Who are the top remaining MLB free agents on the market?
In our yearly postseason forecast of where the leading free agents might land, a panel of six Paste BN Sports baseball writers and editors had some hits and misses. All but one predicted Yoenis Cespedes would return to the New York Mets and Justin Turner to the Los Angeles Dodgers, but not a single one had Ian Desmond joining the Colorado Rockies or Rich Hill going back to L.A.
Now that much of the field has cleared, we’re examining the top remaining free agents, as Jorge L. Ortiz rubs his crystal ball and hazards educated guesses at their likely destinations. We’ll even throw in a possible trade scenario for good measure. Just don’t take these to your neighborhood bookie to fund last-minute holiday gifts.
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Edwin Encarnacion: Initially regarded as one of the market’s most appealing free agents and a candidate for a nine-figure contract, Encarnacion has seen his value diminish as possible suitors like the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays – his former employers – filled their DH vacancy with cheaper options.
Encarnacion, who turns 34 on Jan. 7, is not strictly limited to DH duties – he started 74 games at first base last season – but he’s not an accomplished defender.
Despite averaging nearly 39 homers and 110 RBI over the last five seasons, Encarnacion has seen his asking price apparently decrease enough that even the notoriously penurious Oakland Athletics are looking into making him an offer. That doesn’t seem like much of a fit. A more logical landing place would be the Cleveland Indians if Encarnacion is willing to take a shorter deal, or the Texas Rangers, who could use help at both first base and DH.
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Jose Bautista: Like his longtime teammate Encarnacion, Bautista is saddled with draft-pick compensation attached to his signing with a new team. That’s one of the reasons returning to Toronto – where he developed into a superstar – would make sense. Bautista, 36, is coming off a down offensive year and his defense in right field has deteriorated, but he still has pop and a keen eye at the plate (22 homers, 87 walks). He could split time between right field and DH, with newly acquired Kendrys Morales getting a fair number of starts at first base.
Other options are less clear. With his defensive shortcomings, Bautista may be limited to an AL team. The Seattle Mariners need help in the outfield corners and could plug him in at DH on days when Nelson Cruz plays the outfield. And Texas could bring him in strictly as a DH, but that would require a major diplomatic undertaking after the outfielder’s clashes with the Rangers the last two years.
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Mark Trumbo: The third and final player on our list tied to draft-pick compensation, Trumbo seems like such a perfect match with the Orioles that all six of our panelists predicted he would return to Baltimore, where he blasted a major league-leading 47 homers last season. An agreement hasn’t come to fruition yet, and Trumbo is said to be seeking a deal in the $75 million range.
With his ability to play first base – his original position – and the outfield, Trumbo could help the Rangers replenish some of the production they lost when Desmond and Mitch Moreland moved elsewhere. He’s more versatile and younger than Encarnacion, although his track record is not as consistent. The Rockies have been in pursuit as well, but considering how comfortable Trumbo felt hitting at cozy Camden Yards, Baltimore seems like the most likely choice.
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Ivan Nova: Nova, who turns 30 on Jan. 12, was dumped by the New York Yankees at the trade deadline, when he sported a 4.90 ERA, the best mark in his last three seasons as he battled injuries. Under the tutelage of Pittsburgh Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage, the Pitcher Whisperer, Nova posted a 3.06 ERA over 11 starts and struck out 52 compared with three walks.
Even though it’s a small sample, those figures will likely translate into a multiyear deal at an average of at least $10 million per. A return to the Pirates is not out of the question, but teams like the Houston Astros and Minnesota Twins could be possibilities as well.
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Michael Saunders: The lefty-swinging outfielder turned in an All-Star-worthy first half for the Blue Jays, but then batted just .178 after the break. Saunders, 30, also performed much better against lefties, with a .927 on-base plus slugging percentage that was 144 points higher than when facing right-handers, although that hasn’t been a career trend. The Orioles are trying to balance a righty-heavy lineup and have shown interest in Saunders, but that may hinge on whether they can entice Trumbo to return. Otherwise, the Indians could be an option.
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Luis Valbuena: The stocky infielder averaged 18 home runs and slugged at a .442 clip over the last three seasons, and he does a decent job fielding in the corners. Valbuena was limited to 90 games last season because of a hamstring injury but put up a career-best OPS of .816 and has drawn interest from the Yankees, who see his pull-happy swing as a perfect fit for their ballpark. He could also come in handy for a team like the Pirates, who may need depth at the infield corners in light of Jung Ho Kang’s legal issues.
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Greg Holland: The onetime dominant closer sat out last season while recovering from Tommy John surgery and held a well-attended showcase in early November. Holland has made it clear he would be willing to pitch in a setup capacity, so a number of teams could be interested in him for that role and as closer-in-waiting. Or a club like the Washington Nationals, suddenly lacking a ninth-inning pitcher, could take a chance on him.
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Jose Quintana: The rebuilding Chicago White Sox got a king’s ransom from the Boston Red Sox for Chris Sale and expect a similar package in exchange for Quintana, an All-Star lefty who doesn’t have the same credentials but comes with an even more team-friendly contract.
There’s no shortage of suitors for Quintana, 27, who has pitched at least 200 innings four years in a row, each of them with an ERA below 3.55. The Astros are widely regarded as the most logical trading partner, given their clear need for a top-of-the-rotation starter and their assortment of high-level prospects, such as outfielder Kyle Tucker and pitcher Joe Musgrove. The Yankees have also collected the kind of young talent that would interest the White Sox, but may not be willing to part with it.