Gluck: Tony Stewart's surge, Hendrick's slump among top NASCAR surprises
The second half of the Sprint Cup Series schedule begins with Sunday’s New Hampshire 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.
Here’s a look at three surprises for the first half and a prediction for what might happen in the final 18 races.
Surprise: Everything involving Tony Stewart
The year started with a shock: Stewart broke his back in a freak sand dunes accident before the season — his final one as a NASCAR Sprint Cup driver — and was forced to miss the first eight races.
His Chase for the Sprint Cup hopes looked pretty much doomed. Not only would he have to get back into the top 30 in points, but he’d have to win a race — something he hadn’t done since 2013.
A repeat of the Kyle Busch scenario from last year didn’t seem to be very likely.
But then Stewart caught a timely caution at Sonoma Raceway and beat Denny Hamlin in a last-lap duel to make himself Chase-eligible — after NASCAR granted the three-time champion a medical waiver in April. Suddenly, it seems “Smoke” will be a factor this fall — as long as he can maintain his position inside the top 30.
Strangely enough, that might not be the most eye-opening thing to happen to Stewart this season. Just before his return, he criticized NASCAR for being lax on safety when it came to policing lug nuts on pit road.
NASCAR ultimately agreed and changed its rule — but not before fining Stewart $35,000 for raising the topic in the first place.
Prediction: Stewart easily makes the top 30 and squeezes out a couple more top fives before the Chase. He enters the playoff as the lead story and advances to the second round before getting eliminated after he wrecks at Talladega Superspeedway. He leaves the Chase with an epic rant against restrictor-plate racing and is fined again.
Surprise: Hendrick's struggles
Jimmie Johnson has two wins this season and Chase Elliott is currently in the Chase on points, so you wouldn’t think there’s much to worry about there. But with Thursday night's news that Dale Earnhardt Jr. is out indefinitely with concussion-like symptoms, it's unclear how the rest of his season will unfold for Hendrick Motorsports.
The team overall has been surprisingly quiet this season, especially the last couple months. As Sirius/XM Radio’s “The Morning Drive” noted this week, Hendrick has gone consecutive races without a top-10 finish for the first time since Oct. 2011 and has failed to lead a lap in three straight races for the first time since Oct./Nov. 2001.
Elliott, Earnhardt and Kasey Kahne have all yet to win (the team had a total of six wins at this point last season). And Earnhardt and Johnson have combined for just two top-10 finishes in the last nine races.
Prediction: Come on. Do you really think this slump is going to last? With all its resources and talent, Hendrick always rallies. The team will put Elliott and Johnson into the Chase. One of them might even win this weekend at New Hampshire. The big question mark is Earnhardt.
Surprise: Rookies shine
Speaking of Elliott, he’s made sure the No. 24 team hasn’t missed a beat since Jeff Gordon’s retirement. In fact, the team is getting even better results than Gordon did at this point in his final season.
Elliott has more top-five finishes (six vs. two), more top-10s (11 vs. 10) and is higher in the point standings (eighth vs. 10th) than Gordon was halfway through last year.
In addition to Elliott’s strong runs, fellow rookie Ryan Blaney is also a Chase contender for Wood Brothers Racing (a virtual teammate to the Team Penske drivers because of the teams' technical alliance). Blaney has six top-10 finishes, which normally would be the makings of a phenomenal rookie season if not for Elliott’s presence.
Yes, Blaney and Elliott crashed into each other last week at Kentucky. That hurt their seasons a bit.
But it’s been a long time since rookies have been this strong. Get this: Not a single rookie of the year candidate from the past six years has gone on to win a Cup race; both Elliott and Blaney seem destined to break that trend.
Prediction: In our preseason picks, I said Blaney would make it to the third round of the Chase and Elliott would miss the playoff altogether. If it’s possible to flip those now, that seems like the right call. Blaney is still running well, but he’s lost ground recently in the standings and it might be tough to make up without a win. Elliott, meanwhile, is a darkhorse contender to win the whole thing.
Follow Gluck on Twitter @jeff_gluck