Three reasons to believe (and doubt) that the Milwaukee Bucks can repeat as NBA champions
The Milwaukee Bucks remain in their championship “window” – which was opened in 2018-19 when they made their first run to an Eastern Conference Finals in nearly two decades. Of course, they claimed the second title in franchise history last season and they believe they have an excellent chance to defend that crown after an 82-game regular season.
Here are three reasons to believe, and three reasons to doubt, that can happen.
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REASONS TO BELIEVE
Giannis is hitting his prime
It seems ridiculous to think that a two-time league Most Valuable Player, a Defensive Player of the Year and NBA Finals MVP still has a chance to improve, but it’s true. He turns 27 in December and it isn’t a stretch to say he’s hitting that sweet spot of experience (ninth season) plus his physical peak. While he may yet feel the after effects of his serious knee injury suffered in late June, his offensive game is becoming more well-rounded and he can do whatever is asked defensively. It’s not a stretch to think he could claim more of those individual awards after this season.
Jrue Holiday plays a full year
It’s almost easy to forget Holiday missed 10 regular-season games to COVID-19 last season, and he admitted he felt the effects of the virus afterward. After adjusting to a new team, a new role and a new offense, he had just hit his stride at that point, too. In late January and early February, he was averaging 18.8 points, 5.7 assists and rebounds, 2.0 steals and shooting 57.5% from the floor in the six games prior to going into the health and safety protocol. It took him maybe a month to look like he was back. This season he’s coming with an immediate comfort level, and it’s not a stretch to think he turns in an All-Star and Defensive Player of the Year level season.
They’ve done it before
A coaching staff and team may feel they have a championship mentality, but until that trophy is hoisted at the end of the season you don’t really know that you found the ingredients to the secret sauce. Last year’s title was the first for all of the principle players on the team, and they know exactly what they did to get there. It’s up to the coaching staff to mix in the hunger of the new additions while emphasizing the best points of last year while keeping it fresh for the returnees, but Budenholzer has seen that handled before in his years in San Antonio. While this team may say “the past is in the past,” they now have a well to draw from that only a few other teams can.
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REASONS TO DOUBT
The offseason was too short
Granted, every NBA team can claim a lack of rest to a degree but the Bucks will be pushing their physical limits. Donte DiVincenzo had his ankle surgically repaired in early June. Giannis Antetokounmpo severely injured his knee in late June and didn’t resume five-on-five practices with the team until October. Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday had an even shorter reprieve after helping the U.S. Olympic team win the gold medal. Camp opened with Bobby Portis, Semi Ojeleye and Rodney Hood all suffering injuries. They have to play their first linear 82-game regular season in three years after back-to-back shortened summers. It wouldn’t be a stretch to think the cumulative effect of the past two seasons is a detriment to this title defense.
History is against them
Parity in the NBA is a lie – the best handful of teams usually get to the Finals and get there often. In this century alone, the Los Angeles Lakers (2001-02, 2008-10), New Jersey Nets (2002-03), Detroit Pistons (2004-05), Miami Heat (2011-14), San Antonio Spurs (2013-14), Golden State Warriors (2015-19) and Cleveland Cavaliers (2015-18) have all made repeat trips. But what is working against the Bucks is that they’ve already won one. The Lakers (2001-02 and 2009-10), Heat (2012-13) and Warriors (2017-18) were the only ones to pull off repeat titles. It’s very hard to do.
The East is a beast
Kyrie Irving may or may not play for Brooklyn, but James Harden and Kevin Durant are still pretty good at their jobs. Philadelphia’s Joel Embiid was the top Eastern Conference vote-getter in the MVP race last year. The average age of the Atlanta Hawks’ top seven players from a year ago was less than 24 years old. It may be fair to wonder what Kyle Lowry and P.J. Tucker will have left after 82 games in Miami, but it would be foolish to think a team coached by Erik Spoelstra and led by Jimmy Butler isn’t going to be a headache. There’s a new head coach in Boston and a new roster (basically) in Chicago.
Make no mistake, the Bucks are a favorite to win the East and return to the Finals. But it would also be foolish to believe that the top half of the conference isn’t strong enough to knock out the Bucks before they face anyone from the West.
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