Bubble Tracker: Teams living week-to-week with Big Dance hopes
Welcome to the first week of Paste BN Sports' annual Bubble Tracker breakdown.
Five weeks remain before Selection Sunday, a 35-day scramble to determine the 68-team NCAA tournament field. For now, plenty remains murky and subject to some wild fluctuations.
Two things bear repeated mention: No team exists in a vacuum, and the tournament selection committee is going to take 37 at-large teams no matter what. There is value in knowing the strengths and weaknesses of borderline tournament teams, and that's what the daily Bubble Tracker is for.
Atlantic Coast:
- Secure: Duke, Miami (Automatic Qualifier)
- Safe For Now: North Carolina State
- Solid For Now: North Carolina
- Borderline: Virginia, Maryland
- Long shot: Florida State
Team Resumes (W-L/RPI; Plus/Minus; AT-L Board; Next Game):
- Virginia: Record: 18-6, RPI: 78
Plus: Beat N.C. State, Wisconsin; 6-0 vs. T100
Minus: 6 100+losses, No. 319 NC SOS
At-large ranking: 39
Next two games: at North Carolina (Feb. 16) | at Miami (Feb. 19) - Maryland: Record: 16-7, RPI: 75
Plus: Beat N.C. State, No 100+ losses
Minus: No. 306 NC SOS, 2-5 on road/neutral
At-large ranking: 45
Next two games: Duke (Feb. 16) | at Boston College (Feb. 19) - Florida State: Record: 13-11, RPI: 65
Plus: 2 wins vs. Maryland, Michael Snaer
Minus: 6-7 at home, 8-4 vs. 100+
At-large ranking: 52
Next two games: Boston College (Feb. 16) | at N.C. State (Feb. 19)
Atlantic 10:
- Secure: Butler (AQ)
- Safe For Now: Virginia Commonwealth
- Solid For Now: None
- Borderline: Saint Louis, Charlotte, Temple, Massachusetts
- Long shot: None
Team Resumes (W-L/RPI; Plus/Minus; AT-L Board; Next Game):
- Saint Louis: Record: 18-5, RPI: 55
Plus: Beat New Mexico, 6-4 vs. T100
Minus: Lost to Rhode Island, 10 wins vs. 150+
At-large ranking: 29
Next two games: Charlotte (Feb. 16) | VCU (Feb. 19) - La Salle: Record: 17-6, RPI: 35
Plus: Beat Butler, 7-4 on the road
Minus: HTH vs Mass./Charlotte, Lost to Central Connecticut
At-large ranking: 32
Next two games: Saint Joseph's (Feb. 16) | at Temple (Feb. 21) - Charlotte: Record: 18-6, RPI: 63
Plus: Won at Butler, 7-4 road/neutral record
Minus: Lost to George Washington, No. 220 non-conference SOS
At-large ranking: 34
Next two games: at Saint Louis (Feb. 16) | Temple (Feb. 24) - Temple: Record: 16-7, RPI: 41
Plus: Beat Syracuse and Saint Louis
Minus: Lost to St. Bonaventure and Canisius
At-large ranking: 36
Next two games: Duquesne (Feb. 14) | at Massachusetts (Feb. 16) - Massachusetts: Record: 16-6, RPI: 51
Plus: 6-2 on the road, beat La Salle
Minus: Lost to George Washington, Six 200+ wins
At-large ranking: 38
Next two games: at VCU (Feb. 14) | Temple (Feb. 16)
Big East:
- Secure: Syracuse (AQ), Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Marquette
- Safe For Now: Cincinnati, Notre Dame
- Solid For Now: None
- Borderline: Villanova, St. John's
- Long shot: None
Team Resumes (W-L/RPI; Plus/Minus; AT-L Board; Next Game):
- Villanova: Record: 15-10, RPI: 64
Plus: Beat Syracuse and Louisville
Minus: Swept by Providence, lost to Columbia
At-large ranking: 44
Next two games: at Connecticut (Feb. 16) | Rutgers (Feb. 18) - St. John's: Record: 15-9, RPI: 53
Plus: Beat Cincinnati, No. 18 SOS
Minus: Lost to San Francisco and UNC Asheville
At-large ranking: 46
Next two games: at Louisville (Feb. 14) | South Florida (Feb. 20)
Big Ten:
- Secure: Indiana (AQ), Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Ohio State
- Safe For Now: Wisconsin, Illinois
- Borderline: None
- Long Shot: Iowa
Team Resumes (W-L/RPI; Plus/Minus; AT-L Board; Next Game):
- Iowa: Record: 15-9, RPI: 92
Plus: Beat Iowa State and Wisconsin
Minus: No. 331 non-conference SOS, lost to Virginia Tech
At-large ranking: 54
Next two games: at Penn State (Feb. 14) | Minnesota (Feb. 17)
Big 12:
- Secure: Kansas (AQ), Kansas State
- Safe For Now: Oklahoma State, Oklahoma
- Solid For Now: Iowa State, Baylor
- Borderline: None
Missouri Valley:
- Secure: None
- Safe For Now: None
- Solid For Now: Wichita State (AQ), Creighton
- Borderline: Indiana State
Team Resumes (W-L/RPI; Plus/Minus; AT-L Board; Next Game):
- Indiana State: Record: 16-9, RPI: 58
Plus: Beat Miami, 4-4 vs. T50
Minus: Lost to Southern Illinois, 10-5 vs. 100+
At-large ranking: 43
Next game: at Bradley (Feb. 16) | Wichita State (Feb. 19)
Mountain West:
- Secure: New Mexico (AQ)
- Safe For Now: San Diego State, Colorado State
- Solid For Now: UNLV
- Borderline: Boise State, Air Force
- Long Shot: Wyoming
Team Resumes (W-L/RPI; Plus/Minus; AT-L Board; Next Game):
- Boise State: Record: 16-7, RPI: 45
Plus: Beat UNLV, 6-6 on the road/neutral
Minus: Lost Nevada and Utah
At-large ranking: 42
Next two games: at New Mexico (Feb. 16) | Air Force (Feb. 20) - Air Force: Record: 15-8, RPI: 72
Plus: Beat San Diego State and UNLV
Minus: No. 261 non-conference SOS, Seven 300+/Non-Division I wins
At-large ranking: 47
Next two games: Colorado State (Feb. 16) | at Boise State (Feb. 20) - Wyoming: Record: 17-7, RPI: 61
Plus: Beat Colorado, San Diego State
Minus: No. 228 non-conference SOS, lost five of last seven
At-large ranking: 51
Next two games: Fresno State (Feb. 16) | at San Diego State (Feb. 19)
Pac-12:
- Secure: Arizona (AQ)
- Safe For Now: Oregon
- Solid For Now: UCLA
- Borderline: Colorado, Stanford, California Arizona State
- Long Shot: None
Team Resumes (W-L/RPI; Plus/Minus; AT-L Board; Next Game):
- Colorado: Record: 16-7, RPI: 18
Plus: No. 21 non-conference SOS, No games vs. 270+
Minus: 4-6 on the road, lost at Utah
At-large ranking: 30
Next two games: Arizona (Feb. 14) | Arizona State (Feb. 16) - Stanford: Record: 15-9, RPI: 56
Plus: Beat Oregon, only one 100+ loss
Minus: 1-7 vs. T50, 3-5 on the road
At-large ranking: 37
Next two games: Southern Cal (Feb. 14) | UCLA (Feb. 16) - Arizona State: Record: 18-7, RPI: 67
Plus: Beat Colorado, UCLA
Minus: No. 283 non-conference SOS, lost to DePaul and Utah
At-large ranking: 48
Next two games: at Colorado (Feb. 16) | Washington State (Feb. 20) - California: Record: 14-9, RPI: 59
Plus: Beat Arizona, Oregon
Minus: 2-9 vs. T100
At-large ranking: 41
Next two games: UCLA (Feb. 14) | Southern Cal (Feb. 17)
Southeastern:
- Secure: Florida (AQ)
- Safe For Now: Missouri
- Solid For Now: None
- Borderline: Kentucky, Mississippi, Alabama
- Long Shot: Texas A&M, Arkansas
Team Resumes (W-L/RPI; Plus/Minus; AT-L Board; Next Game):
- Kentucky: Record: 17-7, RPI: 44
Plus: Won at Ole Miss, No 100+ losses
Minus: 1-4 vs. T50, 10 wins vs. 200+
At-large ranking: 31
Next two games: at Tennessee (Feb. 16) | Vanderbilt (Feb. 20) - Mississippi: Record: 18-6, RPI: 48
Plus: Beat Missouri, No 100+ losses
Minus: 1-4 vs. T50, lost four of five
At-large ranking: 33
Next two games: Georgia (Feb. 16) | at South Carolina (Feb. 20) - Alabama: Record: 16-8, RPI: 60
Plus: Beat Kentucky, 6-4 vs. T100
Minus: Three 100+ home losses, lost at Auburn
At-large ranking: 40
Next two games: South Carolina (Feb. 16) | Mississippi State (Feb. 20) - Texas A&M: Record: 15-9, RPI: 77
Plus: Beat Missouri, Kentucky and Mississippi
Minus: Four 100+ losses, lost six of last nine
At-large ranking: 49
Next two games: at Vanderbilt (Feb. 16) | at Auburn (Feb. 20) - Arkansas: Record: 15-9, RPI: 100
Plus: Beat Florida, Oklahoma
Minus: 4-7 vs. T100, 1-8 on the road/neutral
At-large ranking: 55
Next two games: Missouri (Feb. 16) | Georgia (Feb. 21)
West Coast:
- Secure: Gonzaga (AQ)
- Safe For Now: None
- Solid For Now: None
- Borderline: Saint Mary's
- Long Shot: Brigham Young
Team Resumes (W-L/RPI; Plus/Minus; AT-L Board; Next Game):
- Saint Mary's: Record: 21-4, RPI: 50
Plus: Beat BYU, 7-2 on the road
Minus: No. 227 non-conference SOS, 14 wins vs. 150+/Non-Division I
At-large ranking: 35
Next two games: Gonzaga (Feb. 14) | at Loyola Marymount (Feb. 16) - BYU: Record: 18-8, RPI: 60
Plus: 7-6 on the road/neutral, No. 67 non-conference SOS
Minus: 0-6 vs. T75, 16 wins vs. 100+/Non-Division I
At-large ranking: 53
Next two games: Portland (Feb. 16) | Utah State (Feb. 19)
Others:
- Borderline: Memphis (AQ), Belmont (AQ), Middle Tennessee (AQ)
- Long shot: Southern Mississippi
Team Resumes (W-L/RPI; Plus/Minus; AT-L Board; Next Game):
- Memphis: Record: 21-3, RPI: 32
Plus: 6-0 on the road, No 50+ losses
Minus: 1-3 vs. T75, nine wins vs. 150+
At-large ranking: AQ
Next two games: at Marshall (Feb. 16) | Houston (Feb. 20) - Belmont: Record: 20-5, RPI: 20
Plus: No. 3 non-conference SOS, 5-4 vs. T100
Minus: 0-1 vs. T25, lost to Northeastern
At-large ranking: AQ
Next two games: at Tennessee State (Feb. 14) | at Eastern Illinois (Feb. 20) - Middle Tennessee: Record: 22-4, RPI: 29
Plus: No. 14 non-conference SOS, beat Mississippi
Minus: 20 wins vs. 100+, lost to Arkansas State
At-large ranking: AQ
Next two games: at Arkansas-Little Rock (Feb. 16) | South Alabama (Feb. 21) - Southern Mississippi: Record: 19-6, RPI: 47
Plus: No bad losses, 8-5 on the road
Minus: 0-6 vs. the top 100, 15 wins vs. 150+
At-large ranking: 50
Next two games: at East Carolina (Feb. 16) | Texas-El Paso (Feb. 20)
Note: RPI data was used via CBSSports.com
About our bracketologist: Patrick Stevens is Paste BN Sports' 2013 bracket specialist. He has covered college sports and projected the NCAA tournament field for more than a decade for various publications, including The Washington Times. Don't like his projections? Tweet him @D1scourse.