Tailgate Debate: How will Oregon, Michigan State handle the heat?
A number of questions about the 2014 college football season will get some answers today. Let's provide some of our own first:
Uthman: This week's college football big game lineup is low on quantity but high on quality. Four of the top 14 teams in the Amway Coaches Poll go head-to-head, and No. 15 Notre Dame hosts Michigan in the finale (for now) of an intense and competitive rivalry.
One of those top-14 matchups pits No. 6 Michigan State against No. 4 Oregon. It's forecasted for a wildly unseasonable 97 degrees in Eugene today. Who does that favor?
Yomtov: First and foremost, I had no clue it ever got that hot in the Pacific Northwest.
I would say the blistering heat actually favors Michigan State. We've seen Stanford methodically wear down Oregon by dominating possession and the Spartans do it just as well as (if not better than) the Ducks' Pac-12 kryptonite. Considering Oregon's recent history and with what Mother Nature is presenting, I see the team's defense getting absolutely exhausted.
Michigan State had the second-ranked rushing defense in the nation last season and despite plenty of roster turnover, allowed just 22 yards on the ground last week against Jacksonville State. What do you think Oregon needs to do in order to run the ball successfully today?
Uthman: Well, there have been more days north of 90 degrees here this summer than the previous three years combined, but 97-degree college football gamedays in Eugene are rarer than non-conferennce games matching top 10 teams.
All that said, Oregon needs to at least have a short passing game to keep Michigan State from filling up the box and the edges to stop the run. Oregon's quarterbacks last week combined for a .781 completion percentage, and Marcus Mariota may need to hit .700 on Saturday for Oregon to do what it wants against Michigan State.
Two things to watch other than the heat waves radiating from the turf: One, Oregon figures Michigan State will blitz more than most opponents the Ducks see. And two, Michigan State wants to score more than once early to take the notoriously loud crowd out of it, so look for the Spartans to make some aggressive playcalls from the start.
Jesse, one of the cool things about this weekend is that Oregon's game will be kicking off just as its biggest competitor in the Pac-12 North is reaching its climax. No. 10 Stanford vs. No. 14 USC could be as big a clash of styles and wills and talent as the game 10 hours to the north. Last week USC snapped the ball a Pac-12 single-game record 105 times in a win against Fresno State. And it did so not running a zone-read option offense, but a pro style. It was almost like Stanford or Alabama in hyperdrive.
We've seen Stanford shut down the hurry up read option in the past, but how do you think the Cardinal will fare against the tweaked approach of the Trojans?
Yomtov: The 105 plays stat has been brought up a lot over the past week, but it's fairly deceptive. Even though USC was running a no-huddle offense, the team wasn't exactly lightning fast, running just 2.7 plays per minute. Fresno State was actually quicker, getting off about 3.3 snaps every minute.
Still, Sarkisian's no-huddle offense is vastly different from what Stanford saw last season at the LA Coliseum. Cody Kessler has been fantastic in the Trojans' last six games, completing 69% of his passes for 14 touchdowns with just one interception.
The keys for Stanford are getting pressure on Kessler and stopping USC on third down. Kessler was sacked just twice in this matchup last season (a USC win) and looked generally comfortable in the pocket. That can't happen tonight. The right side of USC's offensive line is enormous (350- and 370-pounders), and might not be able to counter Stanford's speed off the edge.
The Trojans were 11 for 18 on third down last week and that success moving the chains is the main reason they were able to run 105 plays. If Stanford can get USC's offense off the field more often than not, the Cardinal will be in good shape.
Let's talk about the other side of the ball. Stanford is relying on much smaller running backs than in past seasons and isn't as well-equipped for its trademark power running game. That means the Cardinal is going to rely heavily on quarterback Kevin Hogan, who sputtered in this game last season, but do you think the senior is up for the challenge this time around?
Uthman: Hogan more than tripled his interception total to 10 last season, and two of them came against the Trojans. He did not help the Cardinal in its loss at USC, completing 56% of his passes for 127 yards. But Hogan is 10-1 as a starter against ranked teams, and he and his coaches have been frank about the opportunities missed in 2013.
Thanks to the bountiful quarterback crop in the league, the only pressure and attention on Hogan comes from within, and he has the maturity and physical skills — not to mention a lot of positive guidance from his predecessor Andrew Luck — that I think will make this season and this game a good one.
Let's transition to another quarterback who backslid in 2013, all the way out of college football in this case. No. 15 Notre Dame plays host to Michigan in a matchup of two teams outside the pool of perceived playoff contenders. Everett Golson looked fantastic in the offseason and again last Saturday in a season-opening win against Rice. Can the Irish get enough from him today to defray the combination of the Devins, Gardner and Funchess?
Yomtov: To quote Brian Kelly, Golson's performance last week was "electric." It was against a significantly inferior opponent in Rice, but if that outing was any indication of Golson's progress in the last 19 months, he and Notre Dame will really surprise some people (myself included). Tonight in South Bend is an excellent litmus test. Golson wasn't asked to do all that much much during the Irish's run to the national championship game two seasons ago, but Kelly has made it clear his quarterback has the freedom to let loose.
One thing that stuck with me from the 2012 season was Golson's skill at improvisation. He's capable of making things happen once he escapes the pocket, and I think we'll see him but up some big numbers in a high-scoring Notre Dame win.
Now that we've touched on the biggest games of the week, what are some sneaky good matchups that you've got your eyes on today?
Uthman: Here are some other games that will get my attention today:
— Two games pitting first-year coaches against Power Five conference members as Western Kentucky visits Illinois at noon and UAB visits Mississippi State at 2.
— Northern Illinois aiming to keep Northwestern winless at 3:30 p.m.
— East Carolina at No. 21 South Carolina in a 7 p.m. game featuring two talented teams that should be highly motivated for different reasons.
— Colorado State at Boise State in what should be a great MWC matchup at 10:15 p.m. Is a changing of the guard underway?
— And No. 3 Oklahoma-Tulsa, No. 22 Missouri-Toledo and No. 16 Arizona State-New Mexico only because it's nice to see Power Five teams willing to go play in Group of Five teams' stadiums.
Let the games begin.
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