Breaking down free agents from the 2015 NBA playoffs
Here's a look at 20 free agents whose teams either were or still are in the playoffs this season. Let the free-agency mind-reading and dot-connecting continue.
LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers (player option)
Rest easy, Cavs fans, LeBron is a free agent this summer in theory alone. Because the league's salary cap is rising at historic levels — from approximately $63 million this season to $68 million in 2015-16 and an astounding projection of $108 million by the time 2017-18 rolls around — the always-savvy James structured his current deal in a way that would allow him to maximize his personal profits at this time when the NBA business is booming.
If he opts out this summer as so many expect, he could sign another one-plus-one deal – one year guaranteed with a player option in the second season — that would allow him to keep playing the waiting game on a long-term deal until the league's nine-year $24 billion television deal with ESPN and TNT kicks in for the 20117-18 campaign. James has never been the highest paid player in the league, but that counterintuitive streak is nearing an end.
Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies, LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland Trail Blazers, and DeAndre Jordan, Los Angeles Clippers (unrestricted)
Sam Amick breaks down the potential free agency of the three big men with his analysis, with all looking to at least test the waters.
Kevin Love, Cleveland Cavaliers (player option)
The gap between what Kevin Love has said and what so many folks around the league predict Kevin Love will do has been significant for quite some time. So while he may have told the Northeast Ohio Media Group back in mid-January that he was not going to opt out of his contract this summer, it wasn't hard to find people who believed he was eager to leave Cleveland after just one season. Especially now that the shoulder injury suffered against Boston in the first round short-circuited his postseason.
Our Jeff Zillgitt analyzed Love's situation here recently.
Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs (restricted)
Much has transpired since the Spurs took a calculated risk by not extending Leonard last summer: as if his NBA Finals MVP award last June wasn't proof enough that he was well on his way to a max contract, he won the league's Defensive Player of the Year award this season and is now generally regarded as one of the best two-way players in the game.
The Spurs, predictably, are more than smart enough to know they can't let this 23-year-old get away. As such, Leonard will likely agree to stay in San Antonio for the long-term quickly once July 1 rolls around (a five-year, $95 million deal would be the expected max). The question from there, of course, is whether or not San Antonio can convince another young star to come join him.
The dream scenarios would include either Aldridge or Gasol heading for the Alamo City, but keep your eyes on Jordan as a sleeper candidate. His athleticism and defensive prowess would work well on a Spurs team that was already the league's third-best defensive team this season, and he would work extremely well with Tim Duncan if — as Spurs coach Gregg Popovich predicted in an interview with Paste BN Sports back in early February — he decides to return for another season.
Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs (unrestricted)
Want to get inside the mind of the Big Fundamental as we try and predict whether or not he'll retire this summer? Then remember Popovich's premise that he shared in the aforementioned interview: if Duncan still looks like Duncan, then he'll be back.
News flash: Duncan still looks like Duncan.
Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors (restricted)
Memo to Detroit Pistons fans who were holding out hope that Green may be coming home this summer: Golden State isn't letting him get away. That's the latest word from the Warriors, where their third-year forward has become such an integral part of their high-end operation.
Green, the Saginaw, Mich. native and former Michigan State player who averaged 11.7 points, 8.2 rebounds 1.6 steals and 1.3 blocks per game this season, will be commanding maximum-salary money that owner Joe Lacob and his group appear willing to pay.
Green has gone from being a glue guy last season to an unexpected member of their Big Three with Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson — the third "Splash Brother," as some have deemed him. Green's gritty play, long-range abilities and the defensive prowess that earned him a second-place finish in the Defensive Player of the Year voting are invaluable to coach Steve Kerr and his crew (he was also second in Most Improved Player voting).
Paul Millsap, Atlanta Hawks (unrestricted)
After seven seasons in Utah, the 30-year forward who came to Atlanta on a two-year, $19 million deal in the summer of 2013 has been a fantastic fit. His only two All-Star appearances came in a Hawks jersey, and he was a major part of this current group that won a franchise-record 60 games this season. Considering most of the Hawks' roster is returning, it's hard to imagine him wanting to leave this kind of successful situation. Atlanta small forward DeMarre Carroll will an unrestricted free agent, while big man Pero Antic will be a restricted free agent.
The Hawks offered Millsap a four-year deal two years ago, and he wanted a two-year deal. He believed two strong seasons in Atlanta could earn him one last big four-year deal, and it looks like the gamble paid off. Only question is, will the Hawks keep him and that solid nucleus intact or is Millsap gone? Millsap likes his situation in Atlanta, and the Hawks have the inside track to retain him.
Brook Lopez, Brooklyn Nets (player option)
Nets general manager Billy King has made it clear that he wants to his starting center around, telling reporters, "When you've got a guy that can average 20 and is rebounding the basketball and getting double-doubles, there's not a lot of guys that can do that."The 27-year-old finished the season strong under first-year coach Lionel Hollins, then averaged 19.8 points, nine rebounds and 2.2 blocks per game in a six-game first-round series loss to the Atlanta Hawks.
Jimmy Butler, Chicago Bulls (restricted)
Teams like the Lakers and Phil Jackson's New York Knicks would surely love to pry Butler away from the Bulls, but it's not likely to happen. So long as Chicago is willing to give Butler the max-money that the market demands — and all signs so far say they will – then the league's Most Improved Player will be staying put.
Rajon Rondo, Dallas Mavericks (unrestricted)
Behold the outlier to this concept. Rondo's well-chronicled clashing with coach Rick Carlisle led to his unofficial end in Dallas, where the Mavericks couldn't care less if the door hits him on his way out. There will be still be significant interest in Rondo this July though, with the Lakers and Knicks expected to be among the suitors.
Danny Green, San Antonio Spurs (unrestricted)
When Danny Green posted a team photo at a Los Angeles restaurant via Instagram right after the Spurs' season ended, he included the hashtag #Spurforlife. That much remains to be seen, though, as Green – the 27-year-old shooting guard who remains underrated – may wind up being the odd man out during this fascinating Spurs summer. If San Antonio is forced to part ways with him because of its salary cap situation (they have 10 free agents in all), there will be plenty of interest in a sharpshooter who is such a strong perimeter defender.
Paul Pierce, Washington Wizards (player option)
Pierce eyed a reunion with Clippers coach Doc Rivers in Los Angeles, where Pierce was born and raised. But the Clippers will not have a lot of financial flexibility this summer, and Washington's success could convince Pierce to stick around for another season.
Lou Williams, Toronto Raptors (unrestricted)
The Raptors have decisions to make in the crowded backcourt that had an underwhelming performance in the postseason. Williams was the Sixth man of the Year and will have significant interest from other teams. If the Raptors are remaking their roster, there's a good chance Williams is with a new team next season.
Amir Johnson, Toronto Raptors (unrestricted)
Amir Johnson is a fan-favorite and a player who embraced the city of Toronto. But after another first-round playoff exit and holes to fill, Toronto might be going in another direction. Last offseason, the goal was to keep the team intact and re-sign its own free agents. That may not be the case this offseason, and though it might be difficult, it could be time for Johnson and the Raptors to part ways.
Tristan Thompson, Cleveland Cavaliers (restricted)
The Cavaliers coaches, front office and players love Tristan Thompson because he's one of those guys who's energetic, hustles, rebounds, plays defense and doesn't need plays called for him. Those guys are valuable. How valuable? Thompson turned down an extension just before this season began. Don't forget, Thompson's agent, Rich Paul, is also LeBron James' agent, and if James wants Thompson on the team, the Cavs will cough up the necessary dollars.
Wesley Matthews, Portland Trail Blazers (unrestricted)
Wesley Matthews will get paid this summer. Question is, will the Portland Trail Blazers be the ones paying him? Matthews' value to the Blazers was obvious. Once he went down with a season-ending Achilles injury, the Blazers were 11-16 and were dismissed in the first round in five by games the Memphis Grizzlies. Matthews is one of those two-way guards whose does a lot very well. With LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard and Matthews, the Blazers had strong fourth-quarter scoring options. All three were in the top 25 in fourth-quarter scoring. Matthews and the Blazers' decisions could be based on what Aldridge decides to do.
Monta Ellis, Dallas Mavericks (player option)
Monta Ellis got a lifeline in 2013 when the Mavericks signed him to that three-year, $25 million deal when it looked like a lot of free agent money had dried up. At 29 years old, Ellis proved he still has offensive skills, if not always efficient offensive statistics. Ellis could be another player – along the lines of Millsap – who wants one more big deal and opting out may be his course of action.
Josh Smith, Houston Rockets (unrestricted)
There's no question Josh is talented, and after his stint with the Rockets, he proved he still has considerable value. He's close with Dwight Howard, and Rockets general manager Daryl Morey is on record saying he wants to keep this team intact, and that includes signing Smith during free agency. Of course, the Rockets' playoff run could determine how badly Morey wants to bring back the same players next season.
Thaddeus Young, Brooklyn Nets (early termination option)
Thad Young was traded from Philadelphia to Minnesota in the offseason and then traded to Brooklyn at the trade deadline, and Young found a home with the Nets. Brooklyn didn't have a winning record, but were competitive and made the playoffs, and Young liked his situation. Young turns 27 in June and has been in the league eight seasons. He has value as a team player, and if he doesn't want to finish out the final season of his deal with the Nets, he will have teams interested in his services.
Follow Sam Amick on Twitter @sam_amick, and Jeff Zilligitt at @JeffZillgitt.
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