'You need to go pay people': Nationals, Astros show power of almighty dollar in World Series
HOUSTON – If this World Series pitting the Washington Nationals and Houston Astros inspires others to follow their paths to glory, as so often happens in the copycat culture of sports, the route isn’t terribly complicated.
Oh, sure, the Astros have had books written to chronicle their drawdown, their buildup and the progressive methods that fueled their subsequent rise to glory, but this borderline dynasty they’ve crafted is largely the result of simple principles the Nationals also follow.
They want to win. They try to win. And they spare little expense to make it happen.
The Nationals and Astros aren’t quite atop Major League Baseball’s payroll list; they’ll land somewhere between fourth and sixth with luxury-tax payrolls nearly touching the $200 million mark. But in an industry where efficiency is too often mistaken for excellence, and process perhaps a bit too emphasized over outcome, the Nationals' and Astros’ willingness to pay for premium talent has kept both franchises consistently in the playoff hunt.
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The Astros’ gambit to build a dynasty – three consecutive 100-loss seasons eventually helped yield a bounty of talent – might have created a monster: Ten major league teams lost at least 90 games this year, many at some point electively choosing mediocrity.
But the part that often gets left out of the tanking manual is the next episode: Surrounding a core of high draft picks with premium reinforcements.
With three consecutive 100-win seasons, consider the Astros surrounded.
“That’s how rebuilding works,” says Astros ace Justin Verlander, who will start Game 2 of the World Series. “You can’t rebuild forever. I think that’s what a lot of teams are hiding behind, this rebuilding mantra. You rebuild to a certain point, and then you need to go pay people.
“Because you’ve got your young talent, the guys who will be the corner pieces for a six, seven-year window hopefully. But you need to supplement that. And you can’t just supplement that with minor league talent here and there. Sometimes, you need to go pay stars, to carry you over that hump.”
Pay, the Astros have.
Verlander was the bell cow, his stunning acquisition from Detroit in August 2017 pushing the Astros past the Yankees and on to their first World Series title two months later.
Since then, owner Jim Crane and GM Jeff Luhnow have only continued to make it rain.
Five months after their World Series title, the Astros granted reigning MVP Jose Altuve a seven-year, $163.5 million contract extension, keeping him in Houston through age 34, even though two years and just $13 million remained on Altuve’s original team-friendly deal.
This past March, they granted third baseman Alex Bregman a five-year, $100 million extension; he will finish no worse than second in MVP voting this season. They also guaranteed Verlander two more years and $66 million, locking him up through his age 38 season.
And in the biggest stunner, they traded for another former Cy Young Award winner in July, adding Zack Greinke in a deal that cost them both prospect capital and money – they’ll pay Greinke more than $25 million each of the next two seasons.
It’s a significant departure from the narrative that Houston was merely about efficiency experts and decision scientists and young stars like George Springer, Carlos Correa and Bregman who were drafted only because the team was terrible in years past.
That’s the cost of maintaining a standard of excellence that puts the Astros at the head of a group of near-perennial playoff clubs – or at least contenders - that includes the Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, Cubs, Nationals and Indians.
“Everyone says, ‘Ah, the Astros lost 100 games and they just drafted high,' ” says Bregman, 25 and now signed through 2024. “They also spent some money. And made some big acquisitions.
“Our ownership, our front office have done an incredible job of putting us in position to win for a long time. They showed that they want to win now. They want to win this year. They want to win next year. They want to win the year after. And they continually go out and acquire big pieces like we did with Verlander, like we did with Greinke, like we did with (outfielder Michael) Brantley. It’s important.”
The Nationals can relate.
They are here largely because of their starting pitching, a group that is guaranteed a staggering $549 million in salary.
Stephen Strasburg was drafted first overall in 2009 and retained for $175 million, before reaching free agency.
Max Scherzer, festering on the free agent market after the 2014 season, was snagged for $215 million; he’s won two Cy Youngs with the Nationals and may one day wear their cap in the Hall of Fame.
His old teammate, Anibal Sanchez, received $19 million over two years.
And in an odd sign of the times, lefty Patrick Corbin became a National when the once-profligate Yankees balked at granting him a sixth year.
He signed with the Nationals for $140 million. The Yankees opted to trade for lefty James Paxton (who earned $8.5 million in 2019) and re-signed J.A. Happ (two years, $34 million).
While the Nationals rumbled through the NL playoffs, winning six of eight games, Happ was mired in the Yankees’ bullpen and Paxton twice couldn’t get past the fourth inning in playoff starts. The Yankees have now failed to reach the World Series the past 10 seasons.
Corbin, meanwhile, struck out 238 this season and performed yeoman’s work in both starting and relief roles in the playoffs.
“You go out and get the best left-handed starting pitcher on the market, and he performs how a really good major league pitcher does,” says Nationals veteran Ryan Zimmerman. “That’s what you do.”
Corbin, at 30, is in his physical prime. But the Nationals and Astros are fiercely proud of their more advanced-age stars, the Nats – the oldest team in the majors – belovedly dubbing their mid-30s posse the Viejos.
Zimmerman and Scherzer are 35, NLCS MVP Howie Kendrick is 36. Four of the nine Astros regulars are at least 32, with Verlander at 36.
Their successes come after consecutive offseasons in which veteran players were frozen out at the expense of younger, cheaper but also unproven players.
“If someone’s been in the big leagues for 10 or so years and they’re healthy and still able, you can pretty much know what you’re going to get,” says Zimmerman, in the final guaranteed season of a $135 million contract. “That’s what you’re paying for – the consistency, the mental side of it, you know the person will be able to handle themselves through an entire season.
“Both of these teams are being rewarded for doing that. I’m not saying it’s the only way or right way to do it, but it definitely scores a couple points for the veteran guys.”
Verlander opted to re-up with the Astros rather than hit the market after this season, but he’s been a strident critic of baseball’s free agent decay – and the hyper-reliance on aging curves and metrics that often sell veteran players short.
“You can’t just say, ‘Well this guy produces X (Wins Above Replacement) and this young player who has never been in the big leagues is going to create the same WAR.' They should be equal and we’re going to save money by paying this guy and not this guy,’” he says. “I don’t think it works like that.
“I don’t think we win a championship in ’17 without Brian McCann and Carlos Beltran. I don’t think we’re here now without a bunch of the leaders we have on this ballclub. I don’t think the Nationals are here without a bunch of their veteran leadership. Now, you sprinkle in the young, exuberant, fun atmosphere and that’s all great and dandy. But I think you need all of it.”
Right now, the Astros have it all, but it may not last forever. Cy Young favorite and Game 1 starter Gerrit Cole – acquired in trade from the perpetually rebuilding Pirates in 2018 – is a free agent after this season.
Springer is a free agent after 2020, Correa after 2021. The Nationals know better than anyone you can’t keep everybody, as Corbin’s signing likely precluded retaining outfielder Bryce Harper.
The Astros would like to try.
“I hope so,” Correa says of keeping the band together. “I hope so. Why not? The team has been successful three years already, so I don’t see why you’d want to break that.”
That would require either the Astros sailing over the luxury tax threshold, or wholesale changes to the collective bargaining agreement after 2021 changing the state of play.
For now, their window remains open, the payoff for their investment in talent – young and old.
“I know that ‘Let The Kids Play’ is the thing,” says Bregman, referencing the MLB marketing campaign he’s participated in, “but there’s some veteran guys in this game that show the kids how to play.”