2025 fantasy baseball Tuffy Awards: An ode to MLB's first-week flukes
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The talk of the 2025 MLB season’s first week was the New York Yankees’ home run barrage (15 in three games!) and an oddly shaped bat several of their sluggers have begun using.
But, like everything this early in the year, the sample sizes are still exceptionally small, and we shouldn’t jump to conclusions.
Of course, that doesn’t stop us from doing it anyway.
And that’s why we once again present our annual Tuffy Awards – an ode to overreactions big and small. They serve as a counterbalance for fantasy managers who get irrationally excited about little-known players’ early exploits, only to be let down when those players predictably return to their near-replacement level of production.
The inspiration for the awards is unheralded Chicago Cubs outfielder Karl “Tuffy” Rhodes, who hit three home runs off Dwight Gooden on opening day in 1994 and etched his name in baseball history.
Fantasy teams who grabbed Rhodes off the waiver wire (and kept him the rest of the season) were rewarded with five home runs and a .234 average from that point forward.
So with a mix of caution and skepticism, we sort through the early box scores in search of this year’s Tuffy.
They might be legit
Before we get to our big reveal, it’s important to note that not every surprising early-season performance is a fluke. There can be legitimate reasons players take a big step from one level to the next. Here are a few who could still be available on your league’s waiver wire.
SP MacKenzie Gore, Nationals. Gore has always possessed the raw talent to dominate hitters, but a lack of control has been his greatest obstacle. Against a powerful Phillies lineup on opening day, the No. 3 overall pick in 2017 had everything working to perfection. Gore allowed just one hit – and more importantly no walks – in six shutout innings, with a career-high 13 strikeouts. At age 26, he could be primed for a breakout season.
1Bs Spencer Torkelson, Tigers; Tyler Soderstrom, Athletics; Kyle Manzardo, Guardians. Lumping these three together because they all have high prospect pedigrees and power potential. Torkelson punctuated his stellar opening day homer with four walks (at last, some plate discipline!) and then stole a base the next day. Soderstrom went deep twice in his first game. And Manzardo built on an impressive spring with a pair of homers, a double and a triple in his first three games.
SP Kyle Freeland, Rockies. No, I’m not going to try to convince you to rely on a Rockies pitcher. But Freeland has a history of doing well in stretches. He tossed six shutout innings in Tampa, allowing two hits, no walks and striking out seven. If you can stream him in road starts only, he can be a useful addition.
Near-Tuffys
OF Wilyer Abreu, Red Sox. The Red Sox weren’t sure Abreu would be healthy enough to avoid the injured list as he was slowed by an illness and a 1-for-20 spring. But he went 7-for-10 with a pair of home runs and six RBI in a three-game series vs. the Rangers. Abreu put up a .781 OPS a year ago and is an excellent defender, but top prospect Roman Anthony will be ready soon and has nowhere else to play when he arrives.
3B Vinny Capra, Milwaukee Brewers. The closest thing we have to a true Tuffy, the 28-year-old journeyman surprisingly made the Milwaukee roster after hitting six homers in spring training. Then, in Capra-esque fashion, he got an opening day start against lefty Carlos Rodon and went deep in his first at-bat of the regular season. However, he’s on the short side of a platoon at third and his playing time will be limited even further when prospect Caleb Durbin is ready for the majors.
RP Luke Jackson, Rangers (and other “closers”). Sure, Jackson picked up a pair of saves against Boston. But he also got roughed up and took the loss in the first of three consecutive appearances. The Rangers could turn to any one of five different relievers to close games, so trying to make sense of any usage pattern from one series is a fool’s errand.
This also applies to anyone looking to extract saves from leftovers in the Reds, Pirates or even the Dodgers bullpens. You’re better off speculating on high-skilled relievers who are the clear No. 2 behind an established closer.
Entire White Sox starting rotation. Perhaps the most improbable stat from the opening weekend of the season was this starting pitching line from a team that lost a record 121 games a year ago:
- Games: 3
- Innings: 17
- Earned runs: 0
- ERA: 0.00
- WHIP: 0.94
Sean Burke (1 win), Davis Martin and Jonathan Cannon combined for the above numbers against the Angels. Now Burke was impressive in three late-season starts a year ago, but then again … maybe the Angels really are that bad offensively. Cannon and Co. should be no match for the torpedo bats they’ll face the rest of the way.
The 2025 Tuffy Rhodes
C Miguel Amaya, Cubs. Fittingly, a fellow Cub is this year’s Tuffy Award winner. Amaya has the benefit of an extra pair of games in Japan to bolster his season-opening stat line, but even while sharing the catching duties with Carson Kelly, he did some serious damage.
At a position that’s seriously lacking in fantasy league depth, the 26-year-old led the majors with four doubles and tied for the National League lead after the first weekend with seven RBI.
Who wouldn’t take those numbers from a second catcher? Problem is, unless you were desperate to fill a catcher spot on draft day, you didn’t get credit for those numbers.
In his two previous major league seasons, Amaya hit .214 and .232. He also doesn’t walk much and has minimal power (13 HR in 170 games). This season’s .313 batting average has come without a home run or a walk. And despite those four doubles so far, Amaya has scored just one run.
While it’s fine to ride the hot hand – especially in leagues that start two catchers – don’t get starry-eyed at stats that are unlikely to be repeated. Doing so could torpedo your season.