Bold predictions: Defending World Series champion Royals finish fourth in AL Central

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As the 2016 Major League Baseball season begins, Paste BN Sports' baseball staff lays out its bold predictions for the six months ahead:

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The Kansas City Royals are the odds-on favorite to win their second consecutive American League Central title.

And why not?

They are the defending World Series champions and have won consecutive AL pennants.

But, if not careful, the Royals could finish fourth in the AL Central behind the Detroit Tigers, Cleveland Indians and Chicago White Sox.

Here’s why:

• There is better competition in the division. The Tigers, Indians and White Sox each made offseason moves to contend. The Tigers added left fielder Justin Upton and starting pitcher Jordan Zimmermann and rebuilt their bullpen. The Indians retained their impeccable rotation, signed Mike Napoli and will have Michael Brantley healthy. The White Sox greatly improved their offense with the additions of second baseman Brett Lawrie and All-Star third baseman Todd Frazier.
• The Royals have a suspect rotation. Right-hander Johnny Cueto was lost to free agency. Right-hander Edinson Volquez, the opening-day starter, had a bout with dead arm during the spring but says his velocity is back. The Royals took a gamble signing right-hander Ian Kennedy and lefty Mike Minor in the offseason. Kennedy secured a five-year, $70million deal despite mediocre numbers in 2015 (4.28 ERA and 31 home runs allowed in 1681/3 innings) and Minor, who missed the 2015 season because of shoulder surgery, will start the season on the disabled list. Dillon Gee, a right-hander, adds depth but little else.
• A dilemma in right field. Jarrod Dyson, the projected starter, will miss significant time with a strained muscle in his side. The job has turned into a race between Paulo Orlando and Reymond Fuentes, a former first-round pick of the Boston Red Sox, after the Royals lost veteran Alex Rios to free agency.
• The core of the team is intact, but several players are on the down sides of their career and some have peaked. Left fielder Alex Gordon, the face of the organization, signed the richest contract (four years, $72 million) in franchise history, but at 32 he’s beyond his prime years. All-Stars Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer, both two years from free agency, might have peaked offensively.
• Not the same bullpen. The Royals have had the majors’ most dominant bullpen for the past few years with the formidable trio of Wade Davis, Kelvin Herrera and Greg Holland. But after the 2015 season, they entered the offseason with just three full-time relievers — Davis, Herrera and Luke Hochevar. Holland and reclamation project Ryan Madson became free agents. Herrera’s ERA nearly doubled in 2015. Joakim Soria was a late addition and won’t get a chance to close.

The small-market Royals have proved every skeptic wrong the past two seasons. But they are no longer the underdogs, and the division got a whole lot better.