When will LeBron James surpass other legends, become greatest scorer of all-time?
With his 44-point outburst Wednesday night, LeBron James continued to cement himself as one of the greatest scorers in NBA history, passing Wilt Chamberlain to move into fifth place on the all-time scoring list.
Now the question isn't whether he'll pass Michael Jordan, who sits at No. 4 overall — but when.
In the wake of James' achievement Wednesday night, Paste BN Sports set out to crunch the numbers and try to predict when the Los Angeles Lakers forward might pass Jordan — and the three other men ahead of him — on the all-time scoring charts.
While this is an inexact science, James does have 15 seasons' worth of evidence upon which to draw. These predictions are largely based on his career averages. He's averaged about .701623 points per minute over the course of his career so far, for example, and about 38.7 minutes per game. That works out to about 2,069 points per season when factoring in he's played an average of 76.2 games per season so far. James has averaged 27.2 points per game in his career.
Injuries and rest are the most difficult things to predict, of course. James is approaching his 34th birthday and could miss more games — or play fewer minutes per game — as he continues to age. The following predictions do not account for any such decrease and assume that his games and minutes played will largely mirror his career averages.
Pass Michael Jordan, move into 4th
Needed to pass: 868 points
How long will it take? 32 games
Prediction: Jan. 19, 2019 at the Houston Rockets
James will almost certainly pass Jordan at some point in January, though its difficult to pick the specific game. This prediction (Jan. 19) assumes he will maintain his current averages and miss one game for injury or rest between now and then. But watch out: If James is slightly ahead of schedule, and stays healthy, he could very well pass Jordan six days earlier against the Cavaliers at Staples Center.
Pass Kobe Bryant, move into 3rd
Needed to pass: 2,219 points
How long would it take? 82 games
Prediction: Late November 2019
James passing Bryant on the all-time scoring list is also a relatively safe bet. Barring any injuries or setbacks, this milestone would likely come a little more than a year from now, in late November or early December of 2019.
Pass Karl Malone, move into 2nd
Needed to pass: 5,504 points
How long would it take? 203 games
Prediction: Late March 2021
Malone had played 19 seasons in the NBA when he finally retired in 2005, and James has a chance to surpass "The Mailman" in his 18th season. At this point, James would be 36 years old and near the end of his third season in Los Angeles — the last guaranteed year in his contract. (He has a player option for 2021-22.)
Pass Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, move into 1st
Needed to pass: 6,963 points
How long would it take? 256 games
Prediction: Late December 2022; 38th birthday gift?
What would it take for James to become the greatest scorer of all-time? Well, for starters, he would probably have to play until his 38th birthday — a little more than four more years from now, and nearly two decades after he made his NBA debut. He would also have to sign another contract, as his deal with the Lakers will expire during the preceding offseason. But if James can stay healthy, and remain effective, it's entirely possible that he could break Abdul-Jabbar's record midway through the 2022-23 season — perhaps right around his 38th birthday.
Contact Tom Schad at tschad@usatoday.com or on Twitter @Tom_Schad.