Will Chase cutoff race yield surprise winner?
RICHMOND, Va. -- Ryan Newman’s mid-week penalty for a failed post-race inspection at Darlington Raceway deflated some of the hype heading into Saturday night’s regular-season finale at Richmond International Raceway.
Newman was just seven points – or seven positions on the track – behind Jamie McMurray for the final Chase for the Sprint Cup playoff spot. Now he’s 22 points out, which makes it much less likely he’ll pass McMurray and advance into the 16-driver field.
But the beauty of the current Chase format is there are more story lines than just the points battle Saturday. For example: The win-to-get-in option represents the chance for NASCAR’s version of a Hail Mary; there’s a possibility a driver no one saw coming could make the playoff with a last-gasp shocker.
It doesn’t get talked about as much – because it doesn’t occur often – but that doesn’t mean a longshot victory can’t happen in the Federated Auto Parts 400 (7:30 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Network).
“I think it’s absolutely possible,” Landon Cassill, who is 29th in the standings, told Paste BN Sports.
Cassill is certain of that because he’s seen it happen on his own team. Last month, Cassill’s Front Row Motorsports teammate Chris Buescher pulled off a stunning win at Pocono Raceway with a strategy gamble that paid off when the race was shortened by fog – and Buescher’s No. 34 car was in front.
Now Buescher is in position to make the Chase thanks to that win – as long as he stays ahead of David Ragan for a top-30 spot (he’s currently up by 11 points).
“It’s been motivating to see that reality around our own shop,” Cassill said. “It was a good shot-in-the-arm reminder that a win is possible. We can make it happen somehow, whether it’s a Pocono or a fuel-mileage race or a rain-shortened race. Those wins count.”
How would it go down? First, let’s acknowledge a lot of luck and strategy would need to come into play. And that’s tricky in itself.
A driver likely can’t simply stay out on old tires at Richmond and hope to win, even in an overtime scenario. Fuel mileage races aren’t very common at a short track. And poor weather isn’t in the forecast.
But let’s say a team stayed out on old tires a couple times and caught timely cautions -- or did something else to gain valuable track position. Then the door could open a crack, which can lead to anything happening in the unpredictable world of NASCAR.
“We’re not going to be able to go out and lead laps and win the old-fashioned way,” David Ragan told Paste BN Sports. “We’re going to have to have things fall our way, but we can win.
“If you find yourself on the lead lap in the closing laps, there’s a lot of possibilities that can happen. It’s happened before and it’ll happen again. I don’t know if it’ll happen this week in Richmond, but you can go back through the history of NASCAR and there are always some surprise winners.”
Who could that be? Well, anyone who has yet to win this season would be a surprise.
That could include former Richmond winners Newman or Kasey Kahne. It could be exciting rookie Ryan Blaney or perhaps Aric Almirola, who finished fourth in last year’s Richmond cutoff race with what Cassill called a “heroic drive.”
Then there are drivers like Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Greg Biffle, Trevor Bayne and AJ Allmendinger – to name a few – who are all desperate to win.
The odds decrease further down in the standings, but that doesn’t mean it can’t happen. Despite being 31st in the standings, even Ragan could get in if he wins and then finishes far enough ahead of Buescher – who drives his old car.
“It’s off everybody’s radar, but there are a bunch of cars capable of winning in the right situation,” Ragan said. “As a driver, I try to preach this to my team and my crew: Every week, we have to do all we can because things may fall our way – and we’ve got to be ready to take that opportunity when it’s in front of us.”
Will the opportunity present itself to an underdog team this weekend? That might depend on how well the favorites execute.
Heading into Richmond, it’s expected the Joe Gibbs Racing cars could be dominant like they were in the April race. Carl Edwards and Kyle Busch combined to lead 229 of the 400 laps in a 1-2 finish and their teammates also finished in the top seven.
“The Gibbs cars are ridiculously good, so they’re going to be hard to beat,” Cassill said. “But if they don’t show that dominance right off the truck on Friday, and it looks more like an open race through happy hour (final practice), I would be surprised if somebody new doesn’t win.”
Follow Gluck on Twitter @jeff_gluck