Basketball Brunch: Why the national champ will come from the ACC

THE FIRST WORD: There are two truths about the 2014-15 college basketball season that we know so far.

First: Kentucky is the best team in the country. Second: The Big 12 is the toughest, deepest conference in the country.

In spite of this, the top-heavy ACC has the best chance to win the national title with five legitimate contenders. A wild Saturday that featured Duke edging Virginia and Louisville knocking off North Carolina only furthered this notion.

The conference doesn't have the odds-on favorite to win it all, but it does have several teams capable of taking down Kentucky. The conference doesn't have the overall depth of the toughest league in the country, but its top half easily is better than the Kansas-led Big 12.

As we enter the frenetic month of February, a lot of guesswork begins. Who gets into the NCAA tournament field? Who gets a No. 1 seed in the tourney?

So why don't we cut straight to the chase. Who wins the national title? Kentucky, Wisconsin and Arizona jump out as legit contenders at this point in the season (sorry Gonzaga). Here's an assessment of the five title-contending ACC teams and why they could out-duel the field.

Virginia Cavaliers (19-1, 7-1)

• Why they can win it all: They have one of the country's toughest defenses (although it collapsed against Duke in the Cavs' first loss of the season) and play at a unique pace on offense, dictating the tempo at a slower rate that frustrates opponents.
• Who they're better than: Kentucky. Crazy? Not quite. You don't beat fire with fire, you beat it with ice. And Virginia is the opposite of the Wildcats in so many facets. The Cavaliers' patience and maturity would take the Wildcats out of rhythm offensively. On paper, no team is constructed to beat Kentucky. On paper, Virginia isn't constructed to beat most teams, but it does anyway.

Duke Blue Devils (18-3, 5-3)

• Why they can win it all: Jahlil Okafor is the best player in college basketball, drawing double teams galore. The Blue Devils also have a batch of clutch shooters in Quinn Cook and Tyus Jones. The loss of Rasheed Sulaimon hurts, but it's the type of loss that can unite a team, evidenced in Saturday's victory.
• Who they're better than: Wisconsin. Against a similarly defensive-minded and offensively-patient team as Virginia, the Blue Devils would feed off strong guard play and Okafor to surge past the disciplined Badgers, which we saw in an 80-70 victory between the two teams on Dec. 3. Duke's defense still needs improvement, but the Blue Devils have the offense to beat anyone when things are clicking.

North Carolina Tar Heels (17-5, 7-2)

• Why they can win it all: No one expects them to. That, and we continue to see glimpses of how good this team can be. The Tar Heels would be battle-tested come March and could draw a favorable pathway on their side of the NCAA tournament bracket. UNC rebounds really well, has a nice mix of veterans and Marcus Paige continues to improve after a slow start.
• Who they're better than: Arizona. The Wildcats are playing a great brand of basketball, but their versatile forwards — Brandon Ashley and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson would have to play well against an aggressive UNC front line led by Kennedy Meeks.

Louisville Cardinals (18-3, 6-2)

• Why they can win it all: Because this Louisville team will be better in March than last year's Louisville team. And Montrezl Harrell, Chris Jones and Terry Rozier are better than advertised.
• Who they're better than: Kentucky. Okay, okay. We already saw what happened between the two archrivals on Louisville's homecourt back in December. This Louisville team is improving, though, and that December meeting was closer than the score illustrated. If Louisville plays a similar brand of defense and actually makes shots in a rematch, it's not a far-fetched outcome.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (20-3, 8-2)

• Why they can win it all: Despite losing 76-72 to Pittsburgh (an OK-looking résumé stain), let's look at the entire body of work, which features a close battle against Virginia and a win against Duke. Moreover, the Irish's offense is one of the best in the country. In the NCAAs, teams get hot, and the recipe is there with this team: Top catalyst in Jerian Grant and balanced options playing alongside him.
• Who they're better than: Wisconsin. The Badgers would struggle to contain Grant, who has shown takeover ability and a clutch gene this season.

TWEET THAT SPEAKS VOLUMES: Another Saturday, another SEC victory.

STAR WATCH: Forward Seth Tuttle had a career-high 29 points to carry Northern Iowa to an upset win against Wichita State, ending the Shockers' 27-game regular-season winning streak that stretched back to 2013. "The best team won," Wichita State coach Gregg Marshall said after the game. "Tuttle was unstoppable." The Panthers are 20-2 and 9-1 in Missouri Valley Conference play.

THE HIGHLIGHT REEL: North Carolina State's Trevor Lacey drilled a three-pointer at the buzzer to lift the Wolfpack past Georgia Tech, 81-80, in overtime.

UNDER THE RADAR: SMU (18-4) eased past UCF on Saturday to improve to 9-1 in the American Athletic Conference, only trailing 9-0 Tulsa. The Mustangs have been covered in adversity since the summer when top recruit Emmanuel Mudiay left to play overseas. Last month top player Keith Frazier has been ruled academically ineligible, and the school has received a notice of allegations from the NCAA.

In spite of all this, SMU is 18-4 and Larry Brown has this team positioned to lock up an NCAA tournament bid (something that eluded the Mustangs last season). Sure, this team went from Final Four potential in the early summer to marred by controversy at mid-season, but it just keeps winning despite it all.

CONFERENCE RACE SPOTLIGHT: Big East. This is one of the most intriguing league races, with seven NCAA tournament-worthy teams. Villanova (beat DePaul 68-55 on Saturday) is out in front at 6-2, while Georgetown (beat Creighton 67-40 on Saturday) is close behind at 7-3. Then Providence (6-3), Butler (6-3), Seton Hall (5-4), Xavier (5-5) and DePaul (5-5) are all close behind. And St. John's picked up a much-needed victory, beating Providence 75-66 to improve to 3-5 in league play — illustrating the parity in the conference.

WINNERS, LOSERS: Saturday's victories and losses that matter most.

Winners

• Wisconsin: Defeated Iowa 74-63 to improve to 7-1 in the Big Ten, further separating from the pack of contenders.
• Florida: Defeated Arkansas 57-56, which didn't fully salvage the Gators' season but certainly was a step in the right direction.
• Gonzaga: Defeated Memphis 82-64, which isn't exactly a signature win, but the non-conference W boosts the team's West Coast Conference-weighted credentials.
• Kansas: Defeated rival Kansas State 68-57 to climb the ladder atop the Big 12 standings.

Losers

• VCU: Lost to Richmond 64-55. Even worse, the Rams lost starting guard Briante Weber for the season with a torn ACL.
• LSU: Lost 73-67 to Mississippi State, which is the epitome off a résumé-staining loss.
• Stanford: Lost 89-88 to Washington State despite 33 points and nine rebounds from Pac-12 player of the year candidate Chasson Randle.
• Texas: Lost 83-60 to Baylor, an ugly score that set the Longhorns back to 3-5 in league play.

POLL LOOKAHEAD: Following a crazy Saturday, the Paste BN Sports' Coaches Poll (out Monday afternoon) should see a good chunk of shakeups. Will Virginia stay at No. 2 despite the loss to Duke or can Gonzaga hurdle the Cavs despite beating lower-tier competition? Where will Wisconsin and Arizona land after strong weeks? And what about a new team in the top 10? Stay tuned Monday.