NASCAR playoffs: Who has the edge in the AAA Texas 500?
With one final four berth locked up, the other seven Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series playoff drivers will look to secure a win in Sunday at Texas Motor Speedway and punch a ticket to the championship race at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Kyle Busch, the 2015 series champion, prevailed after a chaotic ending last weekend at Martinsville Speedway to grab the first slot in the championship race. Meanwhile, this season's best driver, Martin Truex Jr., has a healthy 67-point lead over the four-driver cutoff line and appears to be in a comfortable position to advance to the final four even without a win.
TEXAS: Will things get chippy after fireworks at Martinsville?
ELLIOTT: 'Don't go there' to ask about possible Hamlin payback
JOHNSON: NASCAR's 'regular guy' chasing championship record
QUALIFYING: Kurt Busch sets qualifying record to win Texas pole
TROUBLE: Elliott to start near back after failing to make qualifying run
Any playoff driver who wins Sunday at Texas or next weekend at Phoenix Raceway will automatically be eligible to race for the championship on Nov. 19 alongside Busch. If a non-playoff driver or Busch wins at both Texas and Phoenix, the remaining berths will be allocated on points.
Here's a look at the eight remaining playoff drivers, their past success at Texas and their outlook for Sunday's AAA Texas 500 (2 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Network):
1. Martin Truex Jr.
Points: 4,117
Car: No. 78 Toyota
Team: Furniture Row Racing
2017 Wins: 7; Top fives: 16
Best Texas finish: Second (spring 2013)
Outlook: Truex nearly pulled off his first career win at Martinsville last weekend and will try to do the same at Texas. One-and-a-half mile tracks have been his strength all year, so he will likely be among the leaders all day. But Truex doesn't need to win. If he avoids calamity at Texas and Phoenix, Truex will almost assuredly advance to the final four on points.
2. Kyle Busch
Points: 4,100
Car: No. 18 Toyota
Team: Joe Gibbs Racing
2017 Wins: 5; Top fives: 13
Best Texas finish: First (spring 2013 and 2016)
Outlook: In even better shape than Truex thanks to his victory at Martinsville. Still, expect Busch to be aggressive and try to prevent another playoff driver from securing a final four berth this weekend. With seven top fives in the past nine races at Texas, he will be in the hunt for the win.
3. Brad Keselowski
Points: 4,079
Car: No. 2 Ford
Team: Team Penske
2017 Wins: 3; Top fives: 14
Best Texas finish: Second (fall 2012 and 2015)
Outlook: If not for a questionable decision on a late restart at Martinsville and an even more questionable one by the crew chief of teammate Joey Logano, Keselowski may have been the first final four driver. The 2012 series champion hasn't seen the speed or results he's accustomed to on 1½-milers this year, but he did finish sixth at Texas in April and led 312 laps two years ago.
4. Kevin Harvick
Points: 4,053
Car: No. 4 Ford
Team: Stewart-Haas Racing
2017 Wins: 1; Top fives: 11
Best Texas finish: Second (fall 2014; spring 2015)
Outlook: The 2014 champion has mostly been flying under the radar in the playoffs. But he's done enough to keep advancing, despite his only win of the season coming on the road course at Sonoma. Harvick's best track is coming up next weekend at Phoenix (8 wins), but he's run well at Texas recently — with sixth consecutive top 10s — and could battle for the win Sunday.
5. Jimmie Johnson
Points: 4,050
Car: No. 48 Chevrolet
Team: Hendrick Motorsports
2017 Wins: 3; Top fives: 4
Best Texas finish: First (fall 2007; fall 2012; fall 2013; fall 2014; spring and fall 2015; spring 2017)
Outlook: Another week, another track where the seven-time series champion dominates. Johnson finished an underwhelming 12th at Martinsville (where he has nine career wins), and he can't afford to have a similar result Sunday on another one of his best tracks. He seems to have a knack for winning this fall race at Texas, though, even when he's not the dominant car.
6. Ryan Blaney
Points: 4,047
Car: No. 21 Ford
Team: Wood Brothers Racing
2017 Wins: 1; Top fives: 4
Best Texas finish: 12th (fall 2016; spring 2017)
Outlook: Blaney has only competed in five career races at Texas and the first two were disasters — finishing second-to-last and last, respectively, in both 2015 races. His results have improved since then, but he will certainly need to do better than his career best to avoid a must-win scenario at Phoenix.
7. Denny Hamlin
Points: 4,045
Car: No. 11 Toyota
Team: Joe Gibbs Racing
2017 Wins: 2; Top fives: 14
Best Texas finish: First (spring and fall 2010)
Outlook: Hamlin was super aggressive in the closing laps at Martinsville — some would argue it went beyond aggression when he made contact with Chase Elliott— in an effort to secure the win, but he couldn't nail it down. Now he heads to a track where he's struggled — with a best finish of seventh — since sweeping both races in 2010. It may explain his win-at-all-costs mentaility last weekend.
8. Chase Elliott
Points: 4,027
Car: No. 24 Chevrolet
Team: Hendrick Motorsports
2017 Wins: 0; Top fives: 10
Best Texas finish: Fourth (fall 2016)
Outlook: Elliott was on the verge of his first career win and a berth in the final four last Sunday until contact by Hamlin — which resulted in a spin and a post-race confrontation — completely changed his playoff trajectory. The good news for Elliott is that he has three top 10s in three career races at Texas. The bad news is that a top-10 finish probably won't be enough to avoid a must-win situation at Phoenix.
Follow Horrow on Twitter @EllenJHorrrow