Oddsmakers say men's NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 is midnight for Cinderella
Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski's final Big Dance creates major liability.
- Bookmakers and sharp bettors don't expect Coach K's feel-good story to last.
- One sportsbook accepted 17 wagers on Saint Peter's to win the national championship.
- College basketball bluebloods highlight many Sweet 16 matchups.
The legend of Coach K, a +50,000 underdog and the ultimate meeting of tournament bluebloods make Sweet 16 action remarkably compelling.
At several sportsbooks, Duke presents the greatest liability because a flurry of sentimental bettors wagered on the Blue Devils to send coach Mike Krzyzewski into retirement a champion.
Betting on Coach K
Duke edged Michigan State , 85-76, Sunday, when sophomore big man Mark Williams provided key blocks down the stretch while freshman forward Paolo Banchero affirmed his top-five NBA Draft status with 19 points.
Afterward, Krzyzewski was movingly reflective.
“Look, I’m 75,” Krzyzewski said. “To have moments like that, you've got to be kidding me. Really, how damn lucky can you be to be in that? And I want to share it. I don’t want to sit down and say, ‘You guys enjoy it. I want to be in the party a little bit. That's the enjoyment I've got, I've had for 47 years.
"Today was one of the really good days.”
MORE: Coach K's farewell tour extended through next weekend
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At Tipico Sportsbook, spokesman Sunny Gupta said Duke is its greatest liability by a wide margin.
“We see this as the result of heavy promotion of his ‘last run,’ Gupta said, "more so than how Duke looked over the past two weeks (stumbling) into the tournament.”
With FanDuel Sportsbook also pointing to a Duke title as their greatest financial fear, the bookmakers and sharp bettors aren’t necessarily expecting the feel-good story to last another round.
No. 3 Texas Tech, coming off a 59-53 triumph over gritty Notre Dame, is favored by 1.5 points over No. 2 Duke in their Thursday night West region meeting in San Francisco (9:30 p.m. ET on CBS).
“A more casual fan may think Duke would be a prohibitive favorite, but the oddsmakers know and deeply respect Texas Tech,” said Adam Pullen, assistant director of trading at Caesars Sportsbook. “If they’re banking solely on the Coach K factor, they’re sorely mistaken because this will not be a cakewalk. Texas Tech is going to defend like no other, so Duke is going to have a real tough task in store for them. Texas Tech offensively is not that strong, but their defense can shut a lot of teams down.”
At the Las Vegas Superbook, for instance, Jay Kornegay said his staff has raised Duke from opening 16/1 to 18/1 to win the title.
“There’s some sentimental interest in Duke, no doubt, but it’s mostly limited to the $10 and $20 bettors, and that’s a minimal factor when you get down to it,” Kornegay said. “Look, do you want to win or do you want to root for Coach K?”
Saint Peter's Cinderella story
Sentimental feelings also prevail with the Cinderella run of No. 15 Saint Peter’s, which knocked off Kentucky and Murray State to reach the Sweet 16 against No. 3 Purdue (Friday, 7:09 p.m. ET on CBS).
Purdue, however, is favored by 12.5 points at some shops.
“You still set the numbers by your power rankings," Kornegay said. "There might be slight adjustments made off recent results like beating Kentucky, but we’ve seen throughout the years how a team will come off a huge upset and then lose by 25.
"Bookmakers don’t make knee-jerk adjustments. We make slight adjustments.”
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At FanDuel, Saint Peter’s opened as a +50,000 longshot to win the tournament and the book accepted 17 wagers on the Peacocks, with one individual betting $1,000 to win $501,000.
Tipico now lists Saint Peter's as 100/1 underdogs to win the tournament while Caesars lists them as a +650 money line bet to win straight up.
“Purdue has shown up for both games of the tournament thus far and shown why it believed they should have been a No. 2 seed,” Tipico’s Gupta said. “Purdue is one of our largest liabilities to win the championship as it has a complete team with a high-powered offense.
"The line is set with Purdue as such heavy favorites, as it looks like the Cinderella run has come to an end.”
Blue-Blood Sweet 16 matchups
A rising fellow Cinderella is Midwest No. 10 seed Miami (Fla.) after the 7.5-point underdog Hurricanes impressively eliminated No. 2 Auburn.
No. 11 Iowa State vs. No. 10 Miami (Friday, 10 p.m. ET, TBS): The Hurricanes are 2.5-point favorites over the Cyclones, who upset Wisconsin. The game's over/under is 132.5, the lowest total among all Sweet 16 contests.
Kornegay said Miami is closing in on Gonzaga and North Carolina in number of betting tickets submitted thus far.
No. 10 North Carolina vs. No. 4 UCLA ( Friday, 9:39 p.m. ET, CBS): UNC is only a +1.5-point underdog after ousting reigning NCAA champion Baylor in the East division. UCLA is fighting to return to the Final Four for a second year in a row.
“Two blue-blood teams with rich histories playing head-to-head — that's bound to generate so many tickets,” Kornegay said.
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No. 4 Arkansas vs. No. 1 Gonzaga (Thursday, 7:09 p.m. ET, CBS): The Gonzaga Bulldogs are drawing considerable action in the West region as a wide 8.5-point favorite. The over-under of 154.5 is the highest of all games posted by Tipico.
Gonzaga, however, hasn’t covered in either game, and No. 1 seeds are 2-6 against the spread — including their 0-4 second-round mark.
No. 11 Michigan vs. No. 2 Villanova (Thursday, 7:29 p.m. ET, TBS): The South top-seeded Wildcats are just slight 1.5-point favorites over the No. 5 Cougars, who enjoy the comfort of playing in their home state in San Antonio.
Villanova joins Houston and Purdue as the only teams to have won each of their tournament games by double-digits.
No. 5 Houston vs. No. 1 Arizona (Thursday, 9:59 p.m. ET, TBS): The Wildcats-Wolverines winner meets the Arizona-Houston winner.
Arizona showed its mettle by defeating TCU in overtime late Sunday night.
“They still needed overtime to overcome TCU, so it makes you wonder how they’ll do in these remaining games,” Kornegay said.
Caesars' Pullen added, “Houston is a better version of TCU. They defend, they’re gritty, they’re tough. Arizona was just in a dogfight with TCU, and they’re going to be in another one here.”
"I certainly respect Houston. If people just look at the seeds and see a low spread for a one [seed] vs. a five [seed], they might be a little surprised. But those in the know understand Houston isn’t a five seed. They’re rated a lot better than that.”
No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 4 Providence (Friday, 7:15 p.m. ET on TBS): Midwest top Kansas is a 7.5-point favorite over Providence in a game expected to leave the winner favored in the Elite Eight meeting against the Miami-Iowa State victor.
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