March Madness expert picks, predictions for today's men's First Four games
The final appetizer before March Madness kicks into full gear is upon us with the conclusion of the men's NCAA Tournament First Four on Wednesday. The second set of these play-in games at the 2025 NCAA Tournament will feature a rematch from the Sweet 16 two years ago and a pair of No. 16 seeds who are frequent nonconference opponents with campuses separated by about 60 miles.
The doubleheader at UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio begins with American and Mount St. Mary's playing for the No. 16 seed in the East Region and a spot in the round of 64 to face No. 1 seed Duke on Friday. The two schools have played every season since the 2005-06 season, with American having won the last four meetings.
Texas and Xavier are playing for the Midwest Region No. 11 seed in Wednesday's nightcap. The Longhorns knocked Xavier out of the NCAA Tournament in a 2023 Sweet 16 game. The winner, this time, will take on No. 6 seed Illinois in the round of 64.
Here's what else to know about Wednesday's First Four games for the 2025 NCAA Tournament, including predictions for Texas-Xavier and Mount St. Mary's-American, game times and schedule, and how to watch the start of March Madness:
March Madness games today: 2025 NCAA Tournament First Four schedule
Wednesday, March 19
- No. 16 American vs. No. 16 Mount St. Mary's, 6:40 p.m.
- No. 11 Texas vs. No. 11 Xavier, 9:10 p.m.
March Madness 2025: Texas vs. Xavier predictions
ESPN: Texas has 53.6% chance to beat Xavier
ESPN's matchup predictor gave Texas a 53.6% chance to win their First Four game against Xavier, as of Tuesday afternoon.
Arizona Republic: Xavier 75, Texas 70
"The SEC sent 14 of 16 teams to the tournament and Texas was No. 14. Did the Longhorns deserve the bid? We're about to find out against an Xavier team that won seven straight games before losing in the first round of the Big East Tournament."
NBC Sports: Take Xavier
"Xavier lost to Marquette in the Big East Tournament, 89-87. The loss snapped a seven-game win streak for the Musketeers. Zach Freemantle is averaging 17.3 points and 7.1 rebounds per game to lead Xavier."
Action Network: Xavier
"A rematch of the 2023 Sweet 16 game that helped Rodney Terry earn the full-time head coaching job at Texas, this game could end up being a full-circle moment for Terry’s tenure in Austin, as rumors about his job security have been rampant in recent weeks ... Xavier has an element that Texas lacks: a go-to interior scorer in sixth-year senior Zach Freemantle."
NCAA Tournament 2025: American vs. Mount St. Mary's predictions
ESPN: American has 53.4% chance to beat Mount St. Mary's
ESPN's matchup predictor gave American a 53.4% chance to win its First Four game against Mount St. Mary's, as of Tuesday afternoon.
NBC Sports: Go with American
"American University earned the right to play in the NCAA Tournament as champions of the Patriot League. Winners of their last four games, American is led by Matt Rogers who averages 17 points per game. Rogers scored 25 in the Patriot League title game against Navy. ... These teams have met in years past with American winning the last four meetings and six of the last ten."
Sports Illustrated: American wins
"The key will be for American to dictate the pace. It ranks in the bottom 10 in adjusted tempo according to KenPom ... It can do that against a conservative (Mount St. Mary's) defense that won’t generate turnovers and allow the team to run its preferred offense throughout."
Arizona Republic: Mount St. Mary's 69, American 66
"Both of these schools went 22-12 in the regular season. Both have four-game win streaks. Both won their conference tournaments. We're taking the underdog in a very close game in Dayton."
March Madness 2025: How to watch NCAA Tournament First Four
Every First Four game at University of Dayton's UD Arena during the 2025 NCAA Tournament will be broadcast nationally on truTV via doubleheaders on Tuesday and Wednesday. The first game involving No. 16 seeds is scheduled to tip off at 6:40 p.m. ET each night, with a game involving No. 11 seeds to follow at approximately 9:10 p.m. ET. All games are also available to stream via Sling TV.
- Date: March 19
- Time: 6:40 and 9:10 p.m. ET
- Location: UD Arena (Dayton, Ohio)
- TV: truTV
- Streaming: Sling TV
Watch NCAA Tournament First Four games with Fubo
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