NBA Finals key numbers, expert picks: Warriors the clear favorite vs. Cavs?

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The 2015 NBA Finals between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors begins with Game 1 on Thursday night at 9 p.m. ET in Oakland. The Steph Curry-led Warriors are in quest of their first NBA title since 1975, while LeBron James and the Cavs are looking for their first championship...ever.

Who will be hoisting the Larry O'Brien Trophy this June? Here are the predictions from Paste BN Sports' NBA desk:

— Sam Amick: Warriors in 7

— Jeff Zillgitt: Warriors in 7

— Kevin Spain: Warriors in 5

— Jarrett Bell: Warriors in 7

— Scott Gleeson: Cavs in 7

BY THE NUMBERS

Arenas

• Cleveland: Quicken Loans (20,562 capacity).
• Golden State: Oracle (19,596 capacity).

Warriors lineup

• Starters: C Andrew Bogut (5.3 ppg, 8.6 rpg), F Draymond Green (14.0 ppg, 10.8 rpg), F Harrison Barnes (11.3 ppg, 5.0 rpg), G Klay Thompson (19.7 ppg, 3.7 rpg), G Stephen Curry (29.2 ppg, 6.4 apg).
• Reserves: G Andre Iguodala (8.0 ppg, 3.9 rpg), G Shaun Livingston (5.0 ppg, 2.0 rpg), C Festus Ezeli (3.2 ppg, 3.0 rpg), G Leandro Barbosa (4.9 ppg, 1.1 rpg), F David Lee (2.0 ppg, 2.7 rpg).

Cavaliers lineup

• Starters: C Timofey Mozgov (9.1 ppg, 7.2 rpg), F Tristan Thompson (9.4 ppg, 9.9 rpg), F LeBron James (27.6 ppg, 10.4 rpg, 8.3 apg), G Iman Shumpert (10.1 ppg, 5.4 rpg), G Kyrie Irving (18.7 ppg, 3.7 apg).
• Reserves: G J.R. Smith (13.5 ppg, 4.9 rpg), G Matthew Dellavedova (7.0 ppg, 2.6 apg), G James Jones (4.8 ppg, 1.5 rpg).

Points per 100 possessions

— Cleveland (108.6) and Golden State (107.3) rank first and second during the NBA playoffs. While the Cavaliers have improved from 107.7 in the regular season, the Warriors have seen their figure drop from 109.7.

Points allowed per 100 possessions

— For defensive efficiency, Cleveland (98.5) and Golden State (98.9) rank third and fourth, respectively, during the NBA playoffs. In the regular season, the Warriors led the league at 98.2. The Cavaliers, however, have vastly improved from 104.1 during the regular season, a figure that ranked 20th.

Regular-season series

— Tied 1-1. The first game between the teams Jan. 9 has little bearing because James sat out in Cleveland's 112-94 loss at Golden State. It was Mozgov's first game as a Cavalier and Smith's first start. With James back in the lineup, Cleveland won 110-99 at home Feb. 26 as Curry struggled to score (18 points on 5-for-17 shooting) and James had a season-high 42 points.

James vs. Curry

James' postseason career averages: 27.9 points, 8.6 rebounds, 6.6 assists, 1.7steals, 0.9 blocks and 3.5 turnovers a game.

Those numbers nearly mirror his career regular-season stats, where his averages are 27.3 points, 7.1 rebounds, 6.9assists, 1.7 steals, 0.8 blocks and 3.4 turnovers a game. He rebounds a bit more in the playoffs and becomes a less-efficient shooter, going from .496 in the regular season to .477 in the playoffs.

Curry's postseason career averages: 25.9 points, 7.4 assists, 4.3 rebounds, 1.8 steals, 0.1 blocks and 3.5turnovers a game.

His regular-season career averages are lower in scoring (20.9 points), assists (6.9) and rebounds (4.1) but better in steals (2.0), blocks (0.2) and turnovers (3.1).

Key matchup

• Klay Thompson vs. Shumpert: Unfortunately for Shumpert, Thompson appears not only to have recovered from a concussion but also his three-game shooting slump at the beginning of the Western Conference semifinals vs. the Houston Rockets. Thompson shot a little less than 37% in the series' first three games but converted nearly 49% of his shots in Games 4 and 5. Shumpert is not expected to shut down Thompson, but the Cavaliers will need him to at least slow the Warriors shooting guard while continuing to make three-pointers at his current rate (36.8%).

Two reasons the Cavs can win

1. The Warriors' fast pace might lead to assists, but it also has led to them turning the ball over 15.7 times per 100 possessions, the highest rate in the playoffs. And turnovers when James is on the court usually leads to highlight dunks.
2. Cleveland leads all teams in the playoffs by snatching 53.8% of all potential rebounds. Tristan Thompson has been pivotal in the Cavaliers' rebound advantage, particularly on the offensive glass, where he 4.0 of his 9.9 rebounds a game in the playoffs have come. Cleveland needs this trend to continue, and the second chances could mask Golden State's higher playoff field goal percentage of 46% (Cleveland's is 43.6%).

Two reasons the Warriors can win

1. Only one player, Trevor Ariza, has run a greater distance (46.1 miles) than the 42 miles Curry has covered in the playoffs. Fifth in this ranking is Klay Thompson, who has traveled 38.2 miles. No Cavalier ranks in the top 50 when running in the playoffs, while six Warriors are in the top 50. Combine this with Golden State's playoff-best 25.1 assists a game and Cleveland's lack of depth, and the Cavaliers could be in trouble. Cleveland simply might not be able to run with Golden State as it chases its shooters around the court at a pace it is not accustomed too.
2. At 52.8%, Golden State has the highest effective field goal percentage of all playoff teams, which accounts for a converted three-point shot being 1.5times more the point value of a two-point shot. Cleveland's effective field goal percentage is 50%, fifth best in the playoffs. Thus, the Cavaliers could have problems keeping up on the scoreboard while the Warriors make three-pointers.

-Michael J McLaughlin