Yankees free agency predictions: Where Aaron Judge, others will be in 2023 and why
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NEW YORK – An early reunion was secured this week, as the Yankees and Anthony Rizzo agreed on a new contract.
The speed of that deal – worth $40 million guaranteed, with a club option for 2025 – provided some needed clarity to the Yanks’ offseason.
But it’s just the beginning, with Aaron Judge’s free agency at the heart of the Yankees’ winter plans.
Here’s a look at the Yankees' list of notable free agents, and some predictions about where they’ll land:
Aaron Judge
Maybe only a few teams have the spending power and the will to sign Judge, coming off an historic offensive season.
Judge’s hometown San Francisco Giants are viewed as the primary competition, but the Los Angeles Dodgers, Los Angeles Angels, Chicago Cubs and Boston Red Sox might have something to say.
Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner revealed he’s had multiple conversations with Judge about keeping him in pinstripes, including a one-on-one chat, and compared him to Derek Jeter.
“Like Jeter was, he’s just classic lead-by-example. Everything you’d want in a Yankee,’’ said Steinbrenner, who also discussed the formal designation of the team’s captaincy with Judge.
Ultimately, Judge’s brand is better as a Yankee and the Face of the Franchise remains in the Bronx.
Prediction: Yankees, 9 years $342 million.
Andrew Benintendi
This week, Steinbrenner lamented the club’s injury situation after the All-Star break.
“I wish the team in June had been the team we had in October,’’ he said.
Benintendi was not on that high-flying first-half club but was added via trade for the stretch run and postseason.
That was all derailed by a surprising right hamate fracture, ending his season in early September and costing the Yanks in October.
But there’s incentive to keep the lefty-hitting plus-defender in left field, adding better balance to Aaron Boone’s lineup.
Prediction: Yankees, 3 years, $36 million.
Jameson Taillon
In his two Yankees seasons, the right-hander has been a durable and solid rotation piece, coming off a second Tommy John surgery.
A reunion isn’t out of the question, but the Yanks already have five or six starters (Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes, Luis Severino, Frankie Montas, Domingo German, Clarke Schmidt) and probably spend elsewhere.
Prediction: Cubs, 3 years, $39 million.
Matt Carpenter
Injuries to Carpenter, Benintendi and DJ LeMahieu deeply impacted the Yanks’ second half.
Before he fouled a ball off his foot in early August, suffering a fracture that wrecked his season, the lefty-hitting Carpenter had relocated his All-Star swing, batting .305 with 15 homers and a 1.138 OPS in 47 games.
But he’s entering his age-37 season and the Yanks have some roster depth, with the likes of switch-hitting Oswaldo Cabrera.
Maybe a St. Louis reunion is in the cards?
Prediction: Cardinals, 1 year, $9 million.
Zack Britton
Speaking of reunions, perhaps the veteran lefty reliever heads back to Baltimore to help a young club get to the postseason.
Coming off Tommy John surgery, Britton was clearly disappointed not to have helped the Yankees' October cause, which was his goal.
There’s always a chance he returns to the Bronx, at age 35, but more likely this is goodbye.
Prediction: Orioles, 1-year, $6 million, with an $8 million club option for 2024 (or $1 million buyout).
Aroldis Chapman
This seven-year marriage (interrupted a few months with his summer of 2016 trade to the Cubs) was ending at year’s end.
But it was officially over when Chapman went AWOL before the postseason, choosing to stay home when it became clear he’d be left off the playoff roster.
In an incentive-laden deal, some club will take a chance on his age-35 season, hoping to straighten out his mechanics.
Prediction: Rangers, 1 year, $5.5 million.
Free agents the Yankees might pursue
Carlos Rodon: Entering his age-30 season, the lefty starter is coming off two All-Star seasons, posting a 2.67 ERA and 0.998 WHIP since Opening Day of 2021.
Masataka Yoshida: A high-contact lefty hitter with a .326 career batting average in Japan, he's expected to play in the majors in 2023, and might be the alternative to Benintendi in left field.
Andrew Chafin: Another proven lefty reliever would suit the Yankees, and the well-traveled veteran has posted a 2.59 ERA and 1.084 WHIP in 150 games since the 2020 season.