March Madness is here: Ranking the best men's NCAA Tournament games to watch Thursday
It’s here, college hoops fans. The first Thursday of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament is what truly gives March Madness its name.
Sure, the First Four round is fun and sometimes leads to extended runs, like UCLA’s wild ride a year ago. But the next two days, as the round of 64 plays out, are when Cinderellas emerge, brackets are busted and new stars are born.
With all games now available in their entirety across the four host networks, viewers can pick and choose where to focus their attention. We’re here to help.
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Below are Thursday's 16 games, ranked in order of watchability, with the ones we think will be the most competitive or offer the best storylines at the top. Obviously, things could change as events unfold during the day – we didn’t quite see Oral Roberts coming last year, after all – but that’s what remotes are for, right? We’ll also make predictions at the final scores, while strongly advising readers not to take them to the bank.
With all that out of the way, here’s the lineup (times p.m. ET).
9 Memphis vs. 8 Boise State, 1:45, TNT
In addition to supposedly being the closest matchups on paper, the 8-9 contests are worth watching because the winners occasionally cause second-round chaos by toppling the regional No. 1. The Broncos, the Mountain West regular-season and tournament champs who are criminally underseeded, according to plenty of analysts, have that potential if they can get past the wildly unpredictable Tigers, who have played much better during the latter part of the season. Boise State plays strong defense, surrendering just 60.8 points a game, but Memphis’ Jalen Duren could pose a mismatch in the post. The Broncos’ free-throw shooting, just 64.9% as a team, is also a concern, though they usually make the ones they need to.
Prediction: Boise State, 67-63.
9 Creighton vs. 8 San Diego St., 7:27, truTV
This is another 8-9 pairing that could be close and low-scoring. The Aztecs boast the stingiest scoring defense in the tournament field at 57.7 a game. Creighton doesn’t have an array of three-point shooters like Bluejays’ squads of recent vintage but has shown improvement on the defensive end. The game could hinge on how well Aztecs scoring leader Matt Bradley (17.0 ppg) is able to work around Creighton rim protector Ryan Kalkbrenner (2.7 bpg).
Prediction: San Diego State, 64-59.
10 San Francisco vs. 7 Murray State, 9:40, CBS
This clash in the late window should be worth the wait. Fans who remember when the Racers introduced Ja Morant to the basketball world three years ago will want to keep an eye on this year’s star forward KJ Williams (18.2 ppg, 8.6 rpg). But the Dons, the third team out of a deeper-than-usual West Coast Conference, could be a tough draw thanks to the dynamic backcourt tandem of Jamaree Bouyea and Khalil Shabazz.
Prediction: Murray State, 82-76.
11 Michigan vs. 6 Colorado St., 12:15, CBS
Michigan’s inclusion in the tournament’s main draw was among the biggest surprises when the bracket was unveiled Sunday. But though the Wolverines avoided the First Four round, their matchup with the Rams is hardly a favor from the committee. CSU features Mountain West player of the year David Roddy up front, and Isaiah Stevens provides a steady hand at the point. Michigan’s Hunter Dickinson is an inside force at both ends, but the Wolverines’ guard play is sporadic.
Prediction: Colorado State, 78-73.
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13 South Dakota St. vs. 4 Providence, 12:40, truTV
The Jackrabbits’ lofty win total and the Friars’ most recent outing makes this a trendy upset pick. South Dakota State has good depth, a superb floor leader in Baylor Scheierman and a reliable inside scorer in Douglas Wilson. Providence won’t make it easy, however, especially if the Friars’ somewhat streaky three-point shooters can find the range to support Nate Watson’s inside game.
Prediction: South Dakota State, 79-76.
12 New Mexico St. vs. 5 Connecticut, 6:50, TNT
The 5-12 portion of the bracket is historically a good place to look for possible upsets. The Aggies are tournament regulars and figure to be strong candidates. They appear to match up well with the Huskies, who are scrappy but not often dominant. NMSU’s primary catalyst is Teddy Allen, an athletic wing player who leads the Aggies in scoring and rebounds. UConn has a bit more scoring depth, paced by R.J. Cole from the backcourt. Ball security could be an issue for the Aggies, who have more turnovers (448) than assists (447) as a team.
Prediction: New Mexico State, 67-64.
12 Indiana vs. 5 Saint Mary's, 7:20, TBS
The Hoosiers are playing their best basketball of the season but had more than a few anxious moments on Selection Sunday. But it’s fair to wonder if they have enough in the tank after surviving a competitive First Four clash with Wyoming and travel difficulties to reach Portland. The Gaels should be well-rested as they take the court for the first time in over a week but must also hope that doesn’t mean they’re rusty. The interior battle between IU’s Trayce Jackson-Davis and the Gaels’ Matthias Tass will be the headliner, but both teams will need their other offensive options to deliver.
Prediction: Saint Mary’s, 70-64.
13 Vermont vs. 4 Arkansas, 9:20, TNT
The Razorbacks are in a curious position, possessing the physicality and athleticism to make it all the way to New Orleans but facing potential pitfalls throughout their region. It was Colgate that gave Arkansas a push as a No. 3 seed last season, and Vermont, another experienced team that nearly swept its conference, could pose a similar threat. The game could get away from the Catamounts quickly if they struggle against the Hogs’ notorious pressure and fall in an early hole. But if Vermont is able to execute its offense and hit open threes, there could be some late-night drama.
Prediction: Vermont, 85-83.
9 Marquette vs. 8 North Carolina, 4:30, TBS
The third 8-9 game on the Thursday slate has the greatest potential to ultimately be a mismatch. The Golden Eagles limp into the tournament having dropped five of their last eight games. The Tar Heels had their struggles during the year as well but appear to have figured some things out down the stretch. Guard play will be critical for UNC to help Armando Bacot get his touches in the paint. Marquette’s pressure defense that generates nearly eight steals a game could be an equalizer.
Prediction: North Carolina, 78-65.
12 Richmond vs. 5 Iowa, 3:10, truTV
The Atlantic 10 champion Spiders have a few factors operating in their favor entering March Madness. They have a veteran lineup featuring several super seniors who have waited a long time to get here. Unfortunately, they got arguably the toughest draw of all the 12 seeds, pitted against the red-hot Hawkeyes. Yes, Iowa had a bit of good fortune during its Big Ten tourney run, but its high-speed offense is putting up 83.8 points a game. Richmond will do its best to keep the pace manageable, but Iowa figures to have too many weapons.
Prediction: Iowa, 78-67.
13 Akron vs. 4 UCLA, 9:50, TBS
The underdog card is no longer in the Bruins’ hand, so their immediate reaction to playing as the hunted in March will be worth a look. The Zips, somewhat unlikely MAC tournament champs, might not have the depth to hang with UCLA, but it is worth noting that Akron’s season began way back in November with a near-upset of Ohio State.
Prediction: UCLA, 85-69.
16 Norfolk St. vs. 1 Baylor, 2, TBS
Three of the four No. 1 seeds will take the court Thursday. The Bears will be first to do so and will be eager to erase the memory of their last outing in the Big 12 tournament quickly. But the Spartans, who shoot a more than respectable 48.6% from the floor, are capable of hanging around awhile.
Prediction: Baylor, 77-59.
15 Saint Peter's vs. 2 Kentucky, 7:10, CBS
The Peacocks, the somewhat surprising Metro Atlantic tournament champs despite a second-place finish, can take just a little solace in avoiding a No. 16 seed. Their smallish lineup probably won’t have many answers for the Wildcats, particularly double-double machine Oscar Tshiebwe.
Prediction: Kentucky, 89-61.
14 Longwood vs. 3 Tennessee, 2:45, CBS
Give Longwood credit for taking charge of the Big South Conference wire-to-wire. On the surface, the Lancers getting a 14 seed in their first-ever NCAA tourney appearance would seem like a positive development. In reality, the Volunteers are almost certainly underseeded on the No. 3 line and, unfortunately for Longwood, will be looking to prove it.
Prediction: Tennessee, 86-58.
16 Georgia St. vs. 1 Gonzaga, 4:15, TNT
The Sun Belt champ doesn’t usually get tagged with a 16 seed. The Panthers only finished third in the conference but haven’t lost since Feb. 3. Their 10-game winning streak will almost certainly end here, however, as they won’t have the bodies to disrupt the high-scoring Bulldogs.
Prediction: Gonzaga, 93-59.
16 Texas Southern vs. 1 Kansas, 9:57, truTV
This one won’t rob anyone of sleep, either, except possibly the most devoted of Jayhawks fans. But the Tigers deserve a shoutout for winning their third First Four game in the last five years, and their strong interior defenders could at least make KU work for its points.
Prediction: Kansas, 85-67.
Follow Paste BN Sports' Eddie Timanus on Twitter @EddieTimanus.