Breaking down mid-major mania
Atlantic Sun
Dates: March 4, March 6, March 9
Sites: Campus sites (higher-seeded team hosts)
What to expect: Can Dunk City recapture the magic from last season? Florida Gulf Coast won the Atlantic Sun tournament as the No. 2 seed — beating top-seeded Mercer — before becoming the first No. 15 seed in NCAA tournament history to reach the Sweet Sixteen. The scenario's a little different this time, as the Eagles hold the top seed for the conference tournament. Sherwood Brown, FGCU's star from 2013, is no longer around, but Bernard Thompson, Brett Comer, Chase Fieler and the rest of the high-flying crew are ready for Round Two. Dunk City does it again and takes the automatic bid.
Who wins: Florida Gulf Coast
Big South
Dates: March 5, March 7-9
Site: HTC Center (Conway, S.C.)
What to expect: This might be the most unpredictable conference tournament in the nation. Just two games separated first place from seventh place in the league standings, and it wouldn't come as a surprise for any of those teams to earn the automatic bid. Remember that Liberty, which finished 6-10 in the league a season ago, won last year's bid. With the parity in this conference, just about anybody could fail. VMI and UNC-Asheville each have a great shot but ultimately falls short.
Who wins: Coastal Carolina
Mid-Eastern Athletic
Dates: March 10-15
Site: The Scope (Norfolk, Va.)
What to expect: It has been two years since Norfolk State pulled off the stunning upset of Missouri in the 2012 NCAA tournament. While the MEAC's best is a different team this time — North Carolina Central — it's one that could put a scare into a top seed in the first round. That's if the Eagles can earn the league's automatic bid. They'll certainly be the favorite, with Hampton and Norfolk State the main challengers, but Jeremy Ingram and his 20.4 points a game lead the Eagles to the NCAAs.
Who wins: North Carolina Central
Missouri Valley
Dates: March 6-9
Site: Scottrade Center (St. Louis)
What to expect: The big story will be Wichita State's undefeated season. Can the Shockers become the first team since UNLV in 1991 to enter the NCAA tournament with an unblemished record? Recall how Saint Joseph's went unbeaten during the 2004 regular season before falling in the quarterfinals of the Atlantic 10 tournament. The MVC is down compared to years past, undoubtedly exacerbated by Creighton's departure to the Big East. It will be quite surprising if Wichita State and Indiana State don't meet in the tournament final. The Shockers pick up three more wins, though, and stay undefeated at 34-0.
Who wins: Wichita State
Northeast
Dates: March 5, March 8, March 11
Sites: Campus sites (higher-seeded team hosts)
What to expect: Robert Morris was in this position a season ago. The Colonials won the regular-season title before falling in the conference tournament (and then going on to beat Kentucky in the NIT). Will this year be any different? Robert Morris won the league with a 14-2 mark, topping second-place Wagner by two games. Wagner, however, beat Robert Morris in the last game of the regular season. It should come down to these two contenders, as any other winner would be a major shock. Karvel Anderson and his 19 points a game — not to mention home-court advantage — are enough for an NCAA tournament bid for the Colonials.
Who wins: Robert Morris
Ohio Valley
Dates: March 5-8
Site: Nashville Municipal Auditorium
What to expect: Top-seeded Belmont vs. second-seeded Murray State. Belmont earned the Ohio Valley Conference's automatic bid in the Bruins' inaugural season in the OVC last year, while Murray State took those honors the year before. They look to be on a title-game collision course, and either could be a threat to pull off an upset in the NCAA tournament. Belmont won at North Carolina this season, after all. In a championship game that could go either way, go with the defending champion in its hometown.
Who wins: Belmont
Southern
Dates: March 7-10
Site: Asheville (N.C.) Civic Center
What to expect: Davidson is looking for its third consecutive NCAA tournament berth. Remember that these Wildcats blew a six-point lead in the final 70 seconds against Marquette last season in the second round of the NCAA tournament. Big man De'Mon Brooks, the 2011-12 Southern Conference player of the year, and his 18.4 points a game, led Davidson to a regular-season title with a 15-1 league mark. The biggest threat figures to be fourth-seeded Elon, the only team to beat Davidson in conference play this season. Davidson just beat Elon by 17 points on the road, and the Wildcats win here.
Who wins: Davidson
Summit
Dates: March 8-11
Site: Sioux Falls (S.D.) Civic Center
What to expect: Top-seeded North Dakota State is looking for the second NCAA tournament bid in program history. The first came in 2009, the year the Bison first became eligible for postseason play in Division I. NDSU has won seven in a row and 12 of 13 games to close the season. IUPU-Fort Wayne and Denver could pull upsets, as each beat NDSU this season. Expect Taylor Braun and his 18 points a game, however, to lead the Bison to victory.
Who wins: North Dakota State
America East
Dates: March 8-9, March 15
Sites: Quarterfinals and semifinals are at SEFCU Arena (Albany, N.Y.); championship game is at a campus site (higher-seeded team hosts)
What to expect: After its only conference loss in late January, Vermont thoroughly dominated the America East the remaining five weeks of the regular season. The Catamounts steamrolled opponents throughout February and into March, winning 10 consecutive games by an average of 21.3 points and capturing the league's top seed. Stony Brook has talent and will present the most substantial threat, but expect the senior-laden Catamounts to reach the NCAA tournament for the third time in five years.
Who wins: Vermont
Colonial Athletic
Dates: March 7-10
Site: Baltimore Arena
What to expect: Help might have arrived just in time for Delaware. After starting 11-0 in conference play, the Blue Hens dropped two of their final five games and appeared vulnerable without starting point guard Jarvis Threatt and key reserve Marvin King-Davis. (Each was suspended at the end of January.) Both players have since returned to the court and probably will prove to be important to their team's quest for an automatic bid. It won't come easily: Towson, the preseason league favorite, enters the tournament on a six-game winning streak.
Who wins: Delaware
Horizon
Dates: March 4, March 7-8, March 11
Sites: First round is at campus sites; quarterfinals and semifinals are at Resch Center (Green Bay, Wis.); championship is at a campus site (higher-seeded team hosts)
What to expect: Wisconsin-Green Bay was far and away the best Horizon League team in the regular season, amassing a 24-5 overall record and notching a high-profile non-conference victory against ACC-leading Virginia. Led by Alec Brown, a 7-1 center with an outside shot, and 5-11 point guard Keifer Sykes, the Phoenix should take care of business on their floor. However, watch out for Cleveland State and its lights-out three-point shooting, as well as defending champion Valparaiso. The Crusaders took down Green Bay in January.
Who wins: Wisconsin-Green Bay
Mid-American
Dates: March 10, March 12-15
Sites: First round is at campus sites; second round, quarterfinals, semifinals and championship are at Quicken Loans Arena (Cleveland)
What to expect: The MAC's power pendulum has swung so many times this season that it's difficult to tell which contender has the best shot. Buffalo came on strongest in the second half of the year and might boast the league's most dominant player in Javon McCrea, a double-double machine who recently set the school's all-time scoring record. Still, don't be surprised if West Division leaders Toledo or Western Michigan emerge with the crown — Toledo already has 24 wins in 2013-14 — and don't count out the other up-and-down challengers either, such as recent NCAA tournament representative Ohio and defending tournament champion Akron.
Who wins: Buffalo
Metro Atlantic Athletic
Dates: March 6, 8-10
Site: MassMutual Center (Springfield, Mass.)
What to expect: The highest seed has not won this tournament since 2010, but that might change this year with Iona atop the league standings. Offensive-minded Iona (84.0 points a game) has advanced to the NCAA tournament each of the last two seasons — including getting an at-large in 2012 — and looks poised to make it again. Manhattan, the Gaels' most likely challenger in Springfield, has been the only team to beat them since mid-January. And don't ignore Canisius, either. The Golden Griffins' electrifying point guard, Billy Baron, averages 24.4 points.
Patriot
Dates: March 3, March 5, March 8, March 12
Sites: Campus sites (higher-seeded team hosts)
What to expect: (Editors note: Picks were made before the start of conference tournament play) American started 10-0 in conference play before Boston University came on strong to win the regular season, yet neither team came in as hot as Bucknell. The Bison — who pulled off NCAA tournament upsets in 2005 and 2006 — had won six in a row and were playing their best basketball of the year, especially on the defensive end, but lost by one point against Army in the quarterfinals.
Who wins: Bucknell
West Coast
Dates: March 6, March 8, March 10-11
Site: Orleans Arena (Las Vegas)
What to expect: Gonzaga has reached the conference championship game every season since 1998 and won the event 11 times in that span, so it's hard to pick against the perennial league powerhouse even during a less-than-dominant year. The nation's third-highest scoring team, Brigham Young, is the safest bet to emerge from the other side of the bracket, which could set up for an exciting finale in Orleans Arena. The Cougars and Bulldogs split their regular-season games, and both feature highly skilled backcourts with offensive stars. BYU's Tyler Haws leads the conference at better than 23.4 points a game, while the Zags' Kevin Pangos shoots 41.4% from three-point range.
Who wins: Gonzaga
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