Bubble Watch winners and losers: North Carolina surges as Virginia, Big 12 fringe teams falter
The last Saturday before the calendar turns to March has arrived, and men's college basketball teams hanging around the NCAA Tournament bubble are officially in the make-or-break portion of their season.
Consider ACC teams to be closer to the side of making it. And consider Big 12 bubble teams to be more in the breaking it department.
While the ACC has been down this year, Saturday's action saw North Carolina (beat N.C. State), Notre Dame (drubbed Georgia Tech) and Wake Forest (routed Louisville) pick up much-needed victories in their battles for inclusion in the field of 68. UNC started the day on the outside looking in, but this blue-blood is now one step closer to catapulting to the right side of the bubble with one week left in the regular season. Notre Dame and Wake Forest have both likely secured at-large bids with their latest wins.
Virginia, meanwhile, was on the wrong end of a last-second buzzer-beater by Florida State's Matthew Cleveland. Did we mention it's almost March yet? The Cavaliers needed that victory and will now be scrambling in the final two weeks.
Kansas State and West Virginia highlighted an ugly day for Big 12 bubble teams, with KSU falling by one point to Iowa State. WVU, meanwhile, has lost 13 of its last 14 games and has essentially burned out its at-large chances. Bubble team TCU was the outlier in the league Saturday, knocking off No. 9 Texas Tech for a résumé-boosting victory.
A look at all the winners and losers on the NCAA Tournament bubble from Saturday's jam-packed action.
ANALYSIS: Kentucky, Purdue both spoil No. 1 seed hopes with crucial losses
Winners
North Carolina. The Tar Heels (21-8, 13-5 ACC) took care of business on the road against North Carolina State – a team it needed to beat – in an 84-74 victory. They started the day as the first team out of the projected field in Paste BN Sports' bracketology and now are likely to find themselves on the right side of the bubble. UNC's biggest hole on the résumé right now is in the Quadrant 1 win department, where it only sports one. That makes a road clash at Duke next week all the more important.
Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish (21-8, 14-4 ACC) began the day as a comfortable No. 9 seed in the latest Paste BN Sports bracketology. After Saturday's convincing 90-56 victory over Georgia Tech, this team can start to feel safer heading into the home stretch before Selection Sunday.
Wake Forest. Starting the day as a projected No. 10 seed, the Demon Deacons (22-8, 12-7 ACC) needed to separate themselves from other bubble teams and they did just that by pulverizing Louisville 99-77. The lack of Quadrant 1 wins and a non-conference strength of schedule in the 300s will be hard to ignore for the selection committee so it's important this team keeps on winning.
TCU. The Horned Frogs (18-9, 7-8 Big 12) got the profile-building victory they needed in knocking off Texas Tech at home, 69-66. That win was even more necessary considering the murderer's row of a finish to the regular season for this group – back-to-back games vs. Kansas, then on the road at West Virginia. A non-conference strength of schedule of 280 is keeping TCU from being more safe at this point.
Florida. The Gators (18-11, 8-8 SEC) avoided a résumé stain by getting past SEC bottom-feeder Georgia 84-72. Florida got 27 points from guard Phlandrous Fleming. Florida started the day as one of the "next four out" and made up little ground, but it kept its at-large hopes alive by claiming a must-win game.
VCU. The Rams (20-7, 13-3 Atlantic 10) began the day as one of the "first four out" but likely stayed right in the thick of the mix for NCAA Tournament inclusion by dispatching a lowly A-10 team in UMass. VCU's credentials only include two Quadrant 1 wins, but a top-20 non-conference schedule should stand out to the committee.
Davidson. The Wildcats (24-4, 14-2) can't afford to stub their toe in Atlantic 10 play if they want to secure an at-large bid, so drubbing Fordham 66-45 was necessary. This profile only has two Quadrant 1 wins but a NET score in the 40s is helping to keep Davidson around the No. 11 seed range on the right side of the bubble.
Losers
Virginia. The Cavaliers (17-12, 11-8 ACC) faltered in the closing minutes vs. Florida State, coughing up a comfortable second-half lead to fall 64-63 on a last-second game-winner by FSU's Matthew Cleveland. This puts UVA in serious jeopardy of missing the NCAAs now. Virginia's NET score in the 70s isn't pretty, but its three Quadrant 1 wins (including one over Duke) are keeping coach Tony Bennett's team alive – barely. Virginia started the day as one of the "next four out" and now likely falls even further to the wrong side of the bubble.
Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights (16-12, 10-8 Big Ten) don't have to worry about having enough quality wins on their profile, because they accomplished that in the span of two weeks earlier this month against the Big Ten's top teams. The problem with Rutgers' tournament portfolio is that it's lacking overall wins, so coming up short in a 66-61 loss to Wisconsin just means this team will have to add at least two more victories to go dancing. That's because of a Quadrant 4 loss and a non-conference strength of schedule that ranks 334th.
Kansas State. The Wildcats (14-14, 6-10 Big 12) got 32 points from Nigel Pack, but it wasn't enough to stave off Iowa State, as KSU lost another nail-biter, 74-73. Last Saturday it had another a similar outcome – an 82-79 overtime loss to Oklahoma State. Those near-victories may end up being the difference in this team's postseason fate, as now its an uphill climb for coach Bruce Weber's team to get back into the mix.
West Virginia. The Mountaineers (14-15, 3-13 Big 12) led by double digits midway through the second half against Texas and were right on track but ultimately couldn't pull off the upset they needed to resuscitate their NCAA Tournament profile. It's the latest of a major skid that's seen the Mountaineers lose six straight and 13 of their last 14 games – all after starting the season 12-1. WVU still has a shot at an at-large bid because the committee won't pay attention to its ugly 3-13 league record.
Miami (Fla.). The Hurricanes (20-9, 12-6 ACC) went down to the wire before coming up short in a 71-70 setback vs. Virginia Tech. Although Miami played its way closer to safety as a projected No. 10 seed, we're at the point in the season where one loss can quickly shove a team to the danger zone along the No. 11 or No. 12 seed line. That's the case after this loss for the Hurricanes.
Dayton. The Flyers (20-9, 12-4 Atlantic 10) all but spoiled their at-large hopes with a 62-60 loss to A-10 basement squad La Salle. That type of loss is exactly what bubble teams are trying to avoid as March nears. This résumé now has four Quadrant 4 losses that will undoubtedly stand out to the selection committee if Dayton can't secure the A-10's auto-bid.
Creighton. The Bluejays (19-9, 11-6 Big East) were no match for Providence in a 72-51 loss that snapped a six-game winning streak. Starting the day as a seemingly comfortable No. 9 seed, this was an opportunity to all but secure their chances of inclusion on Selection Sunday. Instead, there still may be work to do on this profile.
Xavier. The Musketeers (17-11, 7-10 Big East) are relatively safe for inclusion in the NCAAs, starting the day at a comfortable No. 8 seed. But Saturday's 82-66 setback to former bubble team Seton Hall just means there may still be work to do for Xavier to feel completely secure on Selection Sunday.
Follow college basketball reporter Scott Gleeson on Twitter @ScottMGleeson.