Oklahoma City Thunder get their man in Chet Holmgren. Now they need some luck | Opinion
Adam Silver walked to the microphone Thursday evening and said the words Thunder fans had been expecting to hear.
“With the second pick in the 2022 NBA Draft,” the NBA commissioner said, “the Oklahoma City Thunder select Chet Holmgren from Gonzaga University.”
With that, Holmgren rose from his chair on the floor of the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, clapped his hands together a couple of times and turned to embrace his mom, who was already dabbing at her eyes. Then he did the same to his dad. After a few more hugs, Holmgren made his way to the front.
He walked on the stage and into the Thunder organization.
On a night that didn’t start as planned — Orlando picked Paolo Banchero with the No. 1 overall pick instead of Jabari Smith as had widely been expected for quite some time — Oklahoma City didn’t deviate from the plan that had been rumored. The Thunder wanted Holmgren, and got their man.
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This might be the night the Thunder rebuild turns a corner. But it will take work and sacrifice, dedication and luck.
Yes, luck.
What, you thought the Thunder got all the luck they needed when they landed the No. 2 pick in the draft?
Not even close.
Most folks associate luck with the draft lottery, and there’s no doubt it’s where luck comes in most handy. But luck remains part of what happens next for the Thunder.
That might not be something anyone wants to talk about on draft night. Not the Thunder. Not anyone. Everyone wants to believe their team will get out of the new guys what they all put in. If everyone dedicates themselves to training, developing and molding, everything will work out like it’s supposed to.
Sounds like a good theory.
But into every draft pick, luck will fall. Will it be good, falling like fairy dust and making magic? Or will it be bad, souring what looks so promising on draft night?
It’s impossible to know.
But it’s going to happen.
“Luck plays a much bigger role in all of our lives than we like to admit because a lot of times what it does is, it doesn't allow us to take credit for things that maybe we shouldn't be taking credit for,” Thunder general manager Sam Presti said last month. “We also like to blame a lot of things on bad luck, but we don't like to give good luck as much credit.”
To back up the luck theory, Presti recently shared some interesting numbers. Since the Thunder last drafted in the top five in 2009, 24 of the league’s 30 teams have drafted in the top five. That’s 80% of the league.
Half of the league has drafted at least twice in the top five during that stretch.
One third has drafted there three times or more during that span.
“It gives you an idea of just how often teams are in that position across the league,” Presti said, “and in some cases, it’s very beneficial, and in other cases, it doesn’t work out quite as well as the data would make you think.”
I’ll take Presti’s data a bit further.
During the last 12 years, three teams have had five or more picks in the top five: Philadelphia, Minnesota and Cleveland.
Both Philly and Minnesota have had five top-five picks during that stretch, including two No. 1 picks each, and both have benefited from that many top picks. The Sixers have been one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference for several years, and the Timberwolves have shown themselves to be a young force in the Western Conference.
But neither team has hit on every top-five pick.
Karl-Anthony Towns in Minnesota and Joel Embiid in Philadelphia have become cornerstones, but there have also been guys like Jahlil Okafor and Markelle Fultz and Derrick Williams who didn’t work out quite so well.
The same goes for Cleveland, which has had a whopping eight top-five picks since the Thunder last had one.
Early during that span, the Cavaliers drafted Kyrie Irving, and he helped them win a title with LeBron James. But the Cavs also picked Anthony Bennett and Isaac Okoro in the top five. Granted, Okoro is still young, but Anthony Edwards (another Minnesota pick) and LaMelo Ball were in that same draft class and have already made waves in the league.
Sometimes, top-five picks aren’t superstars.
Sometimes, they’re role players.
Sometimes, they’re worse.
And lots of times, that comes down to luck. Maybe the guy gets hurt (bad luck). Maybe someone else emerges (good luck) and takes his opportunities (bad luck). Maybe his personality isn’t the fit everyone thought it would be (bad luck), and he gets crossways with coaches or teammates (more bad luck).
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There are things, of course, that every team does in an attempt to avoid those issues. Rigorous physicals to predict injury. Extensive interviews to determine attitude.
But no evaluation is perfect.
Especially because no one can calculate for chance. There’s no formula for fate.
“The best thing we can do as an organization is to minimize bad luck and maximize good luck,” Presti said. “I'd like to think that we've been able to do that because we're one of those few teams that hasn't picked in the top five since '09.
“If you're winning consistently, you're not going to be in that position.”
Still, Presti knows luck will always have a hand. And if it happens to be good luck, he plans to be grateful.
“Happiness is wanting what you have, not getting what you want,” he said, reciting something he heard as a child.
The Thunder got Holmgren, and by all accounts, he was someone the Thunder wanted.
Maybe there's already a little good luck in the making.
Time to make the most of it.
Jenni Carlson can be reached at 405-475-4125 or jcarlson@oklahoman.com. Like her on Facebook and follow her on Twitter: @jennicarlson_ok.