Indy 500 expert predictions: Who does IndyStar think wins the Greatest Spectacle in Racing?
IndyStar didn't have a great history when it came to predicting the results of the Indianapolis 500 but that appears to be changing.
I'm sure I don't need to remind you who picked Josef Newgarden in 2023 -- OK, it was me. And last year, IndyStar Motor Sports Insider Nathan Brown picked Newgarden to repeat, so that's two years in a row. Not only that, we had several strong showings in last year's predictions.
But the winner of the best IndyStar predictions last year is ... photographer Grace Hollars. She picked Scott McLaughlin to win (he finished 6th), Scott Dixon for second (third) and Alexander Rossi third (fourth). Former interns Zion Brown (Rossi-McLaughlin-Palou (fifth) and Kyle Smedley (McLaughlin-Rossi-Paulo) and trending writer Scott Horner (Ferrucci eighth-McLaughlin-Dixon) also had a strong showing. Here are this season's predictions:
Nathan Brown, Motor Sports Insider
1. Alex Palou: Is it predictable? Yes, but Palou has proven over the course of the last three months that picking against him is largely silly. He’s yet to win on an oval in his career, but the championship leader checks that box with the help of a pit crew that’s been nearly flawless all year and a car that’s been near the top of the charts virtually every session this month.
2. Scott Dixon: He, like his teammate Palou, has been around the top of the charts virtually all month, and when he can avoid fluke in-race issues, you can count on Dixon being right near the top at the checkered flag.
3. Josef Newgarden: Two years ago, we saw Palou climb all the way from outside the top-25 on Lap 100 to make his way to 4th-place by the checkered flag. With another 100 laps to work with as a driver who’s clearly mastered this place in recent years, I don’t think you can count out Newgarden as someone who could factor into this race late.
Gregg Doyel, columnist
1. Alex Palou: Because Alex Palou
2. Josef Newgarden: Because he’ll have a rocket ship engine
3. Will Power or Scott McLaughlin: Because maybe they’ll have a rocket engine too
Dana Hunsinger Benbow, enterprise writer
1. Takuma Sato: This two-time Indy 500 champ has the skill, the experience and the IMS wisdom to become the oldest winner in history at 48.
2. Scott Dixon: Going with another veteran, the 44-year-old, one-time Indy 500 winner has chased a second victory the past 17 years. Dixon is due.
3. Robert Shwartzman: The first rookie to win the pole in more than 40 years will keep his racing fairy tale alive, finishing in the top 3.
Clark Wade, video
1. Pato O'Ward: This time Pato waits patiently on the last lap to pass Rosenqvist for the win.
2. Felix Rosenqvist: Feilix has been under the radar with a fast car but will fall short.
3. Alex Palou: Once again, Palou comes up short on an oval track.
Scott Horner, trending writer
1. Alex Palou: He has been winning everything (almost) this year, so why not this.
2. Takuma Sato: His two race wins have come from top-4 starting positions. This is his best start yet.
3. Conor Daly: Here's his dream scenario: He wins the race, then hits a game-winning jumper in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals for the Pacers, then has Noblesville High School renamed for him.
Aaron Ferguson, motor sports editor
1. Scott Dixon: It would be a statement weekend for Ganassi to win after being outspoken about Penske. Dixon won in 2008 and has finished second three times and has five poles, so I’m trusting the veteran.
2. Pato O’Ward: It’s not quite the breakthrough O’Ward seeks, but he’s ran well at the 500 and has a cool confidence to him. He’s had many orange-clad fans at the track supporting him, too.
3. Alex Palou: Speaking of breakthrough, it would fit that Palou’s season dominance extends to his first oval win. His speeds in cooler track temperatures are notable and, really, I’m going against the popular pick.
Grace Hollars, photographer
1.Pato O’Ward: McLaren can win this race with Pato or Christian (Lundgaard) but I really think with Team Penske behind on the grid, O’Ward he can make it happen this year.
2.Felix Rosenqvist: Felix is due for a win at the oval
3.Scott Dixon: Because you can never count him out!
Josh Heron, intern
1. Alex Palou: He’s had a stellar season, winning four of the first five races in the NTT IndyCar Series.
2. Felix Rosenqvist: He finished first in the Fast 12 with a four-lap average speed of 232.523 mph. I think he carries the momentum into Sunday.
3. Robert Shwartzman: Prema and its rookie driver have a fast car but a lack of experience will cost them in the latter laps of the race.
Mykal McEldowney, photographer
1. Christian Lundgaard: Three drivers have won the Indianapolis 500 starting from the 8th position and I think Lundgaard makes it four. He’s currently led 49 laps out of the season’s five races and sits in 3rd in points with three top 5 finishes. He’s driving well and his car is fast. Watch out for Lundgaard.
2. Pato O’Ward: It just feels like it’s time for O’Ward. If he doesn’t squeeze out a win he’ll be a close second place.
3. Takuma Sato: Sato is sneaky good (and fast). Look for Sato in place in the top three. He won in 2017 and 2020, so he knows how to win in Indy.
Nathan Baird, sports reporter
1. Pato O'Ward: Would be poetic justice after he spoke up about the Penske violations over the weekend. Also, he's due after taking second two of the last three years.
2. Scott McLaughlin: Started on the pole last year, led 40 laps and finished third in points for the season. Seems poised for a breakthrough.
3. Scott Dixon: Knows how to win this race and is starting from a strong position.
Nat Newell, sports editor
1. Scott McLaughlin: Have a feeling the only Team Penske driver not on the last row will figure out a way to pull off the win.
2. David Malukas: He caused a caution in the Grand Prix, karma get him second in the 500.
3. Kyle Larson: He's been under the radar but he'll get noticed on race day.