MLB rookie class off to uneven start after season's first month
Over the past week, we’ve witnessed a ton of attention and heightened expectations placed on the shoulders of young athletes who may or may not be ready to compete at their sport’s highest level.
Of course, I’m referring to the annual spectacle that is the NFL draft. But those same words could just as easily apply to MLB’s rookie class as well.
Potential. Upside. High ceiling. Few things get sports fans more excited.
While realizing the sample sizes are still small, let’s look at this season’s top rookie hitters and what the numbers tell us about our preseason expectations.
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Underperformers
(Statistics and earned 5x5 Rotisserie values through April 30 with auction price in AL/NL Leagues of Alternative Baseball Reality)
OF Jordan Walker, St. Louis Cardinals ($16 NL LABR; $12 Roto value).
Walker hasn’t been terrible, hitting .274 with two homers and 11 RBI in 73 at-bats. However, he hasn’t been appreciably better than any of the other Cardinal outfielders. And with the team struggling early, he wasn’t getting the regular playing time he needed to stay sharp. The most telling stat: 20 strikeouts and just three walks.
The Cardinals last week sent Walker to the minors, where he’s off to a slow start in his first few games. He’ll be back.
2B Miguel Vargas, Los Angeles Dodgers ($15 NL LABR; $6 Roto)
After showing both power and speed in the minors, Vargas hasn’t displayed either over 99 plate appearances with the Dodgers, hitting .213 with one homer and one stolen base.
One thing he has shown is excellent plate discipline with 17 walks and 19 strikeouts. He’s not chasing bad pitches, but he’s only swinging 41% of the time. (The MLB average this season is 47%.) According to Statcast, Vargas’ expected batting average and slugging percentage should be roughly 40 points higher than they are. A little more aggressiveness at the plate could be what gets him going.
IF Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles ($21 AL LABR; $5 Roto)
For potential franchise cornerstone, playing multiple positions as a rookie isn’t optimal. But Henderson has started at shortstop, third base and DH over the first month. Perhaps if Jorge Mateo wasn’t playing so well, Henderson might have already settled in as the everyday starter at short.
Like Vargas, he’s been patient at the plate. However, he’s swinging even less often (37%). Even though he hit just .189, his on-base percentage was still a solid .348. For someone who showed decent power metrics in the minors, it doesn’t look like time to panic.
1B Triston Casas, Boston Red Sox ($12 AL LABR; $4 Roto)
In what’s developing as a theme, Casas isn’t hitting for average – his .133 mark is the lowest in the majors for anyone with at least 60 at-bats – but he is walking at a high rate (17.4%). His biggest problem is when he does make contact, he’s not hitting it very hard (just 25.6%). The result is a mere three home runs and a putrid .152 average on balls in play.
SS Ezequiel Tovar, Colorado Rockies ($14 NL LABR; $1 Roto)
Playing every day and calling Coors Field home is a great recipe for success, but Tovar has yet to take advantage. Jumping to the majors last September with only five games of experience above Class AA may be a little too much for a 21-year-old to handle. He finished April without a home run or a stolen base, while striking out 30 times in 89 at-bats. Look for growing pains to continue.
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Overachievers
OF Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks ($23 NL LABR; $32 Roto).
As lofty as expectations were for Carroll following his impressive 32-game MLB debut last season, he’s been even better than advertised with a .309/.374/.536 slash line, four home runs and 10 stolen bases. He’s one of the fastest players in the game and he hits the ball extremely hard despite his 5-10, 165-pound frame. Perhaps the only thing that can derail him is an injury, as a collision with an outfield wall over the weekend revealed. Hopefully, it’s not too serious. Those who were all-in on Carroll have been rewarded.
3B Josh Jung, Texas Rangers ($10 AL LABR; $28 Roto).
Jung has been the best bargain by far among AL rookies. The 2019 first-rounder also got his feet wet last season, but the results were unspectacular – perhaps due to the lingering effects of shoulder surgery. This Ranger has come out of the gate with guns blazing. He hit .270 with six homers, 18 runs scored and 21 RBI over his first 100 at-bats in what has been the majors’ second-most productive offense (6.36 runs/game).
OF Masataka Yoshida, Boston Red Sox ($15 AL LABR; $22 Roto).
Yoshida came to the majors this season with a reputation in Japan as a solid hitter for average and on-base percentage. He’s delivered those, hitting .276 and getting on base at a .373 clip – thanks to a 12-to-11 walk-to-strikeout ratio.
But unlike some other less-experienced rookies, the 29-year-old Yoshida has added power to that outstanding plate discipline. He’s taken over the cleanup spot in Boston, smashed four homers and driven in 16 runs.
OF Esteury Ruiz, Oakland Athletics ($15 AL LABR; $21 Roto).
After stealing a total of 85 bases in the minor leagues last season, the only real question about Ruiz was whether he could hit enough to put his speed to use. After one month, the answer is yes. His .255 average and .336 on-base percentage aren’t spectacular, but Ruiz is 11-for-12 in stolen base attempts – which has fueled his fantasy value, even if the A’s aren’t scoring very many runs.
SS Anthony Volpe, New York Yankees ($5 AL LABR; $16 Roto).
Volpe seems to have shaken off his slow start with the bat after moving into the leadoff spot and hitting in front of Aaron Judge. With a decent 14.3% walk rate and a perfect 8-for-8 stolen base rate, he should score plenty of runs – and keep his fantasy value on the rise.
Class by himself
OF James Outman, Los Angeles Dodgers (NL LABR reserve; $34 Roto)
With far less fanfare than fellow rookie teammate Vargas, Outman is off to a scorching start. He’s barreling the ball at an elite rate, ranking in the 93rd percentile, according to Statcast. That’s resulted in a .292 average with seven home runs, three triples, four doubles and a .615 slugging percentage.
He is due for some regression, however, as a .396 average on balls in play suggests. His 33% strikeout rate opens the door to potential cold stretches, but even so, the overall metrics remain strong.
No rookie has come close to becoming a fantasy force the way Outman has. Just remember, the season is six months, not one. There could be more growth or a rookie wall – figuratively or literally – down the road that could alter the course for any of these potential young stars.