Dale Jr., Gordon lead list of drivers to watch in Daytona 500
DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. — Hendrick Motorsports has been coolly efficient in the chill. Whether the four-car organization can warm with the weather and continue its torrid assault of SpeedWeeks with a third straight win in the Daytona 500 remains to be seen.
With temperatures dipping into the 30s for portions of the week, Hendrick won a pole with four-time Sprint Cup champion Jeff Gordon, who will leave full-time competition after this year, and both 150-mile qualifying races with defending Daytona 500 winner Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Jimmie Johnson.
Temperatures are forecast to swell into a more tourist-friendly high-70s for the season-opening Sprint Cup showcase on Sunday, which will change track conditions from high-grip and high-speed to more slippery and potentially treacherous. That will alter pit strategy, particularly regarding tire wear and in theory skew everything teams have gleaned from a week of practice and preliminaries.
That's less of an unsettling prospect at Daytona International Speedway, where the co-dependent nature of restrictor-plate racing had teams eschewing practice en masse by Thursday because little was left to learn. But it's a variable. And victory is often in the variables at Daytona.
"These cold conditions will lull us into thinking our cars are driving great," Johnson said. "As things heat up, we get to Sunday, it's mid-70s and sunny, you have to be on your game and make sure you're setting your car for prime conditions. (Thursday) was prime conditions: no slipping and sliding, cold track temps. (Thursday) it was hard to get your car to handle poorly."
Joe Gibbs Racing seems best-best poised if Hendrick slips in the heat. Two-time Daytona 500-winner Matt Kenseth won the exhibition Sprint Unlimited and led a race-high 21 laps in the first Duel before being swamped in the draft and finishing 17th. Teammate Denny Hamlin will start sixth. Kyle Busch broke his right leg and left foot in an Xfinity Series crash Saturday night and is out indefinitely. Matt Crafton will replace him in his first Daytona 500 start.
"I felt like we had one of the stronger cars," Kenseth said after his qualifying race. "(Earnhardt Jr.) when he was hooked up with (Gordon) was definitely stronger than us. If I could have had a car right with me the whole time, then I think we had one of the stronger cars, but when they ganged up on me when I was leading I couldn't keep it. I think they're pretty tough."
Three ridiculously obvious picks to win
--Jeff Gordon: The three-time Daytona 500-winner insists this will be his last attempt at the race. Daytona officials could save a lot of money and shopping time on a gold watch by handing over another Harley J. Earl.
--Dale Earnhardt Jr.: The defending race-winner and two-time Daytona 500 champion generally has his pick of draft partners because of his proficiency and reputation on plate tracks. That won't change Sunday. He minced from last to a win in 60 laps to win his Duel.
--Jimmie Johnson: He's a two-time race-winner on a redemption campaign following a career-worst 11th-place points finish last year. He could take steps toward a seventh title by qualifying for the Chase in the first race.
Three that make a lot of sense
--Clint Bowyer: He's won twice at Talladega Superspeedway, the other restrictor plate track on the Sprint Cup circuit, and has finished fourth twice and sixth in nine Daytona 500 starts. He and Earnhardt Jr. have produced more restrictor plate top-5s (seven) than any other drivers over the last five years. He had to go to a backup car after Reed Sorenson attempted to block him in group qualifying. A win would provide ample excuse for more broadcast of his bizarre Instagram video. He's one of 14 drivers utilizing a backup car.
--Matt Kenseth: The 2009 and 2012 Daytona 500 winner has an average finish of 15.7 over the last 10, second-best among all drivers. He led 86 laps before an engine relegated him to a 37th-place finish last year.
--Kevin Harvick: The reigning Sprint Cup Series champion won the 2007 Daytona 500 and has five top-5 finishes in the last five years on restrictor-plate tracks.
Three who will need to see it to believe it
--Tony Stewart: The 2008 installment could have been his, as he led on the backstretch but didn't get the push he needed to the finish. He could have won in 2007, when he crashed with Kurt Busch, as they ran first and second, ruining what he felt was his best shot. And then there was 2004, where he could have made a move late but risked, he said, "wrecking the entire field to win the race."
Stewart, a three-time series champion, continues to be dogged by questions of squandered chances to win a first Daytona 500 as he enters his 18th running. He doesn't fear, however, that a win in NASCAR's greatest race will elude him as one did in the Indianapolis 500 five times. "No, not until the day that I don't run here anymore," he said. "Everybody has got a shot here, so it's just a matter of … We've been in that position. We've been in that position before, so it's not like we've never been in that position. At least that gives you confidence that you've got a shot."
--Carl Edwards: In 21 starts at Daytona, he has just four top-5s and eight top-10s, and two DNFs. He's led just 12 laps, with his best finish a second to Trevor Bayne, by .118 seconds, in 2011.
--Regan Smith: The full-time Xfinity Series driver was named to replace Kurt Busch in the No. 41 Chevrolet after the 2004 Sprint Cup champion was suspended by NASCAR after the release of written arguments in his domestic abuse proceeding in Delaware. Smith, who drives for JR Motorsports, lost a restrictor plate win in 2008 at Talladega Superspeedway when NASCAR ruled he had dipped below the yellow boundary to pass Stewart for the win.
Follow James on Twitter @brantjames
PHOTOS: History of the Daytona 500