Bing predicts Kevin Harvick will repeat as Sprint Cup Series champion
NASCAR's playoffs haven't started yet, but it might be time for the Sprint Cup trophy makers to start engraving Kevin Harvick's name again.
According to search engine Bing and its powerful Bing Predicts tool, Harvick will repeat as Sprint Cup Series champion – edging out Kyle Busch, Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski in the season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
That's just one of many forecasts made by Bing, which has set its sights on NASCAR this year after successful predictions in areas like reality TV shows, politics and the World Cup.
Walter Sun, who created Bing Predicts for Microsoft, told Paste BN Sports his team has been forecasting the top five finishers in NASCAR races with a 46% accuracy since it began in April. That's lower than some of the other sports (Bing Predicts correctly called all 15 knockout round World Cup games in 2014 and had a 73% accuracy rate for March Madness this year), but still ranks highly in a sport that is notoriously difficult to predict.
Sun said Bing uses two different models to make predictions. First, there's the statistical model – how a driver has performed at a certain track, the type of venue, whether it's a day or night race, etc.
But what makes Bing stand out is its "wisdom of the crowds" data, which comes from online chatter around the event.
"Wisdom of the crowds is the idea that no individual person knows everything, but if you average everybody's opinion, you get information that is valuable," Sun said.
Adding that wisdom increased Bing's NFL predictions accuracy by 5% last year; it has increased NASCAR accuracy by more than 3% this season.
That's crucial for sports, which are much tougher to predict than elections (Bing was over 96% accurate in the Congressional races in November) and things like Dancing With the Stars eliminations (95%).
So how will the Chase unfold? Bing Predicts says the current 16 drivers in playoff position will be the ones who make the field (sorry, Kasey Kahne and Aric Almirola); it says Jeff Gordon will make it to the second round before bowing out in his final season.
And, ultimately, Harvick will prevail.
Bing Predicts also makes weekly picks (just search for "NASCAR predictions" on the search engine); this week's top five for the Southern 500 is Harvick, Busch, Matt Kenseth, Martin Truex Jr. and Jimmie Johnson.
This season, the predictions will be integrated with NASCAR.com's "Chase Grid Battle" (NASCAR's version of the NCAA Tournament bracket). When players make their selections, they'll see Bing's predictions if they need some advice.
"Experts obviously know who you think will win, but the novices might need some help," Sun said.
With this much information available, does Sun ever think of quitting his current role to go gamble in Las Vegas?
"I don't think my employers would like me to do that," he said with a laugh. "But I love the work. I think the opportunity to help people out with different things is worth more than money itself."