Florida vs Houston predictions, picks, odds for men's NCAA championship
Something will have to give on Monday in the 2025 men's NCAA Tournament national championship game.
Houston surrendered a Division I low of just 58.5 points per game, but the high-flying scoring offense of Florida comes in third in the nation, averaging 85.3 points per game. Who will hoist the national championship at the Alamodome at the end of the day will come down to what prevails: offense or defense?
The Cougars are seeking their first national title in school history, returning to the biggest college basketball game for the first time since 1984. Meanwhile, Florida seeks its third national title and the first since repeating during the 2006-07 seasons.
Houston used a late 7-0 run to shock and knock off Cooper Flagg and Duke in Saturday's Final Four despite trailing by 14 points with just over eight minutes left in the game. Florida overcame a nine-point deficit to send Auburn out of the Final Four.
The comebacks set up an interesting national championship matchup. Here's how experts see the national championship game battle between Florida and Houston playing out, along with odds and how to watch:
Florida vs Houston national championship picks and predictions
Jordan Mendoza: After each team pulled off second-half comebacks in the Final Four, which one has enough left to win the national title? Houston proved it could slow down a premier offense like Duke, but no one has had an answer for Walter Clayton Jr. this tournament. Given the “never quit” mentality each team possess, expect this one to go down to the final minutes. The Cougars hit their 3-pointers and are able to limit the Florida star, and they fend off a late rally by the Gators to win their first national championship. Houston 72, Florida 69.
Paul Myerberg: Houston carries over the ferocious rally in the final minutes against Duke and slows down Florida’s perimeter shooting to win the first national title in program history. In addition to its No. 1 defense, the Cougars have another edge in the turnover battle. They rank third in Division in turnover margin while Florida ranks 118th. Houston also leads the nation in 3-point shooting percentage, potentially negating the Gators’ typical production from deep. Houston 71, Florida 63.
Erick Smith: We use cliches in sports like the irresistible force facing the immovable object way too often. This matchup, however, does present a simple premise: Which team will be able to dictate how the game is played? Florida wants to go fast to take advantage of its open-court game and also diminish the half-court defense of Houston. The Cougars, meanwhile, want to slow the game down and make it a grinder. It's hard to see either dominating, and that forecasts a close game down the wire. The Gators have the best clutch player on the court in Walter Clayton Jr. And he does it again for the SEC's first title since 2012. Florida 66, Houston 65.
Eddie Timanus: Picking against Houston at this point seems like a bad idea given the way it has shown the ability to find ways to win in the most difficult of circumstances. Of course, the same can be said of the Gators, who have also staged an improbable comeback or two this postseason. So, one more time, I’ll stick with my choice from the beginning. Florida 68, Houston 65.
Dan Wolken: Both teams have pulled out improbable victories in the NCAA tournament to get to this point, so both may feel that a championship is their destiny. But the Cougars' relentlessness and ability to take away what an opponent does best is the intangible that just wears people out. Houston may not have the most talent, but they've got plenty to hang in a close game, which is the area where they thrive. Betting against Kelvin Sampson with a 40-hour turnaround seems like a bad idea. Houston 61, Florida 57.
Kevin Brockway, Gainesville Sun: Florida 69, Houston 63
"The Gators will be held under 70 points for only the second time this season, but it won't matter. Expect UF to match Houston's physicality and celebrate its third national title in school history."
Florida vs Houston date, start time, where to watch
- Game Day: Monday, April 7
- Game Time: 8:50 p.m. ET
- Location: Alamodome (San Antonio)
- TV Channel: CBS
- Live Stream: Fubo (free trial)
Watch Florida vs Houston national championship on Fubo (free trial)
Florida vs Houston odds
Odds as of Monday, April 7 via BetMGM.
- Spread: Florida (-1.5)
- Over/under: 141.5
- Moneyline: Florida (-115) | Houston (-105)