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There is nothing inevitable about a potential Thunder dynasty

Robert Zeglinski   For The Win

I've gotta be honest. I'm tired of how everyone breaks out the anointing "dynasty" oils for every new NBA champion these days.

It feels like with every most recent league champion, people want to jump into these talks right away. It happened with the Milwaukee Bucks, Denver Nuggets, and Boston Celtics. And, more understandably than their peers, it's already happening with the precocious Oklahoma City Thunder.

But, for more reasons than one, that's not how the modern NBA works. I'm open to being wrong, but we will never see something absurd like the Chicago Bulls winning six championships in eight years again. I don't know how anyone can say with any confidence that, for as good and young as the Thunder are, they are about to rattle off a string of titles when we've had seven champions in the last seven years. Dearest readers, this is the first time in NBA history that we've ever had a streak of new champions that was this long.

At a certain point, a small sample size becomes a larger trend we can't ignore. This is the kind of unpredictable year-to-year league the NBA wants, and I'm unsure it'll ever be reversed. Fully anyway.

I get the arguments for saying the Thunder are on the brink of something extended and special. That the first title where you break through is usually the hardest. That this formerly inexperienced team might be the worst it'll ever be on this specific title run. That general manager, Sam Presti, has amassed such an unfathomable war chest of assets to the point that the Thunder can reload and retool as they please. You know, the moment Oklahoma City takes a possible step back in the coming years.

I understand all of this, so I don't want to say it's impossible.

That's why we have to entertain the realistic possibility that the brightest timeline might not happen for the Thunder, either.

As healthy as the Thunder's impeccable organizational culture is, everyone is still human inside that building, last I checked. They are not immune to the fateful "disease of more," a.k.a. individual people wanting more money, more credit, and more responsibility after achieving the ultimate team success. Winning an NBA title takes the ultimate sacrifice from everyone. It means everyone unconditionally accepts their roles. The moment that dynamic starts to shift is the moment a champion becomes exceedingly vulnerable. It happens to almost everyone.

Given how young they are, the Thunder don't necessarily have to worry about this yet. After all, from a financial perspective alone, the only person on the roster overdue for a monster contract extension is reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. But they will have to cross this bridge sooner rather than later.

There's also the immediate motivational purview of operating as the NBA champion in a full season, which the Thunder still have to experience. The moment you reach the summit, you put a well-earned target on your back. Everyone in the league wants a piece of you every single night. You are the de facto measuring stick. Even beating you once on a random, otherwise meaningless evening in December can make an otherwise mediocre team's entire season. You aren't catching everyone off guard the way you might have used to. You aren't outworking everyone by default anymore.

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When this happens, it's easy to get complacent. It's easy to lose track of the small but critical details that pushed you over the top the first time. It's easy to have just a tad less hunger to go all the way once you've already finished the marathon. To say nothing of the fatigue and what it means to have 100-plus games on your legs while your elite competition, who are much fresher, load up to beat you.

In this case, are you going to push it as hard, knowing how much of a championship season is an extended grind, and how much you need in the tank?

I won't lie. The Thunder feel like a team that can overcome these all-too-common pitfalls that have upended many "dynasties" before they even started. All I'm asking is that everyone take a deep breath and let things play out before giving the seemingly insurmountable Thunder a few more jewels on their crown.

If I've learned anything about the modern NBA, it's to expect the unexpected.

Tyrese Haliburton's injury puts the East in flux

I still can't believe what happened to Tyrese Haliburton during Sunday's Game 7. Given the context, I think seeing one of the NBA's brightest and most fun young stars screaming "no" in pain while lying on the floor in the middle of a championship game is the most heartbreaking sports sequence I've witnessed in my life. He clearly knew he tore his Achilles right away. Seeing that will haunt me for a long time.

As our Prince Grimes writes, it's probably going to haunt the Pacers, too:

"That's part of why [Tyrese] Haliburton's injury is so devastating. Not only did it take away Indiana's best chance to compete in Game 7, thus threatening to diminish the credit OKC deserves for winning a title, it also potentially hurts Indiana's chances to return to this stage next year. And let's be clear, after making two straight conference finals appearances and pushing the best team in the NBA to a Game 7 in the finals, the Pacers were on track for a special run of their own."

Regardless of whether the Pacers would've won if Haliburton had stayed healthy, it did feel like they were about to assert their dominance in the East for the foreseeable future. The Celtics are in flux without Jayson Tatum. The Bucks still don't know what's up with Giannis Antetokounmpo. The New York Knicks are a threat, but well, they're also the Knicks. With Haliburton entering his prime, the Pacers were in a position to have an iron grip on the East for a long time.

Now he's out for all of next season. And all of that is a fantasy until further notice.

Who steps up to fill the East's power vacuum? Maybe it's the Orlando Magic with Desmond Bane. Maybe a productive offseason for the young Detroit Pistons takes them to a new level. This is a deeper conversation for another day.

For now, it's hard not to shake the feeling that we lost out on something extraordinary with these Pacers.

Shootaround

This was Layup Lines, For the Win's basketball newsletter. Subscribe here to get it delivered to your inbox every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday.

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