MLB teams playing follow-the-leader by focusing on contact
The Kansas City Royals’ mantra seemed so simple as they methodically pounded their opponents into submission throughout the 2015 postseason with an unrelenting offensive attack.
Keep the line moving.
The Royals were so good at making contact that they foiled some of the game’s hardest-throwing pitchers.
At a time in the game’s history when strikeouts are at an all-time high, the Royals are a throwback to the deadball era. Or at least one that existed before the designated hitter.
“Aggressive but patient,” outfielder Alex Gordon says. “We’re looking for our pitch. If it’s not there, we’re not going to get it. If it is there, we’re swinging.”
Last season, the Royals rarely swung and missed. They led the majors in contact percentage and struck out in just 15.9% of their plate appearances. (No other team was below 18%.)
Despite ranking in the bottom quarter of the majors in home runs, the Royals strung together enough hits to finish seventh in scoring at 4.47 runs per game.
Whenever a team finds a way to be successful, others are bound to take notice.
“Everybody’s trying to put the ball in play,” Detroit Tigers outfielder Justin Upton says.
“The Royals were able to execute that last year, which got them to the World Series and ultimately winning the World Series, but as many times as you can put the ball in play — and make the defense make a play — it’s definitely going to give you a better chance to score runs.”
National attention
It’s no secret that pitchers gradually have been gaining the upper hand on hitters for at least the last decade.
Until last year when scoring rose slightly, the average number of runs per game in the major leagues had declined every season since 2006.
Meanwhile, strikeouts have continued to mount at a historic rate, with pitchers setting a record in each of the last eight consecutive seasons.
In a lower-offense environment, each run, each base and each out is worth more.
“The last couple years, offensive efficiency is en vogue again where you have to produce runs and manufacture runs not via the long ball so much,” Washington Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo says.
The Royals’ approach makes perfect sense — if you can find the players to execute it.
During the offseason, Rizzo acquired two of the best hitters in baseball last season at making contact.
He signed Daniel Murphy, who ranked second in the majors in contact rate at 92%, as a free agent to fill a vacancy at second base. He also worked a trade to acquire outfielder Ben Revere, who ranked fourth with a 90.1% contact rate.
“That’s the object of the game of baseball, try to put the ball in play,” Revere says. “It’s already tough — you’ve got pitchers who throw 100 miles per hour with a great breaking ball — the main thing is to try and put the ball in play.”
When it comes to making contact in the strike zone, the two new Nationals ranked first and second — Murphy at 97.5% and Revere at 96.7%.
A Nationals team that struck out the third-most times in baseball in 2015 should look considerably different this season under new manager Dusty Baker.
“That’s all baseball’s supposed to be. You can call it a trend because it’s a modern trend, but that’s baseball I know,” Baker says.
“If we can cut down (on strikeouts) 10-15-20%, that’s 20% more toward something happening. Know what I mean?”
Investing in contact
While the Nationals made a statement this offseason by acquiring hitters who had elite contact rates, other teams have been working to improve the skills of the players on their existing rosters.
A staple of the Houston Astros’ daily routine this spring are drills designed to improve their hitters’ ability to make contact.
“We work on the machines, make sure they throw hard, and we try to swing only at the good pitches,” says shortstop Carlos Correa, last season’s American League rookie of the year. “When you work that machine at 50 feet throwing hard, then you go to the game — 60 feet — that’s the drill I love.
“When the game comes, everything slows down.”
In 2013 and 2014 with the Atlanta Braves, Evan Gattis was one of the biggest free swingers in the majors (along with Pablo Sandoval and Adam Jones), swinging at more than 43% of the pitches he saw out of the strike zone.
Last season, after being traded to the Astros, Gattis began to channel his aggressiveness a little better, swinging at 37.5% of those pitches. Now, he’s doing a better job of not chasing bad pitches.
“I’ve gotten lucky on a few, hitting some balls hard on pitches out of the zone — way out of the zone,” he says. “But how many times did I swing through that to get to that?”
He says the drills have helped him realize he doesn’t need to help the pitchers get him out.
“We’ve got strings up in the zone (in the batting cage),” he says. “People from really close throw pitches. It’s kind of a yes/no thing. Just paying attention to it.”
Last season, the Astros were the best team in the majors at swinging at balls in the strike zone — something Fangraphs calls Z-Swing percentage — at 70.2%.
“The technology is getting better and people are getting smarter about how to play the game,” Gattis says, “so I’m trying to get on board.”
Royals get results
The Royals’ success might be leading other teams to re-examine their free-swinging ways. They’ve been among the top three in contact percentage as a team every year since 2010.
But there’s another component to their successful formula.
It’s not just about swinging and making contact. It’s about getting a good pitch to hit … and doing something with it.
The Royals also led the majors last season in what Fangraphs calls Z-Contact percentage — making contact with pitches in the strike zone.
Perhaps the best example of that last season was center fielder Lorenzo Cain.
Posting career highs in practically every offensive category, the 29-year-old was one of the driving forces in the Royals’ march to a World Series title.
How did Cain go from someone who hit .301 with five home runs, 53 RBI and 55 runs scored in 2014 to .307 with 16 homers, 72 RBI and 101 runs scored?
He made a conscious decision to alter his approach at the plate.
“I just went into last year trying to drive the ball a little more,” Cain says. “Just focus on driving the ball, trying to do damage each and every at-bat. Try not to take any at-bat for granted.”
For Cain, the key was learning not to swing at pitches he couldn’t hit hard.
“It’s really tough to go out there and lay off some of those pitches,” he says. “It’s only getting tougher each year. Everybody’s throwing harder. I feel like everybody’s throwing 95-plus (mph).”
The numbers bear him out. Cain did a better job than ever of connecting with pitches in the strike zone — 91.2%. As a result, he cut his strikeout rate (21.5% to 16.2%) and even increased his walk rate (4.8% to 6.1%).
Third baseman Mike Moustakas also had a breakout in 2015, setting career highs in batting average (.284), home runs (22), runs scored (73) and RBI (82).
Part of his success was because of his ability to foil the defensive shifts opponents deployed against him. However, he also had a career-low strikeout rate (12.4%), combined with a near-elite 91.4% contact rate on balls in the zone.
Breakouts and potential breakouts
In addition to Cain, Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder A.J. Pollock was another of last season’s breakout stars.
He followed a similar path in cutting his strikeout rate while at the same time increasing his walk rate.
His percentage of swings on balls in the strike zone — Z-Swing percentage — also increased from 2014, going from 59.5% to 64%. (And Pollock was one of the best in the majors at making contact with pitches in the zone — Z-Contact — at 94.6%.)
Among the top 15 in Z-Swing percentage last season, Ryan Howard and Yadier Molina had the lowest fantasy value at $9. Many of them earned well into double digits.
The lesson: Swing at good pitches, and the results will follow.
“Some people think I don’t swing at strikes, but that’s actually pretty cool,” says Orioles outfielder Jones, a noted skeptic of advanced metrics who ranked third in Z-Swing percentage. “First off, it says that I’m ready to hit a strike.”
“I don’t even know that stat, to be honest with you,” the Tigers’ J.D. Martinez says. “That’s how I believe. You go up there ready to hit until your eyes say no.”
Of course, using last year’s stats to offer reasons why players had great seasons is in many ways a self-fulfilling prophesy. They succeeded because they were successful.
We’d like to be able to use the numbers to help predict who could be breakout performers this year.
To be overly simplistic, we want players who can recognize good pitches (Z-Swing). We also want players who can make contact with the good pitches they see (Z-Contact).
Boston Red Sox outfielder Mookie Betts is an obvious example. Of the 141 qualified hitters last season, Betts was one of four who were in the top 20% of both categories. The others: Michael Brantley, Angel Pagan and Jason Heyward.
Although Betts was great at making contact with balls in the strike zone (93.1% Z-Contact), he swung at only 55.7% of those pitches (Z-Swing).
The major league averages last season:
Z-Swing rate: 66.9% (elite 73+)
Z-Contact rate: 86.7% (elite 91.7+)
A more aggressive approach — such as one employed by teammate David Ortiz (71.9% Z-Swing) — could make Betts even more dangerous.
“I think I’ll be better. I’ve just got to be smart about it. I’ve got to know what I’m doing,” Betts says. “Everybody’s smart here. They know ways to get ahead of me. On the reverse, I’m trying to figure out a way to get ahead of them. … You just have to know which (adjustments) to make and which ones to not make.”
Outfielder Gerardo Parra of the Colorado Rockies was one of the best at attacking balls in the strike zone (73.1% Z-Swing) and just below the elite level at making contact on them (91.1% Z-Contact).
Where he falls short is in his propensity to swing at balls outside the strike zone (40%). A slight improvement in that area, combined with a regular starting job playing home games at Coors Field, could make Parra a potential breakout.
Middle infielders Kolten Wong (73.3%) and Francisco Lindor (73.7%) are two others who fall into the same category.
While it’s dangerous to read too much into any individual set of numbers, research has shown that contact rates are among the fastest of all hitting stats to stabilize. So if hitters make changes in their approaches, it shouldn’t take very long to see if the changes are working.
No matter how much the balance of power between hitters and pitchers changes, the one-on-one battle between them is still the center of attention.
“The job of the pitcher is to get you off balance and make you swing at bad pitches,” Upton says. “It’s going to happen. You just try to minimize it as much as you can.”
Being more aggressive on pitches in the strike zone is one way hitters are trying to get their revenge.
Gardner reported from Arizona and Florida.