March Madness upsets: Which Sweet 16 teams could pull off win in men's NCAA Tournament?
As each round of the men's NCAA basketball tournament passes, the idea of the upset loses some luster.
There are examples that go against this idea, of course. George Mason, VCU and Loyola Chicago’s runs to the Final Four as No. 11 seeds didn’t feel any less stunning the further they advanced in the bracket. No. 15 seed Saint Mary’s beating Purdue in the Sweet 16 in 2022 felt just as shocking as its win a week earlier against Kentucky.
At this stage in March Madness, though, it shouldn’t usually be a surprise that a team capable of advancing past the event’s first week manages to win another game. When there’s only one team remaining that’s lower than a No. 6 seed, as is the case this year, that potential for surprise dwindles that much more.
Still, possible upsets lurk. What lower-seeded teams might pull off a win as an underdog to get one step closer to a Final Four?
Here’s a look at four potential upsets in the Sweet 16:
March Madness Sweet 16 upset predictions
No. 10 Arkansas over No. 3 Texas Tech
John Calipari’s Razorbacks are hitting their stride at just the right moment. Since the start of February, and following a disappointing 12-8 start, Arkansas is 10-5, with eight of those wins coming over NCAA Tournament teams. One of the sport’s highest-priced rosters is starting to play like a group loaded with former five-star recruits and coveted transfers, offering a level of length, speed and athleticism that few teams remaining can match.
Perhaps the biggest question facing the Razorbacks heading into the matchup is whether they will have leading scorer Adou Thiero, who has missed the past eight games while nursing a hyperextended knee. They didn’t need him to neutralize and ultimately knock off Rick Pitino’s St. John’s team, though, with players such as Billy Richmond stepping up to fill in the void.
In 2014, Calipari led an underachieving Kentucky team loaded with talent all the way to the national championship game, with the squad coalescing right when it needed to do so. Eleven years later, he may have a similar situation on his hands. Texas Tech is an exceptional team that might have the best player on the floor at any moment in forward JT Toppin, but its old Southwest Conference foe will get the better of it.
No. 6 BYU over No. 2 Alabama
Regardless of who comes out on top of this matchup, one thing’s close to a certainty: There are going to be a lot of 3-pointers fired up. And that’s putting it mildly. Both the Cougars and Crimson Tide have potent offenses that do significant damage beyond the arc, which could make this a game in which the first team to 90 wins.
BYU has hit a different gear over the past several weeks, with an 11-1 record since Feb. 11. During that stretch, it has been the No. 4 team in the sport, according to data from Bart Torvik, a mark that ranks it behind only Duke, Houston and Florida. After showing their mettle in wins against VCU and Wisconsin, the Cougars will pick up their biggest win yet against an Alabama team looking to get back to the Final Four.
No. 6 Ole Miss over No. 2 Michigan State
There are few teams out there that can match the Spartans from a toughness and physicality standpoint, but the Rebels are one of them. Ole Miss has a senior-laden core that has exceptional balance offensively, with six players averaging at least 10 points per game. Michigan State has one of the nation’s best defenses, but the Rebels just ripped apart a similarly stout Iowa State squad in the second round, putting up 91 points on the Cyclones in a 13-point win.
With 24 victories, tied for the program’s most in the past 23 years, Ole Miss is following a familiar path for coach Chris Beard, who led Texas Tech to an Elite Eight in his second season with the program in 2018. He’s proving to be one of the sport’s best postseason coaches, something that should come through even against Tom Izzo.
No. 3 Kentucky over No. 2 Tennessee
There’s only a one-seed difference between the Wildcats and Volunteers, but with Kentucky a 4.5-point underdog Monday, according to BetMGM, this would qualify as an upset.
Mark Pope’s Wildcats are 2-0 against Tennessee this season despite being without at least one crucial rotation player for each of the matchups. They won’t have dynamic wing Jaxson Robinson, who’s out for the season with an injury, but they didn’t have him for an 11-point win over the Vols in Rupp Arena on Feb. 11.
There’s a trope in college basketball, one often repeated by coaches, that it’s difficult to beat a team three times in one season. Sometimes, though, one team is simply a bad matchup for another, something that doesn’t get any easier with more and more meetings. For Kentucky and Tennessee, that could very well be the case.