Men's March Madness upset predictions: What teams could surprise in today's second round
The opening days of the 2025 NCAA men’s basketball tournament have been decidedly short on upsets.
For the first time since 2017, every one of the top four seeds, a total of 16 teams, advanced to the second round. They did so with relative ease, too, winning their matchups by an average of nearly 23 points.
To be sure, there were some relatively surprising results. No. 11 seed Drake had its way with No. 6 seed Missouri. No. 12 seed Colorado State handled No. 5 seed Memphis, though the Rams entered the game as a slight favorite. Will Wade and No. 12 seed McNeese were blowing out No. 5 seed Clemson before eventually holding on for a 69-67 victory.
While the jam-packed first two days of the tournament didn’t feature the kinds of thrilling moments that have come to define them, perhaps some of that madness is simply waiting to unfold in the second round, with Arkansas’ win over St. John’s offering an encouraging sign of what could be in the cards.
What potential surprises await Sunday as the final group of teams aim to punch their tickets to the Sweet 16?
Here’s a look at some of the most likely upsets from the second day of the second round of the NCAA Tournament:
Men's March Madness second round upset picks
These upset picks do not include games in which there’s a seed difference of fewer than four.
No. 10 seed New Mexico over No. 2 seed Michigan State
Betting against Tom Izzo in March is never wise, but in this case, it’s not totally foolish.
New Mexico may well have the best player on the floor for either team in guard Donovan Dent, who’s among the top 15 Division I players in both points per game (20.6) and assists per game (6.4). The Lobos are far from a one-man show, either, with big man Nelly Junior Joseph one of just three players left in the tournament who’s averaging a double-double this season.
The Spartans are fighting against history, too. Entering this year’s tournament, there were 24 No. 2 seeds in NCAA Tournament history that began the season unranked and finished it in the top 10. Of those 24 squads, 15 failed to make the Sweet 16. This year, only two squads fit that description — St. John’s and Michigan State — with Rick Pitino’s Red Storm already falling on Saturday in the second round. Are the Spartans next?
No. 12 seed Colorado State over No. 4 seed Maryland
Colorado State is one of the hottest teams in the sport, with an 11-game win streak that was punctuated by a relatively comfortable eight-point victory over a 29-win Memphis team in the first round. The Rams haven’t faced a challenge quite as formidable as Maryland’s “Crab Five” during that time, but they have star power of their own in forward Nique Clifford, who was averaging 22.2 points and 9.9 rebounds per game in the 12 games entering the NCAA Tournament.
Though they showed few signs of tumult in a dominant first-round win against Grand Canyon, the Terrapins are dealing with several potential distractions, namely with coach Kevin Willard being prominently linked to the open Villanova job and his pointed public comments about outgoing athletic director Damon Evans. Willard, for his part, hasn’t been stellar in the tournament, either, with a 3-6 career record in March Madness.
No. 7 Saint Mary’s over No. 2 Alabama
After already surviving a tougher-than-expected challenge from No. 15 seed Robert Morris in the first round, Alabama could be in even more trouble in its next game.
The Crimson Tide’s matchup with Saint Mary’s will be a clash of drastically different styles, with Alabama’s up-tempo attack against the Gaels, who are the fifth-slowest team in adjusted tempo, according to KenPom. Saint Mary’s is also one of the sport’s best rebounding teams, bringing down 40% of its own misses and ranking among the top 10 teams nationally in preventing offensive rebounds for opponents.
If the Gaels can slow down the game and can end possessions for a 3-point-dependent Alabama team after a single missed shot, they can end the Crimson Tide’s dream of a return trip to the Final Four.