How the Dodgers can beat the odds and defeat Cubs
CHICAGO – An air of inevitability has descended upon the National League Championship Series, some of it based on actual facts and the rest perhaps prompted by wishful thinking from those who would like to see the Chicago Cubs reach the World Series at some point in this century.
The Cubs did indeed pick up momentum with their two convincing victories over the Los Angeles Dodgers on Wednesday and Thursday, as the league’s second-most potent offense awoke from a protracted torpor and banged out 13 hits in back-to-back games, piling up 18 runs.
Now, Chicago gets up to two chances at home to clinch its first trip to the World Series since 1945.
Lest anyone forget, though, the last time the Cubs faced the two starters the Dodgers have lined up for this weekend, they came away with a grand total of zero runs.
Left-handers Clayton Kershaw and Rich Hill, both pitching on full rest, represent the Dodgers’ best chance to overcome their 3-2 series deficit and end a championship drought that, while not nearly as epic as Chicago’s, is threatening to complete its 28th year.
Here’s what the Dodgers need to do to beat the odds – the Game 5 winner of a best-of-seven series that’s tied 2-2 has gone on to win 70% of the time – and squash the Cubs’ pennant aspirations:
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Get longer starts: Only Kershaw (seven) and Hill (six) have completed as many as six innings in any game, and it’s no coincidence those were the ones L.A. won. While the Cleveland Indians were able to thrive in the ALCS by relying largely on their bullpen, L.A. doesn’t have the formidable Andrew Miller.
Instead, it has turned time and again to Joe Blanton, who has been scorched for seven runs and two losses in three innings. Bullpen compadre Pedro Baez has coughed up six runs – four unearned, with his own error a major contributor – in 3 1/3 innings.
Lengthy outings by Kershaw and Hill would reduce exposure to such a troubled, worn-down bullpen, which has allowed the Cubs to hit .313 and drive in 17 runs. Against the starters, they’re hitting .169 with seven RBI.
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Make the plays you should: Before yielding a two-run homer to Addison Russell in Game 4, rookie Julio Urias was victimized by soft hits and two errors by his teammates that contributed to his exit in the fourth inning.
L.A. made four errors in that 10-2 loss, which devolved into a blowout in a five-run sixth that included two miscues.
In the pivotal Game 5, the Cubs again blew open the game with a five-run outburst, this time in the eighth, facilitated by their opponents. Baez opened the inning by dropping a toss to first on an Addison Russell grounder, and infielders Justin Turner, Adrian Gonzalez and Kike Hernandez extended the rally by failing to convert makeable plays.
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More Kenley Jansen: Of course, this hinges on the Dodgers putting themselves in game situations that call for the closer’s services, which have been employed for more than one inning three times this postseason.
Jansen has been virtually untouchable in his two appearances of the series, yielding one hit and retiring six of the 11 batters he has faced via strikeout. But by breaking open the last two games, the Cubs have neutralized him.
Jansen will be rested and ready for multiple innings, likely in both games if needed, but the Dodgers have to make his presence worthwhile.
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Keep Gonzalez and replay review apart: Bad things happen when the Dodgers first baseman gets involved in plays that get reviewed.
In the second inning of Game 4, he appeared to give L.A. the lead by slipping his hand on the plate while trying to score from second on a single. The replay-review crew declined to overturn home-plate umpire Angel Hernandez’s call, keeping the game scoreless.
With the Cubs holding on to a 3-1 lead in the seventh inning of Game 5, Gonzalez led off with a nice bunt in the direction of where the second baseman is usually stationed, except Javier Baez was in short right field because of the shift. He still rushed in and whipped a throw that nabbed Gonzalez by an eyelash. This time A-Gone was initially ruled safe, only for the call to be reversed on appeal.
When it comes to baserunning, it’s best to limit the footspeed-challenged Gonzalez to a home run trot, like the one he went on after producing the only run of Game 2, supplying Kershaw all the run support he needed.
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Put pressure on Chicago: The Cubs are the favored team, America’s darlings, the ones whose championship pursuit extends more than a century. Make them feel the weight of Chicago and those outsized shoulders. The Dodgers started off Game 5 trying to take advantage of Jon Lester’s problems throwing to the bases, but then abandoned that strategy and failed to force the action. Hernandez at one point danced off first base, but never took off.
If Los Angeles takes the series to a Game 7, the Cubs will have a hard time playing loose amid the enormous expectations. And considering the struggles of closer Aroldis Chapman (6.00 ERA in the series), they may be missing their late-inning security blanket. I could get dicey for Chicago, but the Dodgers need to force that decisive game for the real pressure to mount.