The St. Louis Cardinals are creeping into the playoffs once again
The benches cleared in Los Angeles, the San Francisco Giants bullpen imploded again and a night of magnificent baseball theater unfolded from start to finish Monday night at Dodger Stadium.
All that drama merely served to detract from the real issue hovering over the National League playoff race: The St. Louis Cardinals are back, and they’re probably not going away.
As Giants manager Bruce Bochy tried to defend the indefensible and explain the unexplainable –his bullpen’s nightly failings and his yanking of ace Madison Bumgarner after seven innings – the Cardinals quietly pulled into a tie with the Giants for the second wild card spot, with both clubs just a game behind the New York Mets for the top wild card spot.
And yes, it’s not too soon to ponder what happens if all three teams end up tied atop the wild card heap.
But everything’s been coming up Cardinals for the past four days, and conditions are ripe for them to stretch their playoff streak to six straight seasons and maybe even host the one-game wild card tilt at Busch Stadium.
Consider Monday.
It’s clear the Giants’ second half free fall won’t be easily halted. Not if they can’t get outs after the seventh inning, or outslug the many deficiencies of their bullpen.
Meanwhile, the Mets’ fabled young quartet of pitchers has been whittled down to one after injuries to Steven Matz, Jacob deGrom and Matt Harvey. And that one – Noah Syndergaard – suffered a rare hiccup in giving up five earned runs in 3 2/3 innings of a dispiriting loss to the Atlanta Braves.
Down the stretch, can Syndergaard pull along a starting quintet that now consists of Bartolo Colon, Robert Gsellman, Seth Lugo and Gabriel Ynoa? Will Matz be effective if he can return from a shoulder injury, perhaps by Friday night?
Meanwhile, the Cardinals won for the sixth time in Carlos Martinez’s last seven starts, as he sauntered into Coors Field and notched his 15th win of the season. Rookie Alex Reyes has been sensational in three starts, yielding a 1.03 earned-run average and striking out 40 in 35 innings.
They can’t expect such dominance on nights Adam Wainwright, Mike Leake and Luke Weaver take the ball, but as a whole, it’s not a bad bunch to take deep into September.
Particularly given the Cardinals’ final ally – the schedule. They play just three more games against a club with a winning record and that team – the Chicago Cubs – might finally be easing off the gas pedal as they near 100 wins this weekend.
Other than that? Two more against the Rockies, four against the Cincinnati Reds and three against the ace-less Pittsburgh Pirates to finish.
The Giants have played so poorly, they’ve pretty much given away the division and might catch the Dodgers resting the final weekend of the season. Their fate probably rests on how they handle four games with the San Diego Padres, who are 63-87 yet have won six in a row against the Giants.
Either way, it all bodes well for the Cardinals, who now stand a 59% chance of claiming a wild card, according to Fangraphs. The Mets are at 83%, the Giants at 55%.
Percentages aside, a sixth consecutive playoff berth for St. Louis feels inevitable.
Playoff Primer
Days left in season: 13
Monday's big mover: Toronto. The Blue Jays got just enough offense - a 41st home run from Edwin Encarnacion - and held off the Seattle Mariners 3-2 for a crucial bit of breathing room. They pushed the surging Mariners three games back in the wild card race and have a 2 1/2 game edge on Detroit. And now they're tied with Baltimore for the top wild card slot.
Monday's big loser: San Francisco. Division hopes - almost done. Wild card hopes - seriously jeopardized. At 22-38 in the second half, not much hope things can get better.
Oh oh, it's magic: The Texas Rangers walked off the Angels and their magic number to win the AL West is three. The Mets' loss shaved the Washington Nationals' NL East number to five.
Tonight's can't-miss game: Boston at Baltimore, 7:05 ET, MLB Network. The Red Sox could conceivably go five games up on Baltimore and Toronto with 11 to play - or one or both clubs can pull within three games. The Orioles have their newfound ace, Kevin Gausman, going against the lefty they dealt away in the 2014 stretch drive - Eduardo Rodriguez.