Tarik Skubal is making history. So which Detroit Tigers will join him at MLB All-Star Game?
- The Detroit Tigers played a three-game series at Comerica Park against the Chicago Cubs, with a large number of Cubs fans in attendance.
- The Tigers won two out of three games, improving their record to 43-24, and are leading the AL Central.
- Tarik Skubal is having a historically dominant season, with a 1.61 ERA and 95 strikeouts with only three walks over his last 11 starts.
Belated greetings from Wrigley Field East … er, we mean … Comerica Park.
In our defense, the three straight sellout crowds at the Detroit Tigers’ stomping grounds had a distinctly Cubbie Blue tinge. If the weekend had been a World Series matchup instead of a mere World Series Preview™ (as noted by Our Man Seidel), that might have been a problem.
But for three gorgeous (and, yeah, smoky) June days, it was just fine to see the occasional Ernie Banks jersey joining those of Javier Báez (for both teams!) and Hall of Famers Al Kaline, Miguel Cabrera (well, soon) and Lou Whitaker (well, not soon enough) in CoPa seats galore (actually all in one row).
In case the weekend’s total attendance of 121,509 — not so long ago the attendance for an entire 10-game homestand — wasn’t enough to clue us in on how big a series this was in the Motor City, we even had Tigers manager A.J. Hinch accidentally letting it slip that he does, on occasion, look ahead during a season.
When asked about the performance of the Cubs’ young pitchers — and, in particular, Cade Horton, the starter on Sunday, June 8 — Hinch was quick to credit the Cubs despite the Tigers taking two of three games: “Yeah, no, we don’t need to see him again — unless it really, really matters.”
That would be, of course, in a potential World Series. As for now?
The Tigers sit at 43-24, half a game up on the Mets for the, ahem, Best Record in Baseball™, while the Cubs lead the NL Central, half a game behind the Mets for the NL’s best record.
With all these capital letters, well, gosh, you’d almost think it’s time for the Fall Classic™. But before we get to the October fun, we’ve got the Midsummer Classic™ in just a bit over five weeks.
Hello, and welcome back to the Purr-fect Game Newsletter™, brought to you this week (again) by the letters “A,” “S,” “G” (and “TM”).
So just how many Tigers will be repping the American League in the 95th All-Star Game™ at Atlanta’s Truist Park on July 15?
Obviously, there's a while before we get the official answer — online voting began Wednesday, June 4, (with five votes allowed per person, per day) and early totals for the starters should come out this week, with the finalists announced on June 26, the starters getting their nods on July 2 and the full rosters (selected by player vote and the commissioner’s office) announced on July 6.
But if the Tigers keep winning like this and take that BRIB™ into the first week of July?
The past 20 teams with the first-half BRIB™ (excluding 2020, naturally) have averaged 5.5 All-Stars a season. MLB’s BRIB™ has gotten even more respect recently, with six of the past seven first-half leaders hitting the over — at least six All-Stars. (The lone exception: the 2021 Giants, who mustered just three All-Stars before flaming out in the NLDS.) The upper limit, meanwhile, appears to be nine All-Stars, reached by the 2004 Yankees; more recently, the 2023 Braves and 2024 Phillies each had eight All-Star reps.
So what are some individual Tigers’ chances? Let’s run through our highly scientific, in-no-way-made-up odds, updating our projections from roughly five weeks ago …
All stats entering Monday's games.
[ MUST LISTEN: Make "Days of Roar" your go-to Detroit Tigers podcast, available anywhere you listen to podcasts (Apple, Spotify) ]
OF Kerry Carpenter: Off
Last month’s odds: 100-1.
The buzz: The platoon splits — an .848 OPS vs. righties and a .594 OPS vs. lefties — are killers, but he could have worse lines on his résumé than his three-homer game against the White Sox on Monday, June 2, and his dynamite outfield assist against the Cubs on Sunday. At least as long as it’s not just Windy City residents making the call.
RHP Will Vest: 500-1
Last month’s odds: N/A.
The buzz: Vest will likely never get the official “closer” tag — at least as long as Hinch is managing — but he has pitched in the ninth inning or later in his past 14 appearances, dating back to the start of May, en route to 10 saves (tied for 11th in the AL) and a 1.67 ERA (10th among AL relievers with at least 20 appearances). That run includes a 0.93 ERA with 19 strikeouts and just four walks in 19⅓ innings — only Minnesota’s Jhoan Duran has produced as much WAR in relief (both are at 0.8 per FanGraphs’ calculations) over that span.
RHP Tommy Kahnle: 100-1
Last month’s odds: 25-1.
The buzz: Kahnle’s three four-seam fastballs (in 11 pitches) on Sunday put him at a 15.9% four-seamer usage this month, way up from … 15.2% last month. Maybe it’s a bit too soon to expect, as Hinch joked Sunday, that “the next scouting report says that he’s more of a fastball guy than the changeup,” but the offspeed-heavy mix is one of the most effective in the majors, with Kahnle’s ERA (1.26) and WHIP (0.733) ranking third among AL relievers (with at least 20 appearances).
[ ENJOYING THIS NEWSLETTER? Sign up for a weekly email delivery of The Purr-fect Game, a dose of Tigers news, numbers and analysis for Freep subscribers. ]
UTIL Javier Báez or Zach McKinstry: 100-1
Last month’s odds: 1,000-1, 500-1.
The buzz: Both McKinstry and Báez are listed on the AL All-Star ballot as outfielders, but their routes to the Midsummer Classic at that spot seem unlikely; their OPSes rank 12th and 25th, respectively. But is there a back door to Atlanta for either of the Tigers’ most versatile fielders? Perhaps in a utility role, which landed ex-Tiger Willi Castro an All-Star nod with a .774 OPS in the first half last season?
Báez and McKinstry are two of just four AL’ers with at least 170 plate appearances and 10% of their games played at shortstop, third base and the outfield. Within that group, Castro’s .797 OPS is tops, followed by McKinstry at .775 and Báez at .717 (and the order shifted virtually every day last week). Are those All-Star-worthy OPSes? Maybe not … unless AL manager Aaron Boone is already looking ahead for someone to shift around the field in the late innings.
C Dillon Dingler: 50-1
Last month’s odds: Off.
The buzz: Full credit to Dingler, who we knocked a month ago for having zero walks over his first 94 plate appearances while posting a .301/.309/.495 slash line. In 92 plate appearances since, though, Dingler’s up to … five walks. Baby steps, we suppose. Still, his slash line remains a robust .287/.317/.449 overall, somewhat behind the unquestioned AL starter, Cal Raleigh — the Seattle star leads the league in homers (26) and nickname quality (“Big Dumper”). But there’s a three-way logjam for the backup spot with Dingler, Boston’s Carlos Narváez and LA.’s Logan O’Hoppe each having their cases. In short: Dingler is second among AL catchers (with at least 170 plate appearances) in batting average and fifth in RBIs, Narváez has the best on-base percentage and defense of the trio and O’Hoppe has the top pop, with a 14-homer total that’s second among AL catchers.
OF Riley Greene: 10-1
Last month’s odds: 75-1.
The buzz: The duality of man … er, Greene … continues. On Saturday afternoon, the 2024 All-Star went 0-for-4 with four strikeouts. On Sunday … 2-for-4 with 2 RBIs (albeit with another strikeout). For the season, his 86 strikeouts lead the American League (and have him on a 211-strikeout pace, which would be a franchise record) … but his .815 OPS is fourth among AL outfielders (with at least 200 plate appearances). His spot on the All-Star team seems secure … but a first-half strikeout leader hasn’t made the AL All-Star team since 2018. (That was Aaron Judge, who had 25 homers at the time, making the whiffs a lot easier to overlook.)
Of course, Greene could put this debate to rest with a hot stretch this month … as Carpenter put it after Sunday’s win, “I kept telling him he’s one at-bat away from the best stretch of his career.” Greene’s response: “I mean, I hope so.”
1B Spencer Torkelson: 2-1
Last month’s odds: 2-1.
The buzz: After spending spring training fighting for a big-league job, Torkelson has looked every bit of the 2020 No. 1 overall pick — he leads AL first basemen in doubles (15), homers (15), RBIs (45) and slugging percentage (.500). It’s not a fluke, either, as Statcast has him in the 80th percentile or better — among all MLB hitters, not just first basemen — in barrel percentage (14.1%, up from 6.7% in 2024), launch-angle sweet-spot percentage (40.5%, up from 31.5%), chase percentage (20.2%, down from 23.2%) and walk rate (12.5%, up from 8.7%).
As Hinch noted Sunday afternoon after Torkelson drove in a pair of runs in the first inning with a 381-foot opposite-field double, “I like just how he did it , not just what he did, in a big spot as he’s done for however many games he’s played. It feels like he’s right in the middle of it, all the time.”
2B Gleyber Torres: Even
Last month’s odds: 10-1.
The buzz: Torres’ biggest challenger might be the Twins’ Castro, who has a .797 OPS (over 173 plate appearances) while playing at second in just 51.1% of his games this season. Among full-time second basemen qualified for the batting title, however, no one in the AL is topping Torres’ .381 on-base percentage or his .775 OPS.
He’s not the flashiest infielder in the AL, but as Hinch told Our Man Seidel last week): “He wants to hit and his knowledge of the strike zone is arguably as good as any hitter that we have.”
If we were betting, we’d pick the Tigers to get four All-Stars (their most since 2015): Greene, Torkelson, Torres and ... just one left to go. But we’ll get to him in just a bit, after we take a quick look ahead …
Mark your calendars!
It’s a six-game week for the Tigers, starting with a Monday off — all the better to debate their All-Star futures — before they hit Baltimore for a three-game set against the AL East cellar-dwelling Orioles (who’ve already fired their manager) from June 10-12. That’s followed by a three-game set at the CoPa starting June 13 against the playoff-hopeful Reds, just 4½ games out of the NL’s final wild-card spot under new manager (and old AL Central rival) Terry Francona.
Tigers birthdays this week: Al Alburquerque (39 on June 10), Avisail Garcia (34 on June 12), Tyler Holton (29 on June 13), James McCann (35 on June 13) and Drew Smyly (36 on June 13).
Celebrate 125 seasons of the Tigers with our new book!
Odds and evens
Sunday’s win brought the Tigers’ 162-game pace back up to 104 wins, which would match the franchise record set in 1984. Meanwhile, their plus-92 run differential is good for third in the majors, behind only the Yankees (plus-95) and the … Cubs (plus-105). No wonder A.J. is already looking to October. But what do the algorithms say about the Tigers’ chances?
Baseball Reference: The Tigers are getting credit in this model for their final 33 games in 2024 (when they finished 23-10) and their 43-24 record in 2024 — all told, that’s a .660 winning percentage, with bbref’s 1,000 simulations putting its projection of the Tigers’ finish at 99 wins, down from 100 last week. (The lesson, as always: Don’t lose to the White Sox.) The playoff odds, though, dipped from 99.9% to 99.8% (which is where they were the week before that). And the World Series title chances? Up to 17.5% (from last week’s 14.5%), tied with the Yankees for best in the AL.
Baseball Prospectus: So many simulations — and math! — have the Tigers at 91.8 wins (from 92.1 last week), nearly four games better than the Twins (88). BP’s playoff chances for the Tigers dropped a skootch, too, going from 93.4% to 91.3%, but the World Series victory odds jumped to 9% (from 8.8%). (The Cubs have an 11% chance of winning it all, by the way.)
FanGraphs: Their projections —based on 20,000 sims, as always — are starting to like the Tigers, or at least dislike the Twins, with Detroit at a projected 93 wins, nearly eight clear of Minnesota. The Tigers’ postseason odds, meanwhile, are up to 96.2% while the World Series title odds are up to 9.1%. As always, take all projections with a Comerica Park Super Slice of skepticism — at this time, last year, the Tigers’ postseason odds were a mere 17.5%.
Of course, while we might be skeptical of the algorithms, there’s one Tiger we fully believe in …
Closing time (and the starter): LHP Tarik Skubal: Easy money!
Last month’s odds: C’mon …
The buzz: Hey, if you can find someone willing to bet Skubal won't make the All-Star game ... but at this point, the only debate is whether Skubal will be the AL’s starting pitcher (after being snubbed in favor of then-Orioles righty Corbin Burnes last season). That's thanks to an all-time heater — since opening the season with a 5.91 ERA and 10 strikeouts in his first two starts combined, Skubal has racked up a 1.61 ERA in 72⅔ innings, with 95 strikeouts and three walks. THREE.
In fact, he’s the only pitcher in MLB history to even top 90 strikeouts with three walks or less over an 11-game span in a single season. EVER.
As for his season overall? He’s seventh among AL starters in ERA (2.16), second in strikeouts (105) and WHIP (0.816) and first in strikeouts per nine innings (11.3), walks per nine innings (0.8), strikeout-to-walk ratio (15) and FIP (1.84).
Then again, considering those numbers, it’s not much of a debate after all, is it?
Contact Ryan Ford at rford@freepress.com. Follow him on X (which used to be Twitter, y’know?) @theford and on BlueSky at @theford.bsky.social.