight training and conditioning.
The ailments contributed significantly to his career-worst season in 2014, when he gave up 104 earned runs — most in the American League — while posting a 4.54 ERA and allowing nearly 10 hits per nine innings. That continued a gradual slide since Verlander won both the AL's Cy Young and MVP awards in 2011, a period during which Scherzer claimed the distinction of Tigers ace.
Now, Scherzer is gone. And a reversal of fortune from Verlander — signed to a seven-year, $180 million deal before the 2013 season — is paramount.
"Justin's just very important to us, under any circumstance," general manager Dave Dombrowski told Paste BN Sports. "You look at Max, a tremendous pitcher, leaving, it puts a lot on your other guys. He's had a healthy offseason; he's worked very hard. He feels great. He had no issues this winter at all."
Indeed, Verlander told reporters on the Tigers' winter fan caravan that he regained 20 pounds of muscle in the weight room and said his pitching mechanics weren't impeded as they were last year.
But his turnaround won't be fully tied to improved health. Verlander turns 32 on Feb. 20, the day Tigers pitchers and catchers hold their first workout. Even before his core problems, Verlander's average fastball velocity was on the decline, from 95 mph in 2011 to 93.1 last year, according to FanGraphs.
Dombrowski says the club hardly expects him to turn into a soft tosser. But when a pitcher can't reach back and hit 98 mph — or 100 — in tight spots, adjustments are necessary.
"I think it's important for him to evolve. I think he understands it," Dombrowski says. "When we signed him to the contract, we figured there would be adjustments he'd need to make. A Nolan Ryan is rare.
"Guys you think of being hard throwers, in their 30s, they make adjustments. He has the repertoire to do so. With Justin, his work ethic and determination and striving for excellence is unsurpassed. This guy is very dedicated to being at the top of his game."
If he is, the Tigers are plenty scary.
David Price, like Scherzer last year, has a Cy Young Award on his résumé and likely will test free agency in November. Price, a rejuvenated Verlander and a healthier Anibal Sanchez would give Detroit a top three that any AL club would be hard-pressed to match.
Although a well-fortified Chicago White Sox club might pose the biggest threat to Detroit's AL Central reign, the Tigers have adjusted as well.
And different doesn't have to mean inferior.
"There have been more changes than normally is the case," Dombrowski says. "But we like our club as it shapes up."
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Where the Tigers stand at each position (*prospect):
Catcher: The Alex Avila era continues, but the end might be in sight. Avila, 28, is eligible for free agency after this season at a time his offensive production and health continue to suffer. He batted a career-low .218, and his slugging percentage of .359 continued a steady decline from a high of .506 in 2011. Concussions limited him to 124 games. Meanwhile, top catching prospect James McCann, who made his debut in September, might be poised to wrest the backup job from Bryan Holaday. McCann is an excellent defender who remains a bit unproven at the plate — he's a .261 career hitter in the minors — but at 24 has significant room for improvement.
Depth chart: Avila, Holaday, *McCann, Martinez.
First base: Pitchers and catchers don't report until Feb. 20, but a more important date looms before that: Feb. 15, when Miguel Cabrera's surgically repaired right ankle will be re-evaluated. Cabrera should be ready by opening day, barring significant setbacks, but it remains to be seen how his strength might be affected, particularly early on. He played through bone spurs and a stress fracture last season and still hit .313, but his 25 homers in 159 games were his fewest since 2006. Cabrera turns 32 in April and is due $262 million through 2023. Even with the injury blip, he shows little sign of being anything less than one of the game's most feared and productive hitters.
Depth chart: Cabrera, Martinez, Avila.
Second base: The Prince Fielder-Ian Kinsler trade is already a huge win for Detroit. As Fielder sat out almost the entire season in 2014, Kinsler played in 161 games, scored 100 runs, amassed 188 hits — 61 for extra bases — and solidified the top of their lineup. Kinsler turns 33 in June and only once has played at least 150 games in consecutive seasons. Even with some drop-off because of age, a healthy Kinsler gives them an upper-tier second baseman. He's signed through at least 2017, and good thing. The trade of Eugenio Suarez to the Cincinnati Reds leaves the Tigers thin in the middle infield at the upper levels of the organization.
Depth chart: Kinsler, Hernan Perez, Andrew Romine.
Third base: Nick Castellanos is progressing about as the Tigers had hoped: Their top young power hitter turns 23 in March and comes off a rookie year highlighted by 46 extra-base hits and serviceable defensive play. If his minor league progression is any indication, the homers will rise and the strikeouts fall as he ages. Dombrowski notes the club has the luxury of batting him seventh, which alleviates pressure to produce while affording him many chances to bat with runners on base.
Depth chart: Castellanos, Perez, Romine.
Shortstop: After the Tigers essentially punted the position in 2014, Jose Iglesias returns after stress fractures in each leg sunk his sophomore season. Iglesias should be close to full strength by the start of the year. At 25, he also should be easing into strong production. The position figures to be his for several years.
Depth chart: Iglesias, Romine, Perez, *Dixon Machado.
Left field: A position manned in recent seasons by the likes of Andy Dirks, Brennan Boesch and Rajai Davis will feature Cespedes, who gives Detroit significant pop and a good defensive profile for Comerica Park. Cespedes averages 28 homers over 162 games and has one of the best outfield arms in the game. His presence lengthens the Tigers lineup and gives their outfield a strong defensive presence.
Depth chart: Cespedes, Davis, Daniel Fields.
Center field: In Anthony Gose, the Tigers turn the job over to a player Dombrowski admits is in "a developmental phase offensively." But Gose is a potentially elite defender who displayed decent on-base skills in the minor leagues. Ideally, he hits his way to the top of the lineup. More likely, he serves an offensive apprenticeship, with Davis available to start against left-handed pitchers.
Depth chart: Gose, Davis, Tyler Collins.
Right field: Perhaps no major leaguer surprised as much as J.D. Martinez in 2014. Never able to win a full-time job with the Houston Astros, Martinez flourished after being released in March and snapped up by the Tigers. He hit 23 homers. Now, he goes from surprise jewel to necessity: Torii Hunter is gone, and Detroit will forfeit significant offense in center with Gose and Davis there from the start of the year. Martinez's on-base-plus-slugging percentage (OPS) dropped from 1.035 to .820 from the first to the second half, and his strikeout rate jumped to one per 3.52 plate appearances, compared with 4.27. The Tigers likely can't afford a major dip.
Depth chart: Martinez, Davis, *Steven Moya.
Designated hitter: One could make a case Victor Martinez has matured into the best hitter in baseball; the Tigers wasted no time locking him up to a four-year, $68 million deal Nov. 12. In 2014,his .409 on-base percentage and .974 OPS led the American League, and he was the MVP runner-up. But knee surgery to repair meniscus will possibly put him out for Opening Day, and he's 36. Those factors surely will dampen his power numbers. Still, his plate approach and hitting skills all but guarantee he'll remain an excellent complement to Cabrera in the middle of the lineup.
Depth chart: Martinez, Cabrera.
Starting pitchers: Two years ago, the starting quintet went 75-40. Gone from that group are Scherzer, Doug Fister and Porcello. Verlander and Sanchez remain, and Price, the 2012 AL Cy Young Award winner, has joined them, but the back end of the rotation is filled by trade acquisitions Shane Greene and Alfredo Simon. Greene is promising but unproven, with 782/3 career innings. Simon was an All-Star last season with the Cincinnati Reds. But in reaching a career-high 1961/3 innings pitched, he posted a 4.52 ERA and 1.44 WHIP (walks plus hits per inning pitched) in the second half. He was 12-3 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.05 WHIP before the break. With that in mind, Kyle Lobstein, who made six starts last season, might play a significant role by season's end.
Depth chart: Price, Verlander, Sanchez, Greene, Simon, Lobstein, Drew VerHagen.
Bullpen: It was a sore spot all season and an absolute blight in the postseason, when the Baltimore Orioles turned close games into late-inning blowouts. Yet it should be an improved unit this season. Joe Nathan, 40, is coming off the worst season of his career — he posted a 1.53 WHIP and blew seven saves — but, in theory, can't do any worse. Joakim Soria, acquired in July and then lost to the disabled list shortly thereafter, is expected to be around for the entire season and could step in should Nathan stumble again. His presence means hard-throwing Bruce Rondon can continue his recovery from Tommy John elbow surgery in lower-leverage situations.
Depth chart: Nathan, Soria, Rondon, Al Alburquerque, Tom Gorzelanny, Ian Krol, Lobstein.
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Prospects to watch
RF Steven Moya: Physically imposing at 6-6, 230 pounds, Moya, 23, made his major league debut in September after belting 35 home runs – and striking out 161 times – at Class AA Erie (Pa.). Yoenis Cespedes' acquisition eliminates the chance at a full-time role, and Moya must improve his plate approach. But he could be a factor this season. "This guy has as much power as anybody," GM Dave Dombrowski says. "Sure, he does strike out a little more, but he makes things happen with the bat. He has a chance to be a real fine player."
OF Derek Hill: Hill 19, almost immediately became the Tigers' best prospect after they drafted him 23rd overall last June. Hill may eventually remind Tigers fans of former center fielder Austin Jackson, but he's still several years away from making a major league impact. For now, his speed and defense will accelerate his climb through the minors; hopefully, his bat will follow along.
LHP Kevin Ziomek: One recent Detroit strategy: Draft advanced college pitchers, develop them quickly, and eventually trade them. Will Ziomek, who turns 23 next month, meet the same fate? Multiple trades have helped this 2013 second-rounder's rise up the club's depth chart – as did his 152 strikeouts in 123 innings of his first full pro season. A full season likely split between high Class A and AA will be more telling.
C James McCann: Is he the Tigers' catcher of the future? Or their No. 2 catcher of the future? McCann, 24, has a good shot to make the club out of spring training. Whether he represents a potential replacement for Alex Avila depends on how well he hits. McCann produced a career-best .343 on-base percentage last year at Class AAA Toledo. A sound plate approach and excellent defense may be enough to stick for good this year.
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