Why scoring efficiency could help the Playoff committee

When the College Football Playoff selection committee convenes Monday in Grapevine, Texas, there won't be a lack of material on which they will base their decisions. Some will rely on data provided by SportSource Analytics. Some will rely on notes they've compiled since Week 1 of this season.

But with the committee charged with identifying what are the "best" teams based on its consensus definition of "best", the 13-member panel would see some value in examining scoring efficiency.

Dave Bartoo, the mind behind CFBMatrix.com, has calculated efficiency numbers for every offense and defense in the Football Bowl Subdivision through eight weeks of play and believes those numbers can help gauge which teams that are playing the best offensively and defensively. Scoring efficiency is one of a number of somewhat overlooked metrics or resources that can provide a picture of comparative quality among FBS teams.

"I think it's good for two reasons: promoting balanced football, offensively and defensively, and creating the best matchups," Bartoo said. "I'm looking for the teams that are best on both sides of the ball. I also see it as a very good tool for creating matchups that are compelling. You can match up strong offense vs. strong offense, You can match up strong offense vs. strong defense."

Bartoo calculates total scoring efficiency by subtracting the points per play a team allows on defense from the points per play it scores on offense.

Twenty teams in the current Amway Coaches Poll rank in the top 25 of the FBS in total scoring efficiency. The outliers are No. 19 Utah (27th in scoring efficiency), No. 15 Arizona (34th), No. 24 Minnesota (39th), No. 25 West Virginia (70th) and No. 20 Clemson (71st).

Knowing scoring efficiency can also help project scoring levels. Oregon and Cal entered their game Friday with the nation's fourth- and 13th-most efficient offenses, respectively, but the 44th- and 110th-most efficient defenses. That partly explains why the Ducks and Bears combined for 100 points.

Efficiency numbers also may provide an indication of which current contenders may not remain so. "If you want to identify teams that could find themselves outside of the top 25 before long, look at the ones that are not efficient," Bartoo said.

A complete ranking of run and pass defense efficiency is below.Some examples are Arizona, whose pass offense is the 55th-most efficient in FBS, and Kansas State, which has the 115th-most efficient pass defense. Could West Virginia be in danger because it has the 57th-most efficient defense in FBS? Is Utah's 47th-most efficient offense a reason for concern for the Utes?

In addition to seeding the four-team playoff, the selection committee also is placing eight other teams in the remaining "New Year's Six" bowl games. If those selections were based solely on total scoring efficiency through Week 8, the top 11 power conference teams in order would be Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi State, Ohio State, Oregon, Nebraska, TCU, Auburn, Florida State and Michigan State. Marshall is the most efficient team in the Group of Five conferences.

CFBMatrix has a complete list of defense, offense and total efficiency. Additional breakdowns will be posted in coming weeks based on home vs. away performance and strength of schedule-adjusted scoring efficiency.