As the Mets begin to sell, what might the roster look like in 2024?
NEW YORK — The first domino fell for the Mets on Thursday night, revealing the direction that the team's front office will likely head at the Aug. 1 trade deadline.
David Robertson's trade to the Marlins was the team's first with the aim of bolstering the organization in the future. With Robertson on an expiring contract, it did not make a huge ripple effect on the major league roster beyond this season.
There are some potential moves that could have larger bearing on the Mets future. As it stands, here is what we think the Mets could look like in 2024 based on the decision to sell:
Mets lineup
There may not be much turnover in the Mets' lineup ahead of the 2024 season.
One of the biggest questions comes with Pete Alonso, who will be entering his final season of arbitration before becoming an unrestricted free agent in 2025. Alonso's one-year, $14.5 million deal for 2023 was a record for a first baseman going through his second arbitration process. The Mets first baseman has a chance to be on the pantheon of Mets greats - he's already making noise to that effect - and it would be advantageous to lock him up before he becomes a free agent.
One of the noticeable voids might come in one of the corner outfield spots. Tommy Pham is on an expiring deal, while Mark Canha has an $11.5 million club option for 2024 which includes a $2 million buyout.
The Mets could also stand to gain some production from the designated hitter position. Daniel Vogelbach is in his third and final arbitration cycle. Could this be a spot where Mark Vientos or Ronny Mauricio carves out a role?
Some top names who could be available to fill either an outfield or designated hitter role are Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson, Charlie Blackmon and Teoscar Hernandez.
Otherwise, the Mets willy be hoping that their core players perform more in line with their own career marks.
Brandon Nimmo figures to be the Mets' table-setter for as long as he is able to after signing an eight-year, $162 million deal last offseason that will keep him in Flushing through 2031. Francisco Lindor is the only player that could be in New York longer, with his 10-year, $341-million deal keeping him until 2032.
Jeff McNeil will have three more years on his new deal next season, while Starling Marte will hope for a healthier campaign with two more years left on his four-year deal. Brett Baty and Francisco Alvarez will hope to continue to grow in their sophomore seasons.
Mets pitching rotation
The Mets pulled off a trade deadline stunner on Saturday when they traded Max Scherzer to the Rangers in exchange for Rangers shortstop prospect Luisangel Acuna.
The Mets will take on all but $22.5 million of Scherzer's salary. Now the question remains if Justin Verlander will be moved or remain for the 2024 season and beyond.
Beyond Scherzer and Verlander in 2024, Jose Quintana will have one more year on his deal as he aim to pitch a full season after missing nearly four months this season. Kodai Senga will be looking to build off an All-Star selection in his rookie season.
Carlos Carrasco is on an expiring deal and the Mets could go a handful of different ways to fill the No. 5 spot in the rotation. They could give one of their younger arms a chance; an option down below might be Mike Vasil, who has made seven Triple-A starts this season. Or maybe David Peterson or Tylor Megill will get another shot to try and keep the payroll down.
This season's free agent class is loaded with starting pitching and the Mets figure to hone in on one of the big names following Scherzer's trade. Some of the big free agent starts include Aaron Nola, Lucas Giolito, Sonny Gray, Julio Urias and Blake Snell, among the more valuable names.
Mets bullpen
The biggest addition for the Mets bullpen next season will come with the return of Edwin Diaz from a torn patellar tendon in his right knee.
Diaz signed a five-year, $102 million deal in the offseason — a record for a reliever — but hurt his knee while celebrating one of Puerto Rico's victories during the World Baseball Classic in March.
The Mets should largely have their high-leverage arms intact for next season in Adam Ottavino and Brooks Raley. Ottavino is in control of his future with a $6.75 million player option, while Raley has a $6.5 million club option for 2024. With the likelihood of team control in 2024, it would take a strong offer for either one of these pitchers to exit New York.
The Mets also have control over Drew Smith and Trevor Gott through arbitration and Grant Hartwig through pre-arbitration ahead of next season.