Basketball Brunch: 8 bold predictions for March

THE FIRST WORD: Ladies and gentlemen, March is upon us.

Major conference tournaments start up next week and Selection Sunday is two weeks away. The who's in/who's out debates and seeding discussions will be non-stop until then.

There will be plenty of surprises and unexpected outcomes when the NCAA tournament tips off in 16 days. Here's a guess at some of them.

1.) Two power programs will not make the NCAA tournament. Ahem, Texas. The reeling Longhorns have lost four in a row to fall to 6-10 in the Big 12. This is a team that was in the top 10 in November. The pieces are there, but the Longhorns have fallen victim to the beast that is the Big 12 Conference — with seven other NCAA tournament-worthy teams beating up on each other. Unlike other bubble teams, Texas will have more opportunities — home games vs. Baylor and Kansas State, Big 12 tournament — to get things together. But as of now it looks bleak. Another power program on the outside is UCLA. The Bruins have built a résumé worthy of making the cut but they just haven't won enough or done enough to stay off the bubble. And unlike the Longhorns, UCLA doesn't have the same type of opportunity to make up ground — the Bruins' last two games coming against bottom-tier teams. If they don't stage a decent run in the Pac-12 Tournament, they're NIT-bound.

2.) No. 2 seeds will fare better than No. 1 seeds. There are eight legitimate No. 1 seed candidates. Kentucky, Villanova, Virginia and Duke are the current projected top seeds; Kansas, Gonzaga, Arizona and Wisconsin are the No. 2s. If seeding stays intact, it's difficult to not consider Arizona and Wisconsin as Final Four contenders, regardless of the No. 1 seed in their region. And while surefire No. 1 seed Kentucky will be a favorite to win the title, the other No. 1 seeds aren't locks to win their regional by any stretch.

3.) Only two Big Ten teams will make it past the first weekend. The Big Ten will likely send the most teams to the NCAA tournament (currently seven projected bids) but only two — Wisconsin and Maryland — are playing great basketball. Ohio State, Purdue, Michigan State, Iowa, Indiana and Illinois have been hanging around the NCAA tournament bubble. And though the Big Ten has some of the best coaches in the country and there will be legitimate chances to win opening-round games based on matchups, it's difficult to picture more than two teams winning multiple games.

4.) The SEC will have the most Sweet 16 teams. Kentucky and the rest of them. That's been the surface perception of the Southeastern Conference this season, but it's been an up year for the league as a whole — the SEC is fifth in RPI ranking among conferences (up from seventh last season and ninth in 2012-13). Arkansas, a projected No. 4 seed, has Sweet 16 potential. And a handful of bubble teams (Texas A&M, Ole Miss and LSU) each played Kentucky down to the wire. If these teams are good enough to take a seemingly unbeatable team to overtime, as A&M and Ole Miss did, they're good enough to reach the Sweet 16 in this year's Dance.

5.) A bubble team will reach the Elite Eight. Last season bubble teams Stanford and Tennessee reached the Sweet 16, and barely-snuck-in Dayton made it to the Elite Eight. This season forecasts a similar outcome. Among the 20-plus bubble teams in clamoring for a spot in the field of 68, there are a handful of serious contenders — as of now Oregon, Michigan State, N.C. State and St. John's — to stage a Dayton-esque run.

6.) Two mid-majors from the same league will reach the Elite Eight. The Missouri Valley will likely be the only mid-major conference to get two bids. And both teams will be incredibly dangerous. The Shockers avenged an earlier loss to the Panthers with a 74-60 home victory to secure the MVC regular-season title. It was the first meeting of two Missouri Valley Conference teams ranked among the top 11 since 1972. Wichita State is playing with the signature toughness that helped it nearly go undefeated last season and reach the Final Four in 2013. And this veteran Northern Iowa team, led by highly underrated big man Seth Tuttle, is as good if not better than the UNI team that reached the Sweet 16 in 2010. These are two Elite Eight-caliber teams.

7.) Two Pac-12 teams will reach the Final Four. Arizona showed its tournament toughness in a 63-57 road victory against a very strong Utah team. While the Wildcats are an obvious favorite to reach the Final Four based on their talented roster and experience — that dates to a loss in a regional final last season — Utah has the potential for a deep run behind player-of-the-year candidate Delon Wright. Are the Utes Final Four good? Not compared to a good chunk of teams, but they definitely will be a sleeper team to get to Indianapolis based on the type of year it's been. Arizona is the kingpin in the Pac-12, but given the right matchups Utah can do as much damage in the NCAA tournament.

8.) Kentucky will not go undefeated and win the national title. The Wildcats likely will enter the NCAA tournament without a loss — just as Wichita State did last season — and undoubtedly be the favorite to win. But while the Wildcats have the roster makeup — a handful of future NBAers — and swagger to cut down the nets, it's not that bold to suggest another team could take down the Wildcats. The recipe would take these ingredients:

• Kentucky not playing up to its potential, like in games against Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Florida and LSU.
• Another team that matches up well — Wisconsin and Arizona being the best equipped — taking the Wildcats out of their comfort zone (either dictating empo or making Kentucky's streaky guards — Devin Booker, Tyler Ulis, Aaron and Andrew Harrison — beat them while limiting a lethal frontcourt)
• A star performance. What does a No. 1-No. 4 seed in the NCAA tournament have that most SEC teams don't have: A guy who star with the ability to put a team on his back. Duke's Jahlil Okafor and Wisconsin's Frank Kaminsky are the lead candidates for player-of-the-year honors. Perhaps it's even more likely that great guard — Villanova, Duke and Virginia being prime teams — play would be the difference-maker in a down-to-the-wire showdown.

TWEET THAT SPEAKS VOLUMES: Gonzaga's 73-70 home loss to BYU all but wiped away the 'Zags chances of notching a No. 1 seed, while the Cougars jumped on the NCAA tournament bubble with a shot at an at-large bid now.

THE HIGHLIGHT REEL: Kentucky whipped Arkansas 84-67 to improve to 29-0 and win the SEC. Defensive specialist Willie Cauley-Stein had the fiercest block of the season in the rout.

***

STAR WATCH: LSU's Tim Quarterman had a triple-double — 18 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists — in the Tigers' 73-63 bubble victory against Ole Miss

— Oklahoma's Buddy Hield had 21 points and 13 rebounds in the Sooners' 67-60 victory against TCU to flex his Big 12 Player of the Year candidacy.

— Murray State's Cameron Payne had 31 points, eight rebounds and six assists in the Racers' 73-67 victory against Tennessee-Martin. Murray State has won 24 in a row and has Cinderella written all over it. Payne, an electric point guard, could become a March darling a la C.J. McCollum.

RÉSUMÉ HITS: There were plenty of teams that didn't do themselves any favors Saturday, but the two biggest losses to dent credentials were North Carolina State falling to bottom-feeder Boston College and Oklahoma State losing to basement squad Texas Tech. If both teams were previously safe, those were the type of losses to put them back in the danger zone.

WINNERS: Saturday's 10 biggest victories.

Winners

• Kansas State: Defeated Iowa State 70-69 for a win that gives the Wildcats life for the NCAA tournament following a previous résumé-boosting victory against archrival Kansas.
• Kansas: Defeated a win-hungry Texas team 69-64 in a close battle that strongly positions the Jayhawks to win their 11th consecutive Big 12 regular-season title.
• Baylor: Defeated West Virginia 78-66 to strengthen its NCAA tournament seeding and climb the latter in the Big 12 standings.
• Villanova: Defeated Xavier 78-66 for the Wildcats' 10th consecutive victory. The Wildcats are well positioned to notch a No. 1 seed in the tourney.
• Virginia: Defeated Virginia Tech 69-57 to clinch at least a share of the ACC title, a great accomplishment considering the injuries.
• St. John's: Defeated Georgetown 81-70 to make its at-large bid hopes much safer.
• Dayton: Defeated Virginia Commonwealth 59-55 to vault to the top of the Atlantic 10 standings (in a three-way tie) and stay on the right side of the NCAA tournament bubble.
• Davidson: Defeated George Washington 77-66 to jump into that three-way tie for first place in the Atlantic 10 and keep the NCAA portfolio veering in the right direction.
• Boise State: Defeated Mountain West front-runner San Diego State 56-46 to significantly boost its NCAA tourney credentials as a bubble team.
• Georgia: Defeated Missouri 68-44 for the Bulldogs' third win in a row to stay on the right side of the bubble.

ALL THE COLLEGE BASKETBALL ACTION THIS WEEK