Mets free agency predictions: Where Jacob deGrom, Brandon Nimmo and others will be in 2023
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The key to the New York Mets' free agency lies with Jacob deGrom and the pitching staff.
How the Mets approach bringing back their ace and whether the two-time Cy Young Award winner wants to remain in Queens will set the course for how general manager Billy Eppler and owner Steve Cohen should proceed heading into the 2023 season.
The Mets made the first splash of free agency by bringing back closer Edwin Diaz on a record deal. Now, they will look to fill in some of their other massive holes that are left after deGrom, Brandon Nimmo and Chris Bassitt all rejected the Mets' qualifying offers.
That doesn't mean that none of that trio will be back in blue and orange next season.
The Mets have some of the most intriguing questions in front of them with free agency underway. Here is where we believe some of the Mets' biggest names will land and for how much:
Chris Bassitt
Chris Bassitt had an opportunity to remain with the Mets through a mutual option, but turned it down and then rejected the qualifying offer.
That does not necessarily mean Bassitt will be out the door, but he's certainly seeking long-term stability after leading the Mets with 181⅔ innings pitched and matching a team-high with 15 wins to go with a strong 3.42 ERA.
At 33, this could be Bassitt's last opportunity to get a sizable long-term deal. His vast repertoire, which includes below-average velocity on his fastball but mixes of his sinker, cutter, slider and curveball to keep hitters off balance, should not deteriorate as much with age.
During the postseason, Bassitt mentioned enduring the "gauntlet" that is pitching in New York and proving he was mentally tough enough to come through it. However, Bassitt's last memories of pitching with the Mets remained two tough ones after he was shelled by the Braves and Padres in must-win environments.
I think he'll head to a slightly smaller, still competitive market closer to home in the Midwest.
Prediction: Cardinals, 3 years, $57 million
Jacob deGrom
DeGrom's candidacy is one of the most loaded questions of this free-agent class.
On one hand, he is arguably the most dominant pitcher in baseball when he is on the field. With a fastball that eclipses triple-digits and a power slider in the low-90s, opponents often look overmatched when going against him. In 11 starts this season, deGrom struck out 42.7 percent of the batters he faced while posting a WHIP of 0.75.
But therein lies the rub. The Mets ace, who will be 35 next season, has thrown just 156⅓ innings across the last two seasons while dealing with forearm and shoulder injuries. That will factor into the length of deGrom's next deal.
Meanwhile, there is some skepticism over whether deGrom wants to play closer to his family in Florida. The Mets' front office would assuredly seek to keep the franchise's most dominant pitcher since Tom Seaver in their ranks. But the balance of long-term big money and a change in scenery could guide him elsewhere.
Prediction: Rangers, 3 years, $135 million
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Brandon Nimmo
For the first time in his seven-year major-league career, Brandon Nimmo has the chance to get paid. With Scott Boras leading his candidacy and Nimmo as the top outfield option available, a deal is likely to eclipse nine figures.
Eppler has made it known that he places a large value on on-base percentage and OPS. Nimmo fits that bill.
In three of his last five seasons, Nimmo's OBP has exceeded .400. After some injury-riddled seasons in 2019 and 2021, Nimmo showcased his durability in 2022 by playing a career-high 151 games and posting career-highs in runs (102) and RBI (64). He's the consummate leadoff hitter and will be a hot commodity.
But after several seasons without playoff experience, Nimmo has discussed his affinity for playing for a winner and in New York. The Rockies are reported to show interest, but if the Mets meet Nimmo's (and Boras') demands, I would expect him to stay patrolling center field at Citi Field.
Prediction: Mets, 5 years, $110 million
Taijuan Walker
DeGrom's departure would leave a chasm that would not be easily filled by one pitcher.
However, it might signal the return of Taijuan Walker, who declined a $6 million player option. At 30 years old, he was actually the youngest member of the Mets' starting rotation in 2022.
With a new split-changeup in his arsenal, Walker posted his best season with the Mets in 2022, racking up a 12-5 record with an ERA of 3.49 and WHIP of 1.20. After offseason knee surgery and an early IL stint with right shoulder bursitis, Walker eventually threw 157⅓ innings across 29 starts.
There would likely be some stiff competition for the services of Walker, who would bolster the middle of any rotation, but he has said that he enjoyed pitching in New York. A deal north of $14 million per season could seal his services through the next few years.
Prediction: Mets, 4 years, $58 million
FILLING THE GAPS
Carlos Rodon
If deGrom were to leave the only team that he has ever known, the Mets would likely be in heavy pursuit of the next consolation prize.
Carlos Rodon also comes with some risk after he dealt with shoulder issues and elbow surgery earlier in his career. But over the last two seasons with the White Sox and Giants, the 30-year-old lefty has flashed the dominance that made him a first-round pick in the 2014 MLB Draft.
With a strong fastball and knee-buckling slider, Rodon has been to two straight All-Star games. This past season, he made a career-high 31 starts while striking out 237 batters across 178 innings with a 2.88 ERA and WHIP of 1.03.
If deGrom is going to command similar money to what Max Scherzer received last year - $43.3 million over three years - then a deal for Rodon would be sustainable for a few more years and offer some financial flexibility.
Losing the face of the franchise would hurt, but bringing in Rodon would at least lessen the blow.
Prediction: Mets, 5 years, $130 million
Taylor Rogers
The Mets' bullpen will likely look very different heading into the 2023 season, but one area of focus needs to be bringing in a left-handed arm.
Joely Rodriguez, who was the team's lone left reliever in 2022, is a free agent. Taylor Rogers and Andrew Chafin are two of the bigger names available. After a tough 2022 season, Rogers, who has a career ERA of 3.42 and WHIP of 1.16, could come at more of a bargain.
If the 31-year-old could get back to his 2021 All-Star form, that would be a boon for the back of any team's bullpen.
The Mets might be expecting to lean on names such as Tylor Megill, Stephen Nogosek, John Curtiss and Joey Lucchesi to fill in some of the other gaps.
Prediction: Mets, 3 years, $16 million