How Alex Palou can clinch fourth IndyCar championship at Portland
- Alex Palou leads Pato O'Ward by 121 points leaving Laguna Seca and heading to the third-to-last race at Portland with a maximum of 162 points available to end the year.
- Among the clinching scenarios for Palou at Portland, he can lock down a title with a runner-up finish and leading one lap.
It’s official: Alex Palou’s lone remaining 2025 IndyCar title challenger Pato O’Ward no longer has control of his longshot of all longshot title hopes still with three races remaining in the season.
What does that mean?
It means that no matter what O’Ward does, even if he were to pull off a max points weekend at Portland International Raceway next month, Palou could still end the Arrow McLaren driver’s mathematical shot at what would be his first IndyCar title in his seven-year career by virtue of a runner-up finish and leading a lap.
In stick-and-ball sports with teams battling for playoff spots, we’d say a team no longer has control of its own destiny. Although it’s felt that way for the Chip Ganassi Racing driver’s title challengers for two months or more, it’s mathematically locked in now, after Palou snagged his eighth win of the season — becoming the first driver in the sport to do so since 2007 (Sebastien Bourdais) and the first outside the split (Al Unser Jr.).
Palou’s 2025 campaign is one of just 10 driver seasons in the various iterations of major American open-wheel racing dating back to 1946 to have reached eight wins — a feat only seven other drivers have reached (Mario Andretti did so three times with eight wins each in 1966 and 1967 and nine in 1969).
He reached that milestone Sunday at Laguna Seca — a race he won from pole, the fourth time he’s done so this season in five out-front starts, compared to a 1-8 record for the rest of the field — by thoroughly dominating the race at the central California track yet again, leading 84 of 95 laps and only briefly surrendering the lead to an off-sequence Nolan Siegel during a pit cycle.
It was Palou’s third win at the track over his last four starts, continuing his run of five starts at Laguna Seca without a finish off the podium.
“I think this was probably one of our best weekends ever,” Palou said. And even yet, after having eliminated 25 of the series’ 27 full-season drivers from title contention with three rounds left and O’Ward 121 points adrift, Palou remained unwilling to put on the crown just yet.
“It’s never over until it’s over,” he said. “I think I proved that at Mid-Ohio, and we’ve seen that in the past as well.
“It’s not done until it’s done. We still need to win it. We still need to keep our heads down and try to win some more races.”
How Alex Palou can clinch 2025 IndyCar title at Portland
Palou’s correct; the No. 10 CGR crew led by strategist Barry Wanser, engineer Julian Robertson and crew chief Ricky Davis would’ve needed to leave Laguna Seca with a 162-point cushion to O’Ward in order to have this championship wrapped up with three races remaining — a feat made impossible by virtue of the combination of O’Ward’s Toronto win a week ago and Palou’s 12th-place finish that slashed 30 points off the championship leader’s advantage down to 99.
But Palou needs to be just 108 points up on O’Ward leaving Portland on Aug. 10 to lock the championship up, meaning the young Mexican driver needs to make up a minimum of 14 points to stay mathematically alive.
The maximum points any driver can score in a non-Indy 500 event is 54 — including 50 for a win, a point each for winning pole and leading at least one lap and two points for leading the most laps of any driver. Those bonus points can trickle down to any other driver on the grid (with the caveat that only one driver can win pole and only one can lead the most laps in the race), so there aren’t point totals a driver finishing in a certain spot would earn.
But the base point awards for given finishing positions are as follows: 40 points for second; 35 for third; 32 for fourth; 30 points for fifth (and two fewer for each successive position down to 20 for 10th); 19 points for 11th (and one fewer for each successive position down to five for 25th); five points for each position below 25th.
Without listing every single points possibility that would either keep O’Ward alive or allow Palou to clinch (keeping in mind O’Ward stays alive by making up at least 14 points and Palou can clinch at Portland by staying within 13 points of O'Ward), here are the nuggets of note that would allow Palou to secure Aug. 10 his fourth IndyCar title in five years:
- If O’Ward has a max points weekend (54), Palou can control his own destiny by finishing runner-up and leading at least one lap at the track where he’s won twice in four starts (2021 and 2023) and finished runner-up a year ago.
- If O’Ward doesn’t win but finishes runner-up with max bonus points (44), Palou could clinch with a fourth-place finish (32 points) or fifth place with a lap led (31).
- Should O’Ward simply finish runner-up without a bonus point (40 points), Palou could finish as low as seventh with one bonus point (27 points) or sixth (28 points) and clinch.
- Let’s say O’Ward takes third (35 points) at a track where his previous best finish was fourth and his best qualifying performance was fifth (and where he started 22nd and finished 15th a year ago); Palou could clinch a title finishing ninth.
- How about finishing fifth (30 points)? Palou could wrap up the title fight with a run to 13th (17 points), which would mark his worst finish at the track. During his 81-race career with CGR, Palou has only finished 13th or worse 11 times, and he’s only done so four times in his last 53 starts — all of which have come either via in-race contact or mechanical malfunctions.
- If O’Ward were to finish in ninth with a bonus point (23 points), Palou would need to just finish 20th (10 points), something he’s only done five times as a Ganassi driver, to clinch the title.
- If O’Ward finishes 10th (20 points), Palou would clinch his title by finishing 23rd in a 27-car field (seven points).
- By finishing 12th (18 points), Palou need only start the Portland race (a minimum of five points) and the championship is his.
Alternate scenarios for Alex Palou to clinch IndyCar championship needing two starts after Portland
But there are additional ways in which Palou could leave Portland knowing he and the No. 10 crew need only take the green flag in the final two races of the season at the Milwaukee Mile and Nashville Superspeedway, earning a minimum of five points in both instances, to clinch the title.
With Palou’s 121-point cushion, he need score a minimum of 41 points over the final three races to guarantee himself the championship. O'Ward could finish with a run of three perfect 54-point weekends, and 41 additional points for Palou would still wrap things up.
That 41-point target would amount to finishing 16th in the final three races (without any bonus points), for 42 points. None of the top 8 drivers in points have suffered a three-race stretch at any point this year where they’ve scored fewer than 41 points, and Palou has never had such a stretch in his five seasons with Ganassi.
With that in mind, given Palou’s lead and the knowledge that holding an 108-point lead after Portland would secure his fourth championship, he would only needs a 98-point cushion leaving the 15th race of the season to feel as if things are locked up given five points if he starts the final two races.
Here's a sampling of how Palou could maintain a 98-point leaving Portland and needing to start the final two races for the championship:
- If O’Ward put together a max weekend (54 points), Palou could finish fourth (32 points) or fifth with a lap led (31 points).
- If O’Ward scores the minimum while still winning the race (51 points), Palou could finish sixth (28 points).
- Should O’Ward do no better than a max points runner-up finish (44 points), Palou could finish ninth (22 points) or 10th with a bonus point (21 points).
- If O’Ward has just a basic second-place finish (40 points), Palou could finish 13th (17 points).
- If O’Ward has a traditional third-place finish (35 points), Palou need finish no better than 18th (12 points).
- With O’Ward taking fifth (30 points), Palou could finish 23rd (seven points).
- If O’Ward finishes sixth (28 points), Palou need just start the Portland race.
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