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Bubble Tracker: Usual Big Ten elites Michigan State, Indiana in hot water

Shelby Mast and Scott Gleeson  |  Paste BN Sports
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In November, usual Big Ten kingpins Michigan State and Indiana were preseason top-12 teams in the coaches poll and projected No. 3 seeds in Paste BN Sports' preseason bracketology.

One week away from March, both the Spartans (16-11, 8-6) and the Hoosiers (15-12, 5-9) are in jeopardy of missing out on the field of 68 — as at-large bids.

In Indiana's case, a four-game losing streak has put it on thin ice. Non-conference wins against forecasted No. 1 seeds Kansas and North Carolina keep the Hoosiers in the at-large discussion but an RPI in the 90s is glaring, as is a loss to IPFW. For much of the season, Tom Crean's group has been somewhat schizophrenic. Now they're just consistently bad, having lost six of seven. A road loss to Iowa this week would all but eliminate the Hoosiers' at-large chances.

Michigan State is a much different story. The Spartans have fared way better in Big Ten play at two games above .500, having beaten Northwestern and Minnesota. But they're lacking the signature win — one they could've gotten at Purdue this past weekend — that would put them over the top.

Now they have a rough four-game stretch that includes two of the league's other top teams, Wisconsin and Maryland, and they'll have to play without third-leading scorer and veteran Eron Harris, who is out for the season with a knee injury. That leaves coach Tom Izzo with a ridiculously young lineup with waves of postseason pressure hanging in the balance. Not an ideal scenario whatsoever. But at least a freshmen-laden roster and injuries could explain an NCAA tournament-less season. Indiana has less room for excuses.

Unlike fellow Big Ten bubble team Michigan, which is trending upward with wins against both Indiana and Michigan State — as well as Wisconsin — it's safe to say both the Hoosiers and Spartans are in the danger zone. This week and next will be as pivotal as it gets for both squads.

BRACKETOLOGY: Full field of 68

Results/records are shown are against Division I opponents only. Breakdown data as of February 20. 

Removed from consideration in this week's tracker:   Houston, Utah

Virginia Tech (In for now)

► Profile: 18-8 (7-7) 35 RPI, 59 SoS, 293 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Duke, Clemson, Syracuse, Ole Miss, Michigan, Georgia Tech, Virginia, Pittsburgh
  • The Bad: No bad losses

Miami (In for now)

► Profile: 18-8 (8-6) 45 RPI, 57 SoS, 252 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, Stanford, Clemson
  • The Bad: No bad losses

Syracuse (In for now)

► Profile: 16-12 (8-7) 86 RPI, 53 SoS, 157 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Florida State, Virginia, Wake Forest, Monmouth, Miami, Clemson, Pittsburgh
  • The Bad: Losses vs. UConn, Saint Johns, Boston College

Clemson (In for now)

► Profile: 14-12 (4-10) 59 RPI, 18 SoS, 99 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. South Carolina, Wake Forest (twice), UNC-Wilmington, Pittsburgh, Georgia, Alabama, Georgia Tech, UNC-Wilmington
  • The Bad: Loss vs. Oklahoma

Georgia Tech (Out for now)

► Profile: 15-11 (7-7) 76 RPI, 48 SoS, 235 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. North Carolina, Florida State, VCU, Notre Dame, Clemson, Syracuse
  • The Bad: Loss vs. Ohio

Wake Forest (Out for now)

► Profile: 15-12 (6-9) 38 RPI, 15 SoS, 17 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Miami, Georgia Tech
  • The Bad: No bad losses

Pittsburgh (Out for now)

► Profile: 15-12 (4-10) 60 RPI, 11 SoS, 38 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Florida State, Virginia, Maryland, Marquette, Penn State, Syracuse
  • The Bad: Losses vs. North Carolina State, Duquesne

VCU (In for now)

► Profile: 22-5 (12-2) 25 RPI, 68 SoS, 70 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Dayton, Mid Tennessee State
  • The Bad: Losses vs. Davidson, Fordham

Dayton (In for now)

► Profile: 20-5 (12-2) 27 RPI, 69 SoS, 36 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Rhode Island (twice), Vanderbilt, Alabama
  • The Bad: Losses vs. Massachusetts 

Michigan (In for now)

► Profile: 17-10 (7-7) 55 RPI, 33 SoS, 95 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. SMU, Michigan State, Illinois, Marquette, Indiana (twice), Wisconsin
  • The Bad: No bad losses

Michigan State (In for now)

► Profile: 16-11 (8-6) 43 RPI, 14 SoS, 18 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Minnesota (twice), Northwestern, Wichita State, Michigan, Ohio State
  • The Bad: Loss vs. Northeastern

Indiana (Out for now)

► Profile: 15-12 (5-9) 90 RPI, 37 SoS, 151 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Kansas, North Carolina, Michigan State, Illinois,
  • The Bad: Loss vs. IPFW

Illinois (Out for now)

► Profile: 14-12 (5-9) 67 RPI, 16 SoS, 47 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. VCU, Northwestern, Ohio State, Michigan
  • The Bad: No bad losses

Penn State (Out for now)

► Profile: 14-13 (6-8) 73 RPI, 25 SoS, 35 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Maryland, Minnesota, Michigan State, Illinois (twice), Georgia Tech
  • The Bad: Losses vs. George Mason, Rutgers, Albany

Marquette (In for now)

► Profile: 16-10 (7-7) 71 RPI, 58 SoS, 244 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Villanova, Creighton, Seton Hall, Vanderbilt, Georgia, Georgetown, Xavier
  • The Bad: Loss vs. Saint Johns

Seton Hall (In for now)

► Profile: 16-10 (6-8) 47 RPI, 35 SoS, 159 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. South Carolina, California, Georgetown, Marquette, Providence, Creighton
  • The Bad: Loss vs. Saint Johns

Georgetown (Out for now)

► Profile: 14-13 (5-9) 61 RPI, 9 SoS, 23 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Butler, Oregon, Creighton, Syracuse
  • The Bad: Losses vs. No bad losses

Providence (Out for now)

► Profile: 16-11 (6-8) 66 RPI, 36 SoS, 194 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Seton Hall, Rhode Island, Vermont, Georgetown (twice), Marquette, Butler, Xavier
  • The Bad: Losses vs. Saint Johns, Boston College, DePaul

TCU (In for now)

► Profile: 16-10 (6-8) 58 RPI, 32 SoS, 113 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Illinois State, Kansas State, Iowa State, Texas Tech
  • The Bad: No bad losses

Kansas State (Out for now)

► Profile: 17-10 (6-8) 57 RPI, 47 SoS, 238 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma State
  • The Bad: No bad losses

Texas Tech (Out for now)

► Profile: 17-10 (5-9) 89 RPI, 88 SoS, 338 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Baylor, West Virginia, TCU, Kansas State
  • The Bad: Losses to Texas, Oklahoma

USC (In for now)

► Profile: 21-6 (8-6) 32 RPI, 74 SoS, 168 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. SMU, UCLA, Stanford
  • The Bad: No bad losses

California (In for now)

► Profile: 18-8 (9-5) 39 RPI, 43 SoS, 77 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. USC, Utah, Stanford
  • The Bad: Loss vs. San Diego State

Arkansas (In for now)

► Profile: 20-7 (9-5) 35 RPI, 61 SoS, 46 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Houston, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Texas Arlington
  • The Bad: Losses vs. Mississippi State, Missouri

Tennessee (In for now)

► Profile: 14-12 (7-7) 50 RPI, 10 SoS, 9 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Kentucky, Kansas State, Vanderbilt, Auburn, Ole Miss, Georgia Tech
  • The Bad: Loss vs. Mississippi State

Vanderbilt (Out for now)

► Profile: 13-13 (6-7) 49 RPI, 3 SoS, 1 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Florida, Iowa State, Arkansas, Belmont, Auburn, South Carolina
  • The Bad: Loss vs. Missouri

Alabama (Out for now)

► Profile: 16-10 (9-5) 74 RPI, 64 SoS, 82 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Georgia
  • The Bad: Loss vs. Texas

Georgia (Out for now)

 ►Profile: 14-12 (6-8) 56 RPI, 13 SoS, 24 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Vanderbilt, Auburn, Ole Miss, Georgia Tech, Tennessee
  • The Bad: Loss vs. Oakland

Ole Miss (Out for now)

► Profile: 16-11 (7-7) 70 RPI, 40 SoS, 50 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Auburn (twice), Memphis
  • The Bad: No bad losses

Assume these teams do not win their conference tourney to secure the auto-bid.

Saint Mary’s (In for now)

► Profile: 24-3 (14-2) 16 RPI, 76 SoS, 65 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Dayton, Nevada, Stanford
  • The Bad: No bad losses

Middle Tennessee State (Out for now)

► Profile: 23-4 (14-1) 31 RPI, 122 SoS, 16 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. UNC-Wilmington, Vanderbilt, Belmont, Ole Miss
  • The Bad: Losses vs. Georgia State, Tennessee State, UTEP

Illinois State (Out for now)

► Profile: 22-5 (15-1) 33 RPI, 140 SoS, 115 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Win vs. Wichita State
  • The Bad: Losses vs. Tulsa, Murray State

Wichita State (Out for now) 

► Profile: 24-4 (15-1) 41 RPI, 155 SoS, 181 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Win vs. Illinois State
  • The Bad: No bad losses

***

Note: All RPI and statistical data is used from WarrenNolan.com.

About our bracketologist: Shelby Mast has been projecting the field since 2005 and has finished as one of the top 5 national bracketologists for his website, Bracket W.A.G. He’s predicted for The Indianapolis Star, collegeinsider.com and is an inaugural member of the Super 10 Selection Committee. Follow him on Twitter @BracketWag.

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