Chase fast forward: Final title spots up for grabs in desert
Two spots remain for NASCAR’s championship race at Homestead-Miami Speedway, and they’ll be determined Sunday in the desert.
It’s the closest battle yet in the three-year history of the Chase for the Sprint Cup elimination-style format, with the final two positions currently occupied by Joey Logano and Kyle Busch (who are tied) and Matt Kenseth (-1 point) and Denny Hamlin (-2) close behind.
And with Kevin Harvick needing a win at Phoenix International Raceway, where he is a proven master, there could be one fewer spot available on points.
So, who’s it going to be? Here’s a look at what to watch at Phoenix:
Harvick, Harvick, Harvick
The Stewart-Haas Racing driver has won six of the past eight Phoenix races and eight overall. He’s been particularly dominant since the track was reconfigured in 2011; in addition to the six wins, he also has two runner-up finishes during that time.
Pulling a Newman
In 2014, Ryan Newman knocked Kyle Larson into the wall on the last lap because he needed one more point to qualify for the championship race over Jeff Gordon. With such a tight points battle, could that happen again this year? It certainly seems possible, especially on a 1-mile flat oval where contact is more common.
JGR’s musical chairs
Carl Edwards’ rain-shortened win at Texas Motor Speedway put him into the final four, becoming the first Joe Gibbs Racing driver to make it. But what will happen to his three teammates? At least one will be left out for sure, thanks to Jimmie Johnson’s win at Martinsville Speedway. It’s possible all three could miss the cut, though. All it would take is a Harvick win and a solid run by Logano to get what would become the last spot.
Advantage, Hamlin?
Of the drivers who are most likely to race their way in on points — Logano, Busch, Kenseth and Hamlin — it’s Hamlin who has the best average finish at Phoenix since the repave (10.4). Logano’s average finish during that stretch is 12.2, Busch is 14.0 and Kenseth is 14.3.
Don’t forget Kurt
And then there’s Kurt Busch. Two miserable races to start Round 3 have put the elder Busch brother 34 points behind the cutoff, meaning he will have to win at Phoenix to advance. But Busch has four straight top-10 finishes there and has access to the same equipment and information as Harvick, which means he could potentially pull off a major comeback.
Follow Gluck on Twitter @jeff_gluck