The case for Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, Miguel Sano for AL Rookie of the Year

Baseball’s most imperfect season begins Monday night, when its postseason awards commence by trying to answer an impossible question.

Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, or Miguel Sano?

Those are the finalists for the American League’s Rookie of the Year award, an honor that in this century has gone to players who soon declined (Wil Myers, Jeremy Hellickson) or, worse yet, were quickly forgotten (Angel Berroa).

This year?

It’s hardly a stretch to suggest this three-man field contains at least one future MVP. And while it’s always hyperbolic – and certainly premature – to pin Cooperstown expectations on anyone yet to complete a full season, it’s also easy to imagine any of these three forcing their way into that conversation should they remain relatively healthy.

First, however, is the matter of tonight’s trophy, and the smart money is on Correa, the 21-year-old Houston Astros shortstop, taking it home.

Correa was a unanimous choice in Paste BN Sports’ postseason power rankings, and while our panel of 10 is far from infallible, it did predict five of the six major awards in 2014, erring only on Corey Kluber’s upset of Felix Hernandez in the AL Cy Young race.

And Correa certainly checks all the boxes for a Rookie of the Year. Promoted on June 8, Correa hit 22 home runs in 99 games, drove in 68 runs, got on base at a .345 clip and produced an OPS-plus of 132.

He also fits the traditional awards narrative of galvanizing a playoff contender and handling the most important position on the field deftly – spectacularly, at times – in the midst of a postseason run.

At 6-4 and 210 pounds, the comparisons to a young Alex Rodriguez are legitimate. Correa also embraces the ambassadorial responsibilities that come with his immense talent. If there is such a thing as a Next Derek Jeter – and if such a figure can hail from a market like Houston – Correa is it.

Yet, there’s a case to be made that he wasn’t at the head of his rookie class.

Lindor, in fact, may be the Jeter to Correa’s A-Rod when it comes to transcendent shortstops coming along at about the same time. Lindor was born in November 1993 in Puerto Rico, 10 months before Correa. He made his major league debut six days after Correa, and showed all the polish you’d imagine for a player many thought the Cleveland Indians should have promoted sooner.

Fantastic afield, Lindor also was a revelation at the plate, with a .313/.353/.482 slash line, 12 home runs and 12 steals in 14 attempts.

And advanced metrics provide a compelling argument in Lindor’s favor.

His Wins Above Replacement of 4.6 – as computed by FanGraphs - leads all major league rookies, despite his late promotion, and easily trumps Correa’s 3.3 WAR. While his OPS-plus of 122 falls shy of Correa, his 10 Defensive Runs Saved suggest an elite defender; Correa rated 0 in that metric.

While Correa and Lindor may divide analysts into two camps over shortstop superiority, consider this: Sano, too, has a legitimate stake in this rookie argument.

His WAR of 2.0 rates poorly compared to Correa and Lindor. And since Sano’s something of a man without a position – First base? Third base? Outfield? DH? – his value is automatically diminished compared to the shortstops.

But it’s also foolhardy to dismiss the case of a player who led all major league rookies in on-base and slugging percentage – and with staggering .385 and .530 marks, no less.

Sano’s bid is probably doomed by his late promotion; the Twins summoned him to the majors July 2, cooling the counting stats like home runs (18) and RBI (52) so crucial to the case of a slugger not known for his defense.

And typically, it’d be unfair to assume Sano would have maintained his prodigious on-base and slugging marks over a sample much larger than his 335 plate appearances. Yet this is a player with plate discipline that belies his 22 years. Retiring outfielder Torii Hunter had only played with Sano a few weeks when he dropped a Miguel Cabrera comparison on the rookie. Sure, Hunter qualified it by saying it was early in Sano’s career.

But Sano’s walk rate of 15.8% was double the major league average of 7.7. Perhaps he won’t be a hitting savant on Cabrera’s level. But it’s also clear this is a very gifted hitter, in both approach and skill level.

All that may get him a third-place finish when results are released on MLB Network Monday night after 6 p.m. ET. You have to go back almost a decade to find a rookie vote with such qualified candidates. In 2007, Ryan Braun edged Troy Tulowitzki, 128-126, his power numbers trumping Tulo’s advanced metrics that in this era might have earned him the honor. Eight years later, Braun and Tulowitzki are dead even in career WAR, at 39; the third place finisher that year was outfielder Hunter Pence, who has amassed 28 WAR and won a couple of World Series.

Not too bad. And perhaps not even equal to tonight’s top three, which will produce one worthy winner and two players with strong chances to equal – or exceed – his career accomplishments.

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