NASCAR: Who has the edge in playoff elimination race at Kansas?
Sunday is cutdown day in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series as the 12-driver playoff field will be reduced to eight following the Hollywood Casino 400.
Only two drivers — Martin Truex Jr. and Brad Keselowski — can rest easy this weekend with their berths in the third round already secured after victories at Charlotte Motor Speedway and Talladega Superspeedway, respectively.
The weekend won't be quite so chill for the other 10 drivers — even ones like third-ranked Kyle Larson, who have built up a plethora of points — because one crash or mechanical issue can see championship hopes go up in smoke.
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Expect the the 267 scheduled laps around the 1.5-mile Kansas Speedway to be a fierce contest of wills, handling and strategy calls, as drivers battle their competitors on track as well as their nerves.
How the playoff drivers have fared at Kansas, and what to watch for Sunday (3 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Network):
1. Martin Truex Jr. (3,120 points)
Car: No. 78 Toyota
Team: Furniture Row Racing
Best Kansas finish: First (spring 2017)
Notable: The points leader has dominated on tracks like Kansas this season, with five of his six wins coming on 1.5-mile ovals. Expect him to be near the front of the pack all day, like he was in May when he led 104 laps.
2. Brad Keselowski (3,101)
Car: No. 2 Ford
Team: Team Penske
Best Kansas finish: First (spring 2011)
Notable: His brilliant race and last-lap pass for the win last weekend provided a shot in the arm to a driver that before Talladega hadn't won since April. Now the 2012 champion and crew chief Paul Wolfe have the opportunity to take chances that other playoff drivers cannot in an effort to rack up playoff bonus points before the round of eight.
3. Kyle Larson (3,096)
Car: No. 42 Chevrolet
Team: Chip Ganassi Racing
Best Kansas finish: Second (fall 2014)
Notable: Larson is in the most enviable position among the rest of the playoff field, sitting 22 points above the cutline. And while none of four 2017 wins have come on 1.5-mile tracks, he's finished second on intermediate ovals four times. A clean and consistent race is likely all he needs.
4. Kevin Harvick (3,089)
Car: No. 4 Ford
Team: Stewart-Haas Racing
Best Kansas finish: First (fall 2013, 2016)
Notable: Harvick said this week that Kansas "fits his driving style," and recent results bear him out. Since the track was repaved in the summer of 2012, the 2014 series champion has been a master at the Kansas City oval with six top-three finishes in 10 races, including the victory in last year's playoff.
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5. Denny Hamlin (3,088)
Car: No. 11 Toyota
Team: Joe Gibbs Racing
Best Kansas finish: First (spring 2012)
Notable: His top-six finishes at Charlotte and Talladega could go a long way in providing insurance because Kansas has not been one of Hamlin's stronger tracks, with an average finish of 17.0. But Hamlin finished second in this race two years ago, and the Toyota contingent has been especially strong on intermediate tracks, which could give him a boost.
6. Chase Elliott (3,087)
Car: No. 24 Chevrolet
Team: Hendrick Motorsports
Best Kansas finish: Ninth ( 2016)
Notable: He's the least experienced driver at Kansas with only three races under his belt, but his runner-up finishes in the playoff races at Chicagoland Speedway and Charlotte prove that he can contend for the win on 1.5-mile ovals. He'll have to run much better than his 29th-place finish in May, however.
7. Ryan Blaney (3,076)
Car: No. 21 Ford
Team: Wood Brothers Racing
Best Kansas finish: Fourth (spring 2017)
Notable: Blaney may have circled this race on his calendar because statistically Kansas stacks up as one of his best tracks. He has three top-seven finishes in five races and an average finish of 11.4, ranking as his third-best. He has no margin for error, though, so he'll need to come through like he did in May to keep himself among the top eight.
8. Jimmie Johnson (3,074)
Car: No. 48 Chevrolet
Team: Hendrick Motorsports
Best Kansas finish: First (fall 2008, 2011; spring 2015)
Notable: The seven-time and reigning series champion is right on the brink and can't afford the sub-par 24th-place finish he turned in this spring. Fans of the 48 team can take comfort in Johnson's strong career results at Kansas, however. He's finished in the top 10 in 17 of 22 races there and came home third and fourth, respectively, in the last two playoff races at the track.
9. Kyle Busch (3,067)
Car: No. 18 Toyota
Team: Joe Gibbs Racing
Best Kansas finish: First (spring 2016)
Notable: After a dominating first round in which he won two of three races, no one's fortunes have turned more after Busch's disastrous results at both Charlotte and Talladega. He may not technically be in must-win territory, but expect him to race like he is. The 2015 series champion has become quite proficient at Kansas lately with five straight top-five finishes, and he'll need another sterling result to advance.
10. Matt Kenseth (3,066)
Car: No. 20 Toyota
Team: Joe Gibbs Racing
Best Kansas finish: First (fall 2012, spring 2013)
Notable: No playoff driver has more experience or has led more laps at Kansas than Kenseth's 774, and he's going to need every bit of that quality experience Sunday if he hopes to advance in what could be his last season in the Cup Series. Like his teammate Busch, he may not necessarily have to win to advance, but he cannot rely on points either. He will need to be aggressive and hope Toyota's advantage on intermediate tracks holds up.
11. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (3,052)
Car: No. 17 Ford
Team: Roush Fenway Racing
Best Kansas finish: 11th (spring 2008, 2017)
Notable: Talladega, where he won earlier this season, likely was Stenhouse's best opportunity for a playoff win, so Kansas appears to be the end of the road. His car has not been particularly fast or competitive on 1.5-mile tracks, and it's hard to imagine that changes Sunday.
12. Jamie McMurray (3,045)
Car: No. 1 Chevrolet
Team: Chip Ganassi Racing
Best Kansas finish: Seventh (fall 2004, spring 2013)
Notable: Disaster struck McMurray early at Talladega and put him in a hole he probably cannot get out of. Like Stenhouse, he almost certainly needs to win — something he hasn't done in four years.
Follow Horrow on Twitter @EllenJHorrow
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