James: Dover offers comfort for some, risk for others in Chase elimination
DOVER, Del. — With one race left to dispense of in the first round of the Chase for the Sprint Cup, Martin Truex Jr. and Brad Keselowski can be forgiven a glance forward.
Truex is guaranteed a transfer spot after winning the playoff opener at Chicagoland Speedway. Keselowski, the points leader with four race victories this season, needs to finish only 29th at Dover International Speedway Sunday to proceed. And there is much to anticipate thereafter.
“I look forward to it a lot,” Truex said of the second round. “I think that really is our game plan, is just to play off of that confidence that we have and know that we can go to these race tracks coming up and run strong.”
And why not, entering Charlotte next week, followed by Kansas and Talladega?
Truex led 392 of 400 laps to win the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway in May. Kyle Busch, who also has four wins in 2016, won at Kansas Speedway, in a race Truex paced for 172 of 267 laps but finished 14th because of a balky late pit stop. Keselowski won at Talladega Superspeedway.
“Everybody’s going to step it up so we need to do the same,” Truex said. “We had a great run at Charlotte, obviously, earlier in the season and look forward to working off of that baseline to hopefully find some things to be even better this time around, and, the same with Kansas.
“I think those are two great tracks for us, but that doesn’t guarantee anything, so we’ve got to make sure Talladega we’re ready to go and we do all the right things.”
Truex has been able to approach his home race — he grew up in neaby Mayetta, N.J. — and site of his first Cup win in 2007 with less pressure knowing he would advance in the playoffs — with New Hampshire winner Kevin Harvick — no matter his result on Sunday. But that luxury ends next week, no matter his history at Charlotte.
“I think there’s a lot of potential in the Chase to have one bad race,” he said, “no matter how good you ran or no matter how good of a season you’ve had, we’ve seen in the past that something out of your control can take you out of the opportunity to win a championship. So, for us, it’s just one more weekend where we don’t have to worry about that stuff happening.”
It’s much the same for Keselowski, who dissects the Chase into “brackets” and considers the ensuing one of great potential for his Team Penske outfit. The 2012 champion finished fifth at Charlotte and was 10th at Kansas.
“Kansas, we weren’t all that good there last year, but this spring we came a little bit different and saw a major improvement,” Keselowski said. “Charlotte, we’ve been kind of a perennial fifth-place team there, and I think at we can have a smooth run there, a consistent run.
“And at Talladega, that’s been an awesome track for us. I’m almost nervous about how good that track has been to us because it’s kind of like the luck bank and I’ve made a lot of withdrawals. No, but I feel they’re really good tracks for us.”
Keswloski has four career victories at Talladega, including the most recent race in May, but he still has some work to do before making it there.
Granted, only a disaster situation would derail his championship contention, but 2015 provided an apt example of the volatility of Chases races, as 10-time Dover winner Jimmie Johnson fell from seemingly comfortable positioning to elimination after sustaining a rear axle seal failure that sent him to a 41st-place finish, and out of the Chase despite a 27-point cushion he brought to Dover. Keselowski does not expect the current 12-driver transfer group to change, he said. That said, an “extraordinary risk” on Sunday would not be prudent for anyone among them.
“I don’t want to lose 30 some points and fall out when I can just run fifth or 10th,” Keselowksi said. “I still want to win. You know, there’s a balance there, but that manifests itself in all kinds of different ways, whether it’s all this talk on the [Laser Inspection Station violations], whether it’s pit strategy, moves you might make in traffic. All those things kind of manifest themselves with that culture and mentality to where I think it shows up on the race track.”
At 12th in points, just five points ahead of Jamie McMurray and Austin Dillon, Kyle Larson figures to be heavily impacted by outside factors. McMurray’s fourth-place finish at Dover last fall — he still fell from from 11th to outside the boundary when Harvick won and Dale Earnhardt Jr. finished third — figures to make him a threat to his Chip Ganassi Racing teammate. But Larson’s performance at Dover continues to temper that possibility. Larson vied for what would have been his first Cup win against eventual victor Matt Kenseth at Dover this spring but finished second, giving him four top-10s in five starts at the 1-mile concrete oval.
If Larson, who won at Michigan International Speedway in August, manages that, he can look forward to the next bracket also.
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