AL Championship Series: Royals vs. Blue Jays
A capsule look at the American League Championship Series between the Toronto Blue Jays and Kansas City Royals:
Time/TV/Probable Pitchers
Game 1: Blue Jays (Marco Estrada, 13-8, 3.13 ERA) at Royals (Edinson Volquez, 13-9, 3.55 ERA), Friday, 8:07 p.m. ET on Fox
Game 2: Blue Jays (David Price, 18-5, 2.45 ERA) at Royals (Yordano Ventura, 13-8, 4.08), Saturday, 4:07 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1
Game 3: Royals (Johnny Cueto, 11-13, 3.44) at Blue Jays (Marcus Stroman, 4-0, 1.67), Monday, 8:07 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1
Game 4: Royals (TBD) at Blue Jays (R.A. Dickey, 11-11, 3.91), Tuesday, TBD
Game 5*: Royals (Volquez) at Blue Jays (Price or Estrada), Wednesday, TBD
Game 6*: Blue Jays (Estrada) at Royals (Ventura), Oct. 23, TBD
Game 7*: Blue Jays (Stroman) at Royals (Cueto), Oct. 24, TBD
(* if necessary)
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The case for the Royals: The defending AL pennant winners are similarly constructed as last year: the Royals have, by far, the AL’s best bullpen; they have a good-enough starting staff — and one that can be a plus when enigmatic Cueto and Ventura are at their best; and they have a rally-oriented offense that ranked top-four in the league in hits, doubles, triples and stolen bases but second-to-last in home runs. By at least one metric, they had the AL’s best defense by notching the most defensive runs saved by a wide margin, with 51, compared to Toronto’s 20, which ranked third.
The biggest difference from last year is that the lineup overall, though similarly styled, is clearly improved. Kendrys Morales (22 HRs, .847 OPS) provides a new source of power; Ben Zobrist is a major upgrade over Omar Infante; and Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and Lorenzo Cain all had career-best seasons, with the first two taking major strides toward fulfilling the lofty prospect projections placed on them.
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The case for the Blue Jays: Toronto had an historic second half—its 48-23 record after the All-Star Game was the best in the majors this season but, as the Elias Sports Bureau notes, they are the first club in major league history to sit eight games back of first at the break to win the division by at least six games. The Jays’ run differential was +221, 99 runs better than anyone else and only the third +200 club of the last decade. Once this team clicked, it became great.
The Jays’ calling card is their offense, which led the league in nine major categories, including runs (891) and homers (232). Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion hit 41, 40 and 39 homers, respectively—the first 120-homer trio since the 2006 White Sox and only the second three-player group to each have 20 homers in the season’s second half, joining the 2004 Cubs. Such prodigious power — which also extends to Troy Tulowitzki, Chris Colabello and others — means the Jays are never too far behind to come back.
When Price and Stroman are at their best (more below), Toronto has a terrific 1-2 top of the rotation, and the bullpen is good, although currently lacking a left-hander. Playing behind the pitching staff is yet another fielding unit that can claim it’s the best: the Jays have the majors’ best park-adjusted defensive efficiency, according to Baseball Prospectus. (K.C. ranked 10th.) Their up-the-middle players — catcher Russell Martin, shortstop Tulowitzki, second baseman Ryan Goins and center fielder Kevin Pillar — are all outstanding.
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The X factor: Past and potentially present Cy Young winners are generally known commodities rather than X factors, but David Price’s poor ALDS — eight runs in 11 innings — and poor postseason track record make one wonder how effective he’ll be in the ALCS. The Jays even opted for young Stroman over Price for a Game 5 start. Price faced the Royals twice this season while with the Tigers. In back-to-back starts in May, he threw a one-run complete game the first time and then allowed four runs in 6 1/3 innings in a game Detroit won.
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First things first: Keep an eye on first-inning scoring. The Royals allowed only 68 runs in the first inning, which was the second fewest in baseball, whereas the Blue Jays yielded 116, tied for second-most. Both clubs were successful scoring early: Toronto’s 108 first-frame runs ranked fourth, and Kansas City’s 106 were fifth.
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Close and late: Kansas City’s celebrated bullpen triumvirate pitched 29% of their playoff innings last October, allowing five earned runs in 40 1/3 innings for a 1.12 ERA. Greg Holland is injured but has been capably replaced by Ryan Madson with Wade Davis and Kelvin Herrera each pitching an inning later. Those three anchored a relief corps with a 2.69 ERA that was three-quarters of a run better than fifth-place Toronto. They allowed a league-low .214 average and the second-lowest rate of inherited runners scoring, at 27%. The Royals were 73-6 (.924) when leading after six innings, compared to Toronto’s 76-14 (.844).
Although the Jays only acquired veterans Mark Lowe and LaTroy Hawkins for the final third of the season, their bullpen is in worse straits now with the loss of Brett Cecil and the unknown status of Aaron Loup. They don’t presently have a lefty in their bullpen to counter KC’s Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and Alex Gordon, but Roberto Osuna and Aaron Sanchez are a young, but formidable, back-end pair.
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In the end: Look for Price to pitch more like his regular season version than his postseason edition, making the difference in oppositely constructed but equally talented ball clubs.
BLUE JAYS IN 6
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