Ryan: NASCAR's Chase could be no-win situation
Winning meant everything during the regular season in NASCAR this year.
Could it mean virtually nothing in the postseason?
Yes.
Sunday's debut of the restructured Chase for the Sprint Cup will introduce several new elements. The addition of eliminations. Resetting the points every three races. A season finale in which the best finish among four finalists earns a championship.
It also will signal a fundamental shift in the way teams can approach the title vs. the regular season.
Under this year's revamped Chase, a victory was the surest way to guaranteeing a championship berth. But as the 10-race title playoff begins, it won't be essential to winning the title.
A win will guarantee advancement into the next round, but unless it occurs at Homestead, it'll be mostly incidental in crowning a champion. With the round-by-round resets, there will be no transferable bonus points for victories.
That helps increase the likelihood of a winless champion, which is borne out by modeling with the new format.
Four times in the past seven seasons, the champion would have been a driver who didn't score a victory in the final 10 races. Twice, it would have been a champion who went winless for an entire season (Dale Earnhardt Jr. last year and Kevin Harvick in 2008).
NASCAR officials have tried to minimize those results, arguing that varying strategies under the new format would bring differing outcomes.
But some drivers aren't downplaying the prospect of a winless champion — nor do they think it's necessarily a negative.
"The possibility is real," six-time series champion Jimmie Johnson said. "Against the way the whole premise of the Chase has been created and winning is so important, I feel that it's good to have an opportunity to reward consistency. Let's be honest: Everything about our sport revolves around consistency. Our races are marathons. We race (36) times a year, and to have it not be represented in our championship, I think would be wrong.
"I know it wouldn't be a fan-favorite if somebody won the championship and didn't win, but I think you have to have that in mind somewhere. I'm not surprised that could happen."
It's relatively plausible when you consider:
--At least nine non-winners will advance from the first round and five from the second round (more if there are winners who aren't Chase eligible in the first six races).
--It's widely assumed that three winners will advance from the penultimate round, but two of those tracks tend to be tailored more toward drivers instead of teams, which could open up more slots via points.
Only seven active drivers have won at Martinsville Speedway over the past 12 years, and Phoenix International Raceway has produced winners from outside the Chase (Kasey Kahne in 2011). Depending on who's eliminated in the first two rounds, it's a distinct possibility the winner at either track could come from outside the final eight (which is less likely at Texas Motor Speedway, a 1.5-mile superspeedway that puts a heavier emphasis on teams with consistently strong handling and horsepower).
--It's easier to overcome a poor finish than the previous system. Earnhardt essentially was knocked out of the title hunt last year with a 35th in the opener at Chicagoland Speedway because of an engine failure.
Under the new format, he still would have escaped elimination by finishing sixth at New Hampshire Motor Speedway and second at Dover International Speedway. He would have won the championship with a third at Homestead.
Earnhardt averaged a career-best finish in the Chase of 8.5 last year. That is respectable, but it ranked behind a trio of drivers (Johnson, Harvick and Matt Kenseth) who also had two wins apiece in the Chase.
If such circumstances unfold this season, it'll be tricky for NASCAR to reconcile them with its yearlong emphasis on winning. Since unveiling the new championship format in January, the drumbeat has been unrelenting.
But in the Chase, the only win that truly matters isn't about a checkered flag. It's the championship.
Is that a no-win scenario? We'll find out.
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