Organizational report: Dodgers turn to analytics in 2015
Sports Weekly takes an in-depth look at each major league organization during the offseason, from the major leagues to the farm system. We start with teams with the worst records and move up.
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New Los Angeles Dodgers general manager Farhan Zaidi acknowledges he's a numbers guy. That's how he built his résumé with the Oakland Athletics before landing his first general manager gig this offseason under recently arrived president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, formerly of the Tampa Bay Rays.
Both were used to doing more with less at their previous posts, employing advanced analytics to make up for what they lacked in financial resources to build a roster. Yet now that they're running the club with the biggest payroll in baseball, the men have made several moves that appear to be aimed at improving the team chemistry, that amorphous concept numbers can't measure.
The Dodgers let temperamental shortstop Hanley Ramirez walk away as a free agent, and they agreed to pay $30 million of Matt Kemp's salary to send the moody outfielder to the San Diego Padres. They also traded for shortstop Jimmy Rollins and second baseman Howie Kendrick, two veterans known as solid citizens. And they made two risky deals in signing Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson, good clubhouse guys and talented pitchers who come with lengthy injury histories.
What in the name of Brian Kenny is going on here?
The Dodgers say they were determined to improve their up-the-middle defense, which has been overhauled entirely with newly acquired Yasmani Grandal at catcher, Rollins and Kendrick at either side of second base and rookie Joc Pederson the expected starter in center field.
The club also wanted better production from its No. 4 and 5 starters, which was the reason for bringing in McCarthy and Anderson.
Finally, the new management sought to bolster its corps of setup relievers by acquiring Joel Peralta, Chris Hatcher and Juan Nicasio while letting go of former closers Brian Wilson and Chris Perez.
As for the clubhouse chemistry, thought to be a problem last season with several me-first personalities that included volatile outfielder Yasiel Puig:
"I believe in chemistry but also in the virtuous cycle of chemistry and winning, guys coming together and being willing to sacrifice for the team," Zaidi says. "Success breeds that."
The Dodgers had internal issues despite winning 94 games and their second National League West crown in a row in 2014. And they still have Puig, whose enormous talent and potential still outweigh the headaches he creates.
But they think they've assembled a better-functioning club by putting more emphasis on the entire roster rather than merely collecting superstars.
"The pieces fit together better as a baseball team," manager Don Mattingly told reporters during Los Angeles' player-development camp in January.
Some of the changes have come at the expense of offensive explosiveness. Kemp and Ramirez combined for 38 of the Dodgers' 134 home runs last season and drove in 160 of their 718 runs.
The club is banking on better fielding and offensive balance to cover those losses.
"The power is less concentrated, but when you add it up from one to eight it's comparable," Zaidi says. "We may get 25 home runs from the catcher position. Jimmy Rollins is still capable of hitting home runs. Kendrick's probably going to hit more than Dee (Gordon)."
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POSITION-BY-POSITION (*prospect)
Catcher: Incumbent catcher A.J. Ellis is regarded as a positive clubhouse presence, and he has a great rapport with staff ace Clayton Kershaw. However, Ellis' offensive output dipped markedly last season, when he batted .191 with a .577 on-base-plus-slugging percentage (OPS). The Dodgers traded for younger and more productive Grandal, who bounced back from a performance-enhancing-drug-related suspension in 2013 to deliver 15 home runs and a .728 OPS in 128 games with the Padres. Their roles haven't been defined, but it's likely Grandal's power potential will win out and he will draw most of the starts while Ellis continues catching Kershaw.
Depth chart: Grandal, Ellis, *Austin Barnes.
First base: A big second half (.314 average, .929 OPS) thrust Adrian Gonzalez into the MVP race, where he finished seventh. Gonzalez's 116 RBI were the highest total in the majors, and he led the club with 27 homers. Gonzalez also won his fourth Gold Glove. The Dodgers don't much bother seeking backups for Gonzalez, who has played at least 156 games every season since establishing himself in 2006, although Scott Van Slyke could fill in.
Depth chart: Gonzalez, Van Slyke, Justin Turner.
Second base: In the words of Los Angeles Angels general manager Jerry Dipoto, Kendrick is as consistent as the day is long. Kendrick was indeed a steady performer for nine seasons for the Angels. But with free agency looming, they traded him to the Dodgers for pitching prospect Andrew Heaney. Kendrick won't come close to equaling the 64 bases stolen by the player he's replacing (Gordon), but the career .292 hitter has considerably more pop and tied a career high with 75 RBI last season. Former Gold Glover Darwin Barney will back up.
Depth chart: Kendrick, Barney, Turner, *Alex Guerrero.
Third base: Free-swinging Juan Uribe was an unlikely candidate to lead the Dodgers regulars in hitting, but there he was putting up a career-best .311 average last season. If only he'd walk a bit more. Uribe remains one of the league's elite defensive third basemen — he was a finalist for the Gold Glove — and a popular teammate. He'll be 35 in March, though, and he's entering the final year of his contract, so he might need to prove the Dodgers don't need to seek a younger replacement.
Depth chart: Uribe, Turner, Barney.
Shortstop: The Dodgers were determined to find a better-fielding shortstop than Ramirez, whose declining range and propensity for getting hurt at times overshadowed his offensive prowess. Even at 36, Rollins represents an upgrade defensively and in the clubhouse, where his leadership is a welcome addition to a team that has endured chemistry problems. Rollins is no longer an elite offensive force — the last time he batted at least .275 or had an OPS of at least .750 was in 2008 — and he might find it much harder to reach the fences at Dodger Stadium than at Citizens Bank Park. Prospect Corey Seager is a middle infielder with power who actually has a higher ceiling than Pederson does, but he's further from the majors.
Depth chart: Rollins, Turner, Barney.
Left field: Carl Crawford emerged as the winner of the competition for the left-field spot last season, rendering Andre Ethier a fourth outfielder, and that figures to be the case again this year. Crawford, 33, is still a capable base stealer — he was second on the team with 23 — and even outslugged Ethier. Crawford is no longer the offensive catalyst he was during his days with the Rays, but he and Rollins can still serve as disruptive forces atop the lineup.
Depth chart: Crawford, Ethier, Van Slyke, Chris Heisey.
Center field: Pederson will go into the season as the odds-on favorite to earn the starting job in center field, but the Dodgers are hedging their bets by retaining Ethier — owed $56 million over the next three years — and bringing in right-handed-hitting Heisey as options. Pederson, 22, was the MVP of the Class AAA Pacific Coast League after posting a 33-homer, 30-steal season with a 1.017 OPS. The Dodgers will gauge in the spring whether he's ready to start in the majors.
Depth chart: Pederson, Heisey, Ethier, Puig.
Right field: Puig has become such a polarizing figure in two years in the majors, it's easy to forget he's only 24. The multitalented Cuban showed hints of discipline and harnessing his game last season, but he's still far from a finished product at the plate, on the bases or in the field. Even while leading the club with an .863 OPS, Puig was maddeningly inconsistent. He had a total of two home runs in June, July and August. His ability is unparalleled, though, so the Dodgers will continue exercising patience.
Depth chart: Puig, Ethier, Van Slyke.
Starting pitchers: The top three of Kershaw, Zack Greinke and Hyun-Jin Ryu combined to go 52-18 last season and can make a case for being superior to any starting trio in the majors. Kershaw, the NL MVP and Cy Young Award winner, has been on an unprecedented run, leading the league in ERA for four years in a row. His brilliance makes it easy to overlook that Greinke had another outstanding season and that Ryu has established himself as a top-notch lefty despite being limited by injuries. The back end of the rotation doesn't inspire as much confidence. The Dodgers traded veteran innings-eater Dan Haren and signed McCarthy and Anderson, both of whom have extensive injury histories. McCarthy rediscovered his cutter and thrived with the New York Yankees after being traded by the Arizona Diamondbacks, but he had a 5.01 ERA in 18 starts with Arizona. Anderson, a major talent who can't ever seem to stay healthy, has made a total of 19 starts in the last three seasons. Josh Beckett, Paul Maholm and Roberto Hernandez are no longer around, so the Dodgers might have to dip into their farm system for starter depth, although Nicasio is an option as well.
Depth chart: LHP Kershaw, RHP Greinke, LHP Ryu, RHP McCarthy, LHP Anderson, RHP Nicasio, *RHP Joe Wieland, *LHP Chris Reed, *RHP Zach Lee.
Bullpen: Unhappy with the setup work of Wilson and Perez — former closers with ERAs above 4.25 last season — the Dodgers added Peralta, Hatcher and Nicasio to their bullpen in hopes of preserving leads for overpowering closer Kenley Jansen. However, the Dodgers will be without Jansen 8-10 weeks after undergoning surgery to remove a growth from a bone in his left foot. They join a relief corps that includes Brandon League, who overcame a brutal start to become a dependable late-inning contributor, and lefty specialists J.P. Howell and Paco Rodriguez, who spent most of the season in the minors. Jansen saved 44 games and struck out nearly 14 batters per nine innings, so leads are generally safe in his hands.
Depth chart: RHP Jansen, RHP League, RHP Peralta, RHP Hatcher, LHP Howell, LHP Rodriguez, RHP Nicasio, RHP Carlos Frias.
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PROSPECTS TO WATCH
OF Joc Pederson: The Dodgers were willing to eat $30 million of Matt Kemp's contract in a trade with the San Diego Padres in part to open a spot for Pederson. Pederson, 22, who put up a 1.017 on-base-plus-slugging percentage (OPS) in the minors last season, has shown enough plate discipline to register triple-digit walks in each of the last two years. But his propensity to strike out might be exploited by more advanced pitchers.
LHP Julio Urias: He combines uncommon poise with a fastball, curve and changeup that already is above average in the majors. Asked about adjusting to the USA, Mexico's Urias, 18, told Paste BN Sports, "It's been a bit hard, mostly because of the language, but it's the same baseball everywhere. The tough part with my age is not being able to do anything here, so I just play baseball."
SS Corey Seager: Seager, who turns 21 in April, tore up the high Class A California League (1.044 on-base-plus-slugging percentage) before moving up to ClassAA, where he had a .915 OPS. Seager, younger brother of Seattle Mariners third baseman Kyle Seager, is regarded as a heady player with excellent makeup. The main question is whether, at 6-4 and 215 pounds, he'll outgrow shortstop and wind up at third base. "One big advice my brother gave me was to make every league your big league so you're never really looking forward, you're never just trying to get out of the league," Seager told Paste BN Sports.
RHP Grant Holmes: The 22nd overall pick in 2014, Holmes showed overpowering stuff — his fastball can touch 98 mph — by striking out 58 batters in 48 1/3 innings in the low minors after signing for a $2.5 million bonus. He also has a swing-and-miss slurve for his main secondary pitch, and he's developing a changeup. Holmes, 19 in March, figures to start the season at low Class A, but if he can polish the changeup, he might move up quickly.