Elly De La Cruz lives up to the hype in first week as a major leaguer
In a season that’s seen a steady stream of intriguing prospects reach the majors almost every week, the pipeline finally burst last week with the arrival in Cincinnati of an electric young player who is as astounding on the playing field as he is on the stat sheet.
And even that introduction may be selling Elly De La Cruz short.
The Reds’ 6-foot-5 shortstop showed off every one of his tools during his debut week in the majors, hitting his first big league home run 458 feet, one row from completely leaving Great American Ballpark and taking a swim in the Ohio River.
He also showed off his speed, going from home to third on a triple in 10.83 seconds – faster than anyone else has all season.
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And he displayed defensive versatility, splitting his time in the field between shortstop and third base. On June 11, he ripped off the hardest throw by an infielder so far this season: 96.6 mph.
In his first six games, the 21-year-old hit .364 with a .481 on-base percentage, a homer, seven runs, four RBI and three steals.
It’s enough to make fans fall in love, writers struggle for superlatives and fantasy managers break the bank to add him to their rosters.
Elly De La Cruz makes instant impact
From a fantasy perspective, De La Cruz has so many things going in his favor.
In addition to his considerable raw talent, he’s on a team that hasn’t been afraid to throw young players directly into the fire. Already this season, the Reds have given regular playing time to rookie infielders Spencer Steer and Matt McLain and just elevated rookie pitcher Andrew Abbott into the starting rotation.
De La Cruz is playing in a home park that is one of the best in the majors for hitters, left-handed or right-handed. As a switch-hitter, he can take advantage of either.
And the Reds aren’t afraid to turn players loose on the bases, ranking second in the NL and tied for third in the majors in steals through June 11.
No wonder fantasy managers were fully prepared to empty their wallets over the weekend in leagues where De La Cruz was available on the waiver wire.
In general, I tend to spend my free agent budget aggressively in mixed leagues because the earlier you add a player, the more time he has to make a significant impact. However, in AL- or NL-only formats, I tend to be conservative early so I have a decent amount remaining at the trade deadline when star players can change leagues.
De La Cruz offered the best of both worlds. Not only does he have the talent to make as much of a fantasy splash as anyone who crosses over in a trade, he is available seven weeks ahead of the deadline – and will have more than half the season to contribute.
In two of my three leagues where De La Cruz was available, I had no chance to get him.
- LABR Mixed: $57 (out of $100) to Joe Sheehan; runner-up $36.
- FSGA: $381 (out of $1000) to RTSports.com’s Jeff Paur; runner-up $345.
But in the third, I had the second-highest free agent budget in the league ($693). I reserved a small cushion for the rest of the season, settling on $577. But the team ahead of me left nothing to chance by bidding $694.
In the National Fantasy Baseball Championships’ Main Event leagues, most of the winning bids landed in the $350-$550 range. (And one winning team in The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational apparently spent $995 of its $1,000 budget.)
Elly De La Cruz's potential vs. production
So what kind of numbers could the young phenom put up the rest of the way in Cincinnati? Let’s first take a quick step back.
In his first look at Class AAA pitching, De La Cruz posted a .297/.398/.633 slash line with 12 home runs and 11 stolen bases in 36 games. That line came with a 53.4% hard-hit rate – with an exit velocity as high as 118.8 mph. (That’s even harder than 2023 MLB leader Matt Olson’s 118.6 max EV.)
If there’s one flaw in De La Cruz’s game, it’s his tendency to swing and miss. In his first two minor league seasons, he struck out in more than 30% of his plate appearances.
But this year at Louisville, he cut his strikeout rate to 26.9% and nearly doubled his walk rate to 14%. That he improved plate discipline against tougher competition certainly bodes well for his ability to make adjustments in the majors.
Certainly, his first week with the Reds couldn’t have gone any better. It probably raised his already elevated expectations even higher. Is a 20-20 season going forward possible?
De La Cruz was promoted after the Reds’ 60th game of the season, meaning he could appear in up to 102 if he plays every day going forward.
Over the past 25 years, 14 rookies have hit 20 home runs in 100 or fewer games.
Over the past 25 years, 15 rookies have swiped 20 bases in 100 or fewer games.
(Courtesy: Baseball-Reference.com's Stathead)
But no rookie in modern baseball history (since 1900) has done both in a 100-game span. The closest was Fernando Tatis Jr. in 2019, when he had 22 homers and 16 steals in 84 games.
More like Fernando Tatis Jr. or Oneil Cruz?
Tatis provides an exciting comparison to what De La Cruz’s upside might be. Their games, styles and approaches are similar. In his rookie season, a 20-year-old Tatis had a strikeout rate just under 30% with an 8% walk rate. Yet De La Cruz has a friendlier home park and a team that’s more willing to give him the green light to steal.
On the other hand, toolsy prospects – even those at the high end of the scouting scale – can fall into slumps. The Pittsburgh Pirates’ 6-7 shortstop Oneil Cruz, with his equally amazing hitting, running and throwing skills, provides a cautionary tale. Currently on the injured list with a fractured leg, Cruz put up a .233/.294/.450 slash line last season with 17 homers, 10 steals and a 35% strikeout rate over 87 games in his first extended time in the majors.
The odds say De La Cruz falls somewhere in the middle of the two extremes. But I’m expecting much closer to the high end. His combination of skills and opportunity could easily put him among the top 10 shortstops the rest of the season. And once he qualifies at third base, he could rate similarly at that position.
That’s more than enough potential to justify the excitement De La Cruz generated after just one week in the majors.
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Follow Gardner on Twitter @SteveAGardner