Playoff Projection: Georgia on their minds
Though the top four teams in the Football Four Playoff Projection remain the same from last week, Georgia's win against LSU shows just how much bearing one result can have on the postseason.
One week after placing fifth in the voting, LSU was blanked this week, going without a single vote from the Paste BN Sports expert panel for the first time this season. Meanwhile Georgia, which beat the Tigers 44-41 last Saturday, became the fifth-place team and even got one first-place vote for the first time.
"Georgia moves into my top-four this week based on the strength of its wins against LSU and South Carolina, and the fact the one loss was on the road (and by three points) to the No. 3 team," said Hugh Kellenberger of the Jackson (Miss.) Clarion-Ledger. "That's a worthy résumé, especially for this early in the year."
PREVIOUS PROJECTIONS: Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4
Panelists Dan Shanoff (the first-place voter), George Schroeder and Dan Wolken also had the Bulldogs on their ballots despite Georgia having a loss on its ledger – albeit to the No. 3 team in the projection.
"Nobody else in the country has two wins the quality of Georgia, and nobody else has played as tough a schedule," Wolken said. "So even though the Bulldogs have a loss, I think they are playoff-worthy at this moment in time ahead of undefeated teams that haven't played anyone."
Oregon is coming off a win against Cal in which it doubled Ohio State's victory margin vs. the Bears from earlier this season. After facing Colorado this week, the Ducks meet three teams currently ranked the top 20 of the polls in less than a four-week span.
As always, the Playoff Projection is intended to show what the College Football Playoff pairings might be if they were to be set today. This is purely a mock selection with no bearing on any official polls, rankings or standings.
The panel's projections will be published each week during the 2013 season, just like the BCS Standings that debut October 20.
Based on the votes of our 16-person panel, if the playoff were to be set today, the semifinal pairings would be:
No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Ohio State
No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 3 Clemson
Four points are awarded for a first-place vote, three points for a No. 2, two for No. 3 and one for a No. 4. Those points are then summed for each team that received a vote. Here are this week's complete results:
1. Alabama (59), 2. Oregon (43), 3. Clemson (30), 4. Ohio State (14), 5. Georgia (7), 6. Stanford (6), 7. Texas A&M (1).
The running tally of points this season (out of 800):
1. Alabama (287), 2. Oregon (190), 3. Clemson (157), 4. Ohio State (82), 5. LSU (26), 6. Georgia (21), 7. Stanford (16), 8, Texas A&M (6), 9. (tie) Michigan, UCLA, Washington (4), 12. Ole Miss (2), 13. Florida State (1).
In the panelists' words:
Ryan Dunleavy, New Jersey Press Media: "I considered moving Clemson ahead of Ohio State and I considered moving Stanford into the Top 4 ahead of Clemson and/or Ohio State but in the end I kept it the same as last week."
Joe Rexrode, Detroit Free Press: "For the first time, Oregon doesn't make the cut for me — not because the Ducks aren't good enough, but because they haven't done as much as the four teams ahead of them. Stanford jumps in after a blowout win vs. Washington State, a week after handling Arizona State.Luckily, those two will settle things on Nov. 7. Ohio State took care of what is probably the No. 2 team in the Big Ten, Wisconsin, with a win more convincing than the final score suggests. Alabama easily has the best resume and Clemson's win over Georgia just gets better with age."
George Schroeder, Paste BN Sports: "Georgia played a crazy tough schedule to start; to emerge with only a road loss at Clemson is huge. The victory over LSU in a new-age SEC classic — meaning the league is learning what other leagues already understood about how difficult it is to stop good offenses — propels the Bulldogs into my top four.
"Alabama and Oregon — or Oregon and Alabama, as I have it this week — seem to have settled in as a consensus top two. That could change. The meat of Oregon's season is still to come, and the Pac-12 might be the best top-to-bottom league in the country. And although Alabama's overall schedule doesn't appear as daunting as the Ducks', the Tide could still trip — and that's before we talk about LSU's trip to Tuscaloosa, or maybe a Georgia in the SEC championship game."
Dan Wolken, Paste BN Sports: "The schedules will even out, somewhat, as the year goes along but at this point I simply can't give Oregon or Ohio State a vote based on their resume. Obviously, Ohio State will be able to jump into the top-4 if they can go on the road and beat Northwestern, but Oregon will have to wait a little longer. Oklahoma also received some consideration, as did UCLA and Miami."
Football Four is on Twitter @TheFootballFour.
Like the Playoff Projection? Come back Thursday and, along with our friends from Prediction Machine, we'll show you who wins.